I write my Start/Sit article by selecting someone outside the consensus top-12 at each position and explaining why I believe they can outperform expectations. Conversely, each week I pick a player inside the consensus top-12 and explain why I expect them to underperform. Let’s dive in.
Wide Receivers
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Start: Matthew Golden (GB) vs. DAL
The Dallas Cowboys are a sieve on defense, and Golden is out targeting teammate Christian Watson , so can someone explain why he’s not a top-12 option this week? Currently ranked as the consensus WR15, Matthew Golden averages 15.6 PPR points per game and commands a 24.3% target share.
While Watson has been taking advantage of the deep ball, leading to big numbers and several touchdowns, Golden is also getting more red-zone targets (29%). The Dallas defense is so bad that you should always consider starting your fantasy players against it. Against wide receivers, the Dallas defense ranks 12th in PPR fantasy points allowed per game (35.2). Dallas’s only advantage is its potent offense.
With both Green Bay and Dallas having weak defenses, Vegas has this projected to be a shootout. The Packers have a 27.25 team implied total, and the Cowboys are projected at 25.75. Both Watson and Golden should eat again this week. Fire them up with confidence.
Sit: Garrett Wilson (NYJ) vs. NE
This week offers plenty of great matchups for wide receivers ranked inside the top 12, but Wilson may have the toughest. Patriots stud defensive back Christian Gonzalez says he’s ready to go, so Wilson should have his work cut out for him.
On paper, the Patriots are a middle-of-the-pack defense in PPR fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers (31.4); however, that’s with Gonzalez already missing two games due to a shoulder injury. The Patriots have repeatedly used Gonzalez in full-time shadow coverage against opposing offenses’ WR1s. This could significantly cap Wilson’s ceiling this week.
Right now, Wilson is the consensus WR12; however, several options ranked behind him have matchups and upside I like more, including Matthew Golden, Davante Adams , and George Pickens . All have a similar floor, but I believe their upside is much better given the matchups. Vegas projects the Jets as the second-weakest team implied total this week at 18.25 and favors the under on both his player props: receptions (6.5) and receiving yards (72.5).
Running Backs
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Start: Emanuel Wilson (SEA) vs. DEN
Thursday Night Football features an interesting matchup between Seattle and Denver. Denver’s offense looks lost, as Broncos quarterback Bo Nix can’t seem to push the ball downfield. Seattle is one of the league's few elite defenses right now, so that should help them stay in good field position in a game where they are favored to win.
Wilson has now had three games with 20+ rush attempts, so his volume should be back since George Holani can’t get anything done and Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price are both out. The Broncos rank seventh in PPR fantasy points allowed per game to running backs (26.8) and allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game to running backs (111.0).
While Seattle’s elite wide receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba , will get his, Seattle’s offense tends to be more run-heavy, as shown by its -5.7 Pass Rate Over Expected.
With Seattle favored and an implied total of 21.5, Emanuel Wilson is a play outside the top-12 who could easily sneak in with some touchdown luck. His player prop favors the over for 80.5 rushing + receiving yards (-116), so the floor should set him up nicely.
Sit: Jaylen Warren (PIT) vs. TB
Warren has been on fire for fantasy the past few weeks. Running back teammate Rico Dowdle has been out with an injury, and Warren has taken full advantage, carrying a phenomenal workload. With Dowdle returning, his workload should take a hit, which caps his upside going forward.
Worse still, Pittsburgh faces a tough Tampa Bay run defense that ranks top five in preventing opposing running backs from scoring PPR fantasy points (17.0/game). While Mike McCarthy has said Warren should remain the bell cow, Dowdle will still spell him for about 10 touches and can poach touchdowns, too.
Vegas agrees that he may not be a true bell cow, with the under favored for his player props: 14.5 rush attempts (-120) and 3.5 receptions (-136). Consensus rankings have Warren as the RB9 for the week, and I believe that’s a little too optimistic given the matchup. Especially when guys like Rhamondre Stevenson and Chuba Hubbard are ranked behind him in more favorable matchups.
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