Wide Receivers
Start: Jalen Coker (CAR) vs. CLE
For some reason, Jalen Coker is still being ranked outside of the top 20 at the position this week. While I don’t think he’s a top-20 talent at the position, I do think he has another great matchup to produce for fantasy.
The Cleveland Browns are a team we should target to start players against in fantasy. They allow the 24th most points per game to opposing offenses and have been a soft, bend-don’t-break pass defense, with a middling 0.073 dropback-earned points-per-play average.
The debate over whether Coker or fellow wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan is the WR1 for this Carolina offense still hasn’t been settled for many. However, it doesn’t seem to matter much, as both are used similarly. Both wide receivers have an 80%+ snap share, 89.2% route participation, and a 27.3% target share. Our Sit/Start Tool has them near even. Bryce Young is hitting his targets, with a 77% adjusted completion percentage (ADJ%) and six touchdowns already.
The Panthers are favored to win this week with a 22.5 team implied point total. Quarterback Bryce Young and the Panthers wide receiving group have been dominating offenses lately, so this isn’t the week to avoid them. Granted, it’s been a complete cupcake schedule. Week 3 provides another exploitable defense that should yield more success. Coker is in a good spot to exceed consensus expectations yet again.
Sit: Malik Nabers (NYG) vs. TEN
What a series of unfortunate events for the Giants. What looked like the start of a breakout for this offense got derailed just a few plays into Week 2 with the Jaxson Dart knee injury. Malik Nabers also suffered a shoulder injury, but was limited at practice this week and is still expected to play.
Some will point to gunslinger backup quarterback Jameis Winston as a potential boon for Nabers since he’s willing to just toss the ball with minimal concern of causing turnovers. Throughout his career, he’s been a very fantasy-friendly quarterback with this mentality. However, it’s wise to pump the brakes on this kind of narrative. Winston was objectively terrible in Week 2, with a horrific ADJ% of 44%. Even after you remove any drops, he was brutal. During his media session, he blamed his struggles on the opposing defense predicting the pass.
As I alluded to in my rationale for lowering expectations on Giants tight end Isaiah Likely this week, the Giants want to run the ball first. This isn’t going to change into a pass-happy offense just because Winston is now manning the ship. Even after taking over when Dart went down early last week, Winston threw only 27 passes. I love Nabers in dynasty, but with him banged up, the offense leaning on the run game, and a wildcard at Jameis Winston, fading Nabers at WR13 consensus ranking this week is an easy decision for me. With the team implied total ranking 20th this week at 21.0 points, this spells out a boring, low-scoring affair. Nabers is likely to struggle to put up fringe WR1 numbers for you this week.
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Running Backs
Start: Quinshon Judkins (CLE) vs. CAR
If you follow me on X/Twitter , then you know how I’ve felt about Quinshon Judkins going into this season. I think the talent is good, but the environment leaves something to be desired. Many experts ranked him as a top-12 dynasty running back, and I never agreed with that take. Not only was he coming back from a significant injury, but he isn’t a prolific pass catcher, and the offense was projected to be one of the worst in the league again this year.
That being said, Judkins will still have some weeks where he pops off for fantasy. He’s too talented and should see too much volume not to have a good week occasionally, even on a bad offense. It’ll be more matchup-dependent than other running backs. This is the kind of week where that opportunity comes up for him.
The Panthers are a terrible defense so far this year, ranking bottom-12 in the league for EPA/play. The Chicago Bears torched them on the ground in Week 1, and Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson also found success against them in Week 2 with 72 yards on just 16 attempts. Over two weeks, the Panthers defense has allowed more damage on the ground than through the air. They’ve allowed just under 200 pass yards per game and two passing touchdowns, but have bled 224 yards per game and six rushing touchdowns on the ground.
Judkins is the consensus RB25 this week, and I think he can exceed expectations against this porous Panthers run defense. To add to his fantasy point floor, he’s been more involved in the receiving game ever since fellow running back Dylan Sampson went on the IR. If there's a defense to exploit for Judkins to sneak into the top-15 at the position, this is one of them. He’s got one of the highest upsides in this range of consensus-ranked running backs for Week 3, especially if his quarterback, Deshaun Watson , Week 2 performance wasn’t a complete fluke.
Sit: De’Von Achane (MIA) vs. KC
If you drafted Achane this year, you’ve been massively disappointed with his fantasy production. You drafted him in the first round in redraft leagues, and he’s produced nothing close to RB1 numbers.
There were valid reasons to fade Achane coming into this season, as he now has Malik Willis at quarterback, who doesn’t dump the ball off at nearly the same rate as his former teammate Tua Tagovailoa. On top of that, this Miami offense was rationally predicted to be one of the worst in the league. It’s hard to get much going when Malik Willis has a bunch of average NFL talent to throw passes to outside of Achane.
Miami now faces a formidable, revamped Kansas City offense led by Patrick Mahomes and their new workhorse running back, Kenneth Walker . While the Chiefs haven’t done well against the run from a Rush EPA/Play perspective and rank 29th, they've allowed only 90 yards per game on the ground. Their offense forces teams to play catch-up to their explosive attack.
Expect that to continue this week, as the Chiefs are massive favorites, with the number one-ranked team’s implied total at 29.0 points. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are projected to struggle to put up much of a fight, as their team implied total of 17.5 points sits at 31st overall this week.
Consensus has Achane as a top-12 running back option this week, but unless he falls into some touchdown luck, I think that’s a stretch. I expect more of what we’ve seen thus far: an RB2 floor, but he needs to score to sneak into the top 12. Touchdowns are the most volatile stat to bet on, but I don’t like his odds this week at +120 for an anytime touchdown. It’s not Achane’s talent; it’s the Miami environment that I’m comfortable betting against.
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