Week 5 Recap
Let me first say I’m sorry. I had the Dallas Cowboys as my Lock for Week 5, and they were a massive letdown. I should have followed my guy and continued to avoid Thursday night games.
It was a rough week, going 1-2 with only the Texans winning over the Titans. A game that went against my rule of not picking divisional games. The Ravens were able to beat the Falcons even with a backup quarterback.
I will continue to provide the best matchups and information I can going forward, but if you followed my advice last week, you are like me and out of your survivor pool.
The Rules
Let’s go back to the rules. As a reminder, here are the current rules 1- No divisional games
2- Travel Kills. We want home games
3- Keep track of the Vegas odds
4- Avoid sparks (new coach, QB)
New Rule
Week 6 brings in a new rule. All the old rules were about avoiding certain teams. The new rule is about finding the team you want to target. The rule is -Extra Time coming from Byes
Simply, we want to target teams who are coming off their bye week when we can. They had an extra week to prepare for their opponent. They had time to rest and heal up. They are ready. Last season, teams coming off byes went 17-15.
Twice, teams coming off a bye played each other, so really 15-13. In those 13 losses, 7 of them were against divisional opponents, which is why that is Rule 1.
We have the Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs coming off bye this week.
Week 6 Picks
Lock
Panthers over Eagles
First example of the new rule in place. The Carolina Panthers are coming off the bye. They do travel to Philly, but the Eagles are coming back from London, so their sleep schedule is all messed up.
The Eagles have not looked good and have a ton of injuries across the board, but especially at the skill positions. The Panthers have looked very good this season. They have scored over 30 points in three out of the four games this year.
Vegas has this game at a -1.5 point spread for the home Eagles. It was announced on Thursday that Eagles starting quarterback Jalen Hurts would miss the game due to a blood clot. It shifted the line to a -3.5 for the Panthers.
It’s a massive swing. One that most people will be on now. Nothing wrong with taking the chalk.
In Consideration
Jaguars vs Houston
We have a London game here. Yes, I hate travel, but the Jaguars have stayed in London since last week, so they have had time to adjust and get over the jet lag. The Texans will be flying in for this game.
The Jaguars are 2-0 when they play the second London game, scoring over 25 points in both games. The Texans are coming off their first win and the addition of wide receiver Marvin Harrison . While that could be a spark (Rule 4) I think it takes him another week to get fully integrated into the system and playbook.
Vegas has this at -2.5 for the “home” Jaguars. It’s a divisional game, which can always be wonky, but I think the international travel makes it harder to be at peak performance.
In Consideration
Rams vs Cardinals
It’s hard not to pick divisional games when they are 6 out of the 14 games. I’m okay picking this with how bad the Arizona Cardinals have been.
They just traded away Marvin Harrison ; they are averaging only 21 points per game and have allowed 32.4 points per game. The Rams are averaging 28.5 points per game after their sleepy Week 1 performance in Australia.
Vegas has this game with the biggest spread of the week. It started out as a -13 for the Rams. It has since moved to -12.5 for the Rams.
The Rams are also 5-1 against the Cardinals over the past 3 seasons. This should be an easy win for the Rams, who need a win to stay in the NFC West divisional race.
Trap
Falcons vs Bears
Currently, Vegas has this game at a 2.5-point favorite for the road Chicago Bears. It started at a 3.5-point line. The Bears have looked good and get Caleb Williams back this week.
It’s clearly a spark for that team. They have won with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent. Williams comes back and should be his normal self. There is always a risk of the injury still holding him back, and he isn’t his normal self
On the other side, the Falcons have looked good since Michael Penix has come back. They have scored 35, 24, and 23 points in his starts. There are questions about his availability for this game after suffering a rib injury late in the Week 5 game.
With 2 different quarterbacks playing, it could be a spark for both teams. Or maybe just one. We just don’t know which one, so I’m staying away
Looking for MORE fantasy football insight? Check out our ARTICLES page
Think Like a GM
Start managing your team on Dynatyze, where our data & tools lead to championships. Sign up for an account today and dominate your league.