Quarterbacks
Start: Kirk Cousins (LV) vs. NO
Kirk Cousins has been a nice value in both dynasty and redraft to start the year. He was essentially free in both formats coming into the season and is currently QB11 through two weeks, averaging 18.51 fantasy points per game. It’s only Week 3, and we’ve already had several significant quarterback injuries. This has allowed some lower preseason quarterbacks to rise in the ranks. Cousins has been one of those quarterbacks and has given managers who rostered him plenty of value.
While Cousins won’t produce much on the ground for fantasy, he’s been getting it done through the air without tight end Brock Bowers . He faces a New Orleans Saints defense in Week 3 that has been on the wrong side of the table, ranking 18th in points per play allowed (EPA/Play). While the Saints have been worse against the run, they haven’t been much better against the pass. Expect Cousins to have to throw to keep up with the Saints’ quarterback Tyler Shough and company, who are projected to have the 11th-highest team implied total this week.
While Cousins didn’t wow anyone in Week 1 against Miami, he’s now gone back-to-back games with throwing for three touchdowns, again without their most talented offensive receiving weapon, Brock Bowers, who is expected to return this week. Over two weeks, Cousins has pushed the ball downfield with an 8.8 average depth of target (aDOT). He’s not just checking the ball down, as he showed the ability to hit chunk plays against the Chargers last week with an 8.7 yards per attempt.
He’s doing solid despite his receivers doing him no favors. His completion percentage is a less-than-ideal 68.7%, but when you dig deeper, his adjusted completion percentage is 77.2%. If there’s any positive regression in this area, Cousins stands to benefit despite not throwing for more than 30 attempts thus far in a game.
It also helps that they’ll be playing in the dome, so weather won’t play a factor in this matchup. If you’re a team dealing with quarterback injuries, Cousins makes a fine plug-and-play option this week as a makeshift Flex Seal patch for your roster.
Sit: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) vs. NE
Trevor Lawrence has been a tale of two cities over two weeks. He’s been a top-five producing fantasy quarterback, putting up 26.10 fantasy points in Week 1. However, he also showed his floor against good defenses like the Denver Broncos, where he put up just 7.16 fantasy points and finished QB29 that week.
Long-term, I don’t have many concerns with Lawrence; however, Week 3 presents another difficult matchup against the New England Patriots. The Patriots have been a top-three defense in EPA/Play this year and have been slightly better against the pass (-0.197 EPA) compared to the run (-0.134 EPA).
While Lawrence has an aggressive 11.1 aDOT through two weeks, that aggressiveness has turned into four turnover-worthy plays. Compared to his single big-time throw, that makes him a risky start against good defensive secondaries. Consensus is ignoring the risk, as he’s ranked as the QB9 for Week 3. The Patriots defense allows under 200 passing yards per game, with just one touchdown and a quarterback rating of 78.1. Trevor Lawrence will have to ball out to be a top-10 option in this week’s tough matchup. I think that outcome is a little too optimistic. If possible, find a better option inside the top 15 of quarterback rankings this week, as this is far from a cakewalk matchup.
Tight Ends
Start: Oronde Gadsden (LAC) vs. BUF
Now that both Charlie Kolar and David Njoku are out with injury, that TE1 spot belongs to Oronde Gadsden ! Last year, Gadsden showcased his explosive playmaking ability but hasn’t had much opportunity this year, as offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel has leaned on his veteran players. We’ve seen him flash when he gets the chance, and with tight ends as a whole being pretty underwhelming so far this season, we need to shoot for upside. This is especially true if you don’t have an elite option at the position.
Gadsden is the consensus TE17 this week, and he may still be available on waivers in some leagues. In that range, he clearly offers the highest-upside shot. The Buffalo Bills have put up numbers this year on offense, as quarterback Josh Allen continues to dominate opposing defenses regardless of the matchup. To keep up, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will have to play to the level he's been hyped to. His primary wide receiver, Ladd McConkey , is still attempting to play through a rib injury, and this offense clearly needs a spark.
The good news is that the Buffalo Bills have been an exploitable defense. They are the fifth-worst defense in EPA/Play and have been particularly bad against the pass. They have allowed the third-highest success rate for opposing quarterback dropbacks. They’ve allowed 300 yards passing per game and a QB rating of 118.4. This is a nice bounce-back opportunity for the Chargers as they work through their early-season growing pains.
Gadsden isn’t so much a true tight end as he is a big-bodied wide receiver. This year he’s lined up inside just 39.8% of the time, while being both in the slot (30.8%) and out wide (30.8%) more often. Herbert will be desperate for a reliable safety blanket, and he has a history of success with Gadsden from last year. With the tight end position devoid of significant options, this is a home run swing I don’t hate taking this week.
Sit: Isaiah Likely (NYG) vs. TEN
The matchup isn’t terrible for Likely, but the new quarterback situation might be. Quarterback Jaxson Dart is now out for the year with the knee injury he sustained last week. That’s going to deflate this entire offense. Backup quarterback Jameis Winston has made a career out of being a fantasy-friendly, gunslinging backup, but he looked terrible last week.
Winston wasn’t called upon to air it out, as this offense is very run-heavy and will continue to operate that way, as evidenced by their -5.7 pass rate over expected.
The Giants aren’t anticipated to put up big numbers this week either, as their implied team total is ranked 20th at just 21.0 points. With both offenses struggling to produce big plays through the air, expect a more boring, run-heavy game that suffocates fantasy production from any passing attack.
Isaiah Likely is commanding a decent target volume, earning over eight in each contest this season, but he hasn’t done much after the catch, with 1.6 yards after the catch per reception, and now has a downgrade in quarterback play. He’s a touchdown-dependent check-down merchant, not the breakout tight end people were hoping for at the start of the season. Consensus rankings have him as TE8 this week, but I think there are better options inside the top 15 at the position.
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