Everyone knows Kyle Schwarber is the favorite.
He's leading baseball in home runs.
He's hitting in his home park.
The betting market loves him.
But sportsbooks already know all of that.
Instead, I wanted to answer a different question.
If we completely ignored season-long reputation and only looked at who is swinging the hottest bat entering tonight, who would actually win the Derby?
To find out, I analyzed every participant's batted-ball profile from July 5 through July 12 , grading hitters by:
• Pull Rate
• Average Exit Velocity
• Barrel Rate
• Ideal Attack Launch Angle %
Then I compared those results against season-long Home Run Derby indicators from Ballpark Pal and current DraftKings odds.
The biggest surprises weren't at the top...
They were hiding in the betting market.
Step 1: Who Is Actually Hitting the Ball Best Right Now?
Recent contact quality heavily favored two hitters.
Ben Rice (+850)
Recent Week
• 96.8 MPH Average Exit Velocity ( 1st ) • 22.7% Barrel Rate ( 2nd ) • 50% Pull Rate • 53.8% Ideal Attack Angle
Nobody hit the baseball harder over the last week.
Rice paired the best exit velocity in the field with elite barrel rates and a pull profile built for left-field power.
If the Derby rewarded "who is swinging the hottest bat entering tonight," Rice would be the favorite.
Instead...
DraftKings prices him seventh.
That's exactly the kind of disconnect bettors should look for.
Willson Contreras (+1400)
Recent Week
• 25.0% Barrel Rate ( 1st ) • 62.5% Pull Rate ( 2nd ) • 94.5 MPH Exit Velocity • 54.5% Ideal Attack Angle
Contreras checks almost every box.
He barreled one out of every four baseballs during the sample while consistently pulling baseballs in the air.
Even more impressive...
His +1400 odds are the longest in the field despite producing arguably the best recent contact profile.
If recent form matters at all...
Contreras may be the biggest value on the board.
Step 2: Does Season-Long Derby Data Agree?
This is where things got interesting.
Ballpark Pal's Derby model still loves Kyle Schwarber.
He leads the field in:
• Expected Home Runs (26.1)
• Home Run Candidate Fly Balls (42)
• Home Runs on Meatballs
• Home Runs on In-Zone pitches
• 400+ Foot Fly Balls
Simply put...
Nobody has produced more "Derby-quality" contact over the course of the season. ( ESPN )
But the next tier is much tighter than betting odds suggest.
Player
Expected HR
Candidate Fly Balls
Avg HR Distance
Schwarber
26.1
42
390 ft
Caminero
23.9
34
401 ft
Rice
23.7
40
383 ft
Contreras
20.9
31
394 ft
Rice trails Schwarber by just 2.4 expected home runs over an entire season while producing nearly as many Derby-quality fly balls.
That's impressive considering he's available at nearly three times the betting price.
Why Kyle Schwarber Is Still the Favorite
This isn't an anti-Schwarber article.
There are plenty of reasons sportsbooks made him the favorite.
• MLB-leading 32 home runs
• Most expected home runs in the field
• Most home run candidate fly balls
• Citizens Bank Park familiarity
• Previous Derby experience
• One of baseball's quickest paths to left field ( SB Nation )
If anyone deserves favorite status...
It's Schwarber.
The question isn't whether he can win.
It's whether +310 accurately reflects his chances.
The Market May Be Undervaluing Form
Sportsbooks naturally price:
• reputation
• season totals
• public betting
Recent contact quality often receives less attention.
That creates opportunities.
Rice and Contreras aren't just "hot."
They're producing elite combinations of exit velocity, barrels, and pull-side damage entering the Derby.
That's exactly what you want in a swing competition.
Final Betting Value Rankings
⭐ 1. Willson Contreras (+1400)
Best barrel rate.
Elite pull percentage.
Excellent exit velocity.
Longest odds.
The definition of a value play.
⭐⭐ 2. Ben Rice (+850)
Best exit velocity in the field.
Second-most candidate fly balls this season.
One of the strongest week-long power profiles entering tonight.
The betting market still hasn't fully caught up.
⭐⭐⭐ 3. Kyle Schwarber (+310)
Still the most likely winner.
But not necessarily the best betting value.
Final Prediction
🏆 Winner: Ben Rice (+850)
🥈 Runner-Up: Kyle Schwarber (+310)
🥉 Semifinalists:
• Willson Contreras (+1400)
• Junior Caminero (+425)
Final Thoughts
Predicting the Home Run Derby is inherently difficult. It's a small-sample event where rhythm, stamina, and even batting practice pitcher chemistry can swing an entire round.
That's why this isn't meant to be a perfect projection.
It's an attempt to identify where recent underlying performance differs from public perception and sportsbook pricing.
The betting market clearly believes Kyle Schwarber is the man to beat—and for good reason.
But if you're looking for players whose current swing quality may be undervalued, two names separate themselves from the rest of the field:
Ben Rice.
Willson Contreras.
Those are the two bets I'd want in my pocket when the first pitch is thrown tonight.