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Overlapping cross-book lines: the window where both legs win, the locked baseline, and the price of every lottery — ranked by EV.
The Scout’s Notebook
A college basketball middle is an Over at a low total and an Under at a higher one, bought at two different books, which returns a locked baseline either way and a jackpot if the final score lands in the gap. Whether it is worth holding depends on how often a college game finishes on those numbers — and this board answers that by counting the games.
Fitted against those same 17,242 games, a Normal on the college total scores a chi-squared per degree of freedom of 2.18 — over the line of 2 where a shape is refused, if only just — so the counted landings are used rather than the curve.
The width is college basketball's own: the final total swings 18.85 points around a mean of 146.8, against 20.51 for the NBA around a total some 75 points higher.
Priced slices today: full game only. No college half scores have been derived here, and no college player-prop spread has been measured, so halves and props ship arbitrage — which needs no probability model — and no middles. Spreads and moneylines are refused too: the college margin is measured and its shape fails the same test, so no window is priced on it.
No. The college total sits about 75 points lower on a 40-minute clock and swings 18.85 points around its mean, so the same window is a different bet. Every window on this board is priced against college games only.
Because no one has measured how widely a college player's stat line swings, and borrowing the NBA's number would price a college scorer as if he were a pro. Prop pairs still appear as arbitrage, which needs no model.
Learn more: College basketball arbitrage — the same card, locked
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