Everyone knows Kyle Schwarber is the favorite.
He's leading baseball in home runs.
He's hitting in his home park.
The betting market loves him.
But sportsbooks already know all of that.
Instead, I wanted to answer a different question.
If we completely ignored season-long reputation and only looked at who is swinging the hottest bat entering tonight, who would actually win the Derby?
To find out, I analyzed every participant's batted-ball profile from July 5 through July 12 , grading hitters by:
• Pull Rate
• Average Exit Velocity
• Barrel Rate
• Ideal Attack Launch Angle %
Then I compared those results against season-long Home Run Derby indicators from Ballpark Pal and current DraftKings odds.
The biggest surprises weren't at the top...
They were hiding in the betting market.
Step 1: Who Is Actually Hitting the Ball Best Right Now?
Recent contact quality heavily favored two hitters.
Ben Rice (+850)
Recent Week
• 96.8 MPH Average Exit Velocity ( 1st ) • 22.7% Barrel Rate ( 2nd ) • 50% Pull Rate • 53.8% Ideal Attack Angle
Nobody hit the baseball harder over the last week.
Rice paired the best exit velocity in the field with elite barrel rates and a pull profile built for left-field power.
If the Derby rewarded "who is swinging the hottest bat entering tonight," Rice would be the favorite.
Instead...
DraftKings prices him seventh.
That's exactly the kind of disconnect bettors should look for.