I write my Start/Sit article by selecting someone outside the consensus top-12 at each position and explaining why I believe they can outperform expectations. Conversely, each week I pick a player inside the consensus top-12 and explain why I expect them to underperform. Let’s dive in.
Quarterbacks
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Start: Jameis Winston (NYG) vs. NO
Since taking over quarterbacking duties after Jaxson Dart went down with an ACL injury, Jameis Winston has had a turbulent season so far. He struggled in his first two games, but to be fair, he came off the bench against the Rams, and the Titans game was played in a monsoon. Historically, Winston has generally been more fantasy-friendly whenever manning the helm of an offense.
He was featured in Week 5’s Start/Sit article and crushed it for anyone who followed the call, going 33 for 54, 326 passing yards, and 3 passing touchdowns, plus 27 rushing yards. This totaled over 30 fantasy points for the week.
In Week 5, Winston is the consensus QB17, but I’m rolling it back again because I think he’s set up to beat expectations. The game is expected to be close, with the Saints favored to win; the team implied total is 23.5, and the Giants' is 22.0. Winston’s current pass-attempts prop is set at 31.5, so even though the Giants are generally run-heavy, Vegas odds and the game script still project solid passing volume. Since 2024, whenever Winston has thrown for over 30 attempts, he’s finished as a top-12 option.
Winston has a solid supporting cast in Isaiah Likely (TE) and Malik Nabers (WR), and the Saints defense allows opposing quarterbacks a 70% passing completion rate, which bodes well for the gunslinger. This is especially good news, as the Saints defense has struggled to create turnovers via interceptions (tied for 28th). With the Saints expected to bounce back, I expect Winston to have to air it out to keep up, and no real weather concerns are projected in this matchup. Winston should be a quality streaming option if you’re dealing with injuries, bye weeks, or general lack of faith in your current options.
Sit: Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. CAR
The Eagles’ offense has collapsed so far this year. They’ve been riddled with injuries, notably star running back Saquon Barkley and wide receiver DeVonta Smith , who are dealing with hamstring injuries. Smith is now questionable to play this week. Tight end Dallas Goedert just returned after battling soft-tissue issues. Then offensive line veteran Lane Johnson retired midseason. All of this, and Jalen Hurts has struggled mightily to pass the ball effectively.
Jalen Hurts is the consensus QB9 this week, and while the Panthers aren’t a stout defense, I’m not confident this offense is in the right spot to bounce back with everything going on right now. If both Barkley and Smith are out again, this offense should look ugly once again. Hurts has struggled without them, even in games where he’s being asked to pass a lot. He had 40 pass attempts last week and finished with only 13 fantasy points. While he has a decent rushing floor, much of his fantasy rushing production comes from the Tush Push play. If the offense keeps struggling, it's less likely to call that play, which significantly limits his ceiling.
Vegas agrees, as the Eagles have a team implied total of 19.5 (21st), while the Panthers have 21.0 (18th). Jalen Hurts’ passing-touchdown player prop is 1.5 and favors the under at -245. The Eagles' offensive line allows the third-worst pressure rate (45.6%) and the third-worst run-stuffed rate (23.5%). Unless something drastic changes, banking on Hurts as a top-10 quarterback, let alone top-12, feels too bullish for me this week.
Tight Ends
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Start: Pat Freiermuth (PIT) vs. TB
Generally, tight ends like Freiermuth, who typically fall in the TE2 range, need a touchdown to sneak into the top 12. Touchdowns are a volatile stat, so chasing them isn’t a sound process. While Freiermuth has been fortunate in the touchdown department, with four already this season, there are other reasons to be more optimistic about him in this week’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Bucs have allowed 15.7 PPR points per game to tight ends, ranking 11th in the league. While Freiermuth splits snaps with fellow tight end Darnell Washington , he’s earned more targets so far this season. While averaging 5.2 targets per game isn't much to boast about, he ranks top-five in target premium (27.2%) at the position, meaning he’s outproducing other receiving options on a per-target basis. He’s not just catching cheap dump-offs. His quarterback, Aaron Rodgers , has an affinity for veterans he can trust. Freiermuth has proven that with his quarterback rating when targeted (126.0) and his true catch rate of 93.3%.
With winds projected above 20mph, we could see less deep passing and more short-to-intermediate routes, where Freiermuth operates, as shown by his 8.2 average depth of target. Steelers rookie Swiss Army Knife wide receiver, Germie Bernard , was a popular waiver-wire name this week, but he’s still a wild card. Rodgers doesn’t typically feature rookies until they prove themselves.
He’ll likely still need a touchdown to hit the top-12 this week, but given how barren this year has been for tight end performances, you could make worse bets. Muth is a fine play if you want to avoid a dud while still getting moderate tight-end upside this week.
Sit: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs. LV
The matchup is nice, admittedly, but I’m concerned about the wishy-washy volume he’s seen over five weeks. Even with the coach-speak after last week’s shootout with the Rams about getting Kincaid the ball more, this offense spreads the ball too much, and alpha wide receiver DJ Moore is expected back this week as well. Kincaid is ranked by consensus as a mid-TE1 this week, but that seems to ignore the volatility of his target volume. I believe better options with more consistent target volume are being ranked behind him.
After starting the season red hot, Kincaid has fallen to TE16 over the first five weeks, averaging 9.9 PPR points per game. Much of his problem stems from his career story: his snap share is too low (67%), even though his efficiency suggests he could be lethal with more. He’s also commanding just over 16% of his team's targets, which makes him more of a TE2 than a true difference-making tight end with a target share over 20%.
Vegas has Kincaid’s player prop at 4.5 receptions at 0 for even and -132 for the under. To make matters worse, Buffalo is a nearly touchdown road favorite (-5.5). When Buffalo leads, they lean on running back James Cook and the ground game while quarterback Josh Allen uses his legs (his rushing prop sits at 33.5 yards on 7.5 carries).
Unless the Raiders force Buffalo into an unlikely shootout or negative game script, the market expects a standard, efficient 28 to 32 attempts rather than a high-volume throwing day. Kincaid has upside because of his efficiency, but in my opinion, he’s ranked inappropriately for his volatility.
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