Reading a price drop
A cheaper price is a question, not a verdict. The board says the price moved; whether that is an opening depends on what moved it.
What makes a drop worth acting on
- Proven talent — a track record the market has paid for before
- A cause that ends: a short absence, a slow start, a crowded rotation
- The role is intact — the minutes and the shots are still there for him
- Youth, which buys time for the price to come back
What makes it a trap
- A price falling for a reason that does not end — a lost job, a long injury
- A club that has moved on from him
- Age past the curve, where a fall rarely reverses
How to work the window
- Ask after two or three quiet games, not after a season-ending injury
- Read the club's situation as closely as the player's
- Offer on today's price, and say out loud what you think it returns to