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The Best and Worst Pick In The First 12 Rounds of Your Draft
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The Best and Worst Pick In The First 12 Rounds of Your Draft
Who should you be targeting in each round of your fantasy draft this year? Who should you be avoiding in those rounds?
Round 1
Early
Target: Ja’Marr Chase
If you can’t get Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs, you should be aiming to get Ja’Marr Chase. When he’s got Joe Burrow throwing him the ball, there’s no better receiver in football.
Avoid: Christian McCaffrey
If he plays 17 games, he might finish as RB1. But the likelihood of that happening is pretty slim. Injured nearly every other year, and coming off over 425 touches is a recipe for disaster.
Late
Target: Justin Jefferson
Coming off a season with J.J. McCarthy as his QB and a WR32 finish, Jefferson is primed to return to his form from 2024 and before. Kyler Murray has supported WR1s in the past with DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown.
Avoid: James Cook
While Cook can be a solid running back for the Buffalo Bills, his fantasy upside is limited due to his low touchdown upside. Josh Allen has consistently been a QB1 in fantasy due to his rushing upside. Cook will have a high yardage total, but the touchdown upside of other backs leaves me wanting more in the first round.
Round 2
Early
Target: Omarion Hampton
After week 1 of the 2025 season when Omarion Hampton saw 65% or more of the snaps and received 10 or more touches, he scored 24.1 fantasy points. With Mike McDaniel in the building calling plays, I expect to see Hampton finish as a top 5 RB in fantasy this season.
Avoid: DeVon Achane
With a one dimensional offense in Miami this season, Achane is likely to see defenses stack the box all season long. He may be able to work his way around it to start the season, but during games last season when facing a stacked box, he scored lower than average in 5 out of 6 games. He’ll be serviceable, but I wouldn’t take him at the turn where he’s currently being drafted.
Late
Target: A.J. Brown
With a better passer in New England, there’s a chance for us to see A.J. Brown set a career high in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He’s entering his year 29 season, and in a better situation, Brown can finish as a top 6 WR this season.
Avoid: Trey McBride
Coming off a season with the third highest target total in the entire league, Trey McBride is primed for regression. He’s a talented tight end, but there are options later in the draft that will produce similar totals.
Round 3
Early
Target: Josh Allen
Usually you’re having to pay Round 2 prices for a top end QB. Allen has finished as QB1 in four of the last six seasons. And when he hasn’t been QB1, he’s been QB2. Allen is one of the surest bets in fantasy year in and year out, and for a round three price tag after you’ve gotten an anchor at RB or WR, Allen is a safe enough bet at QB in 2026.
Avoid: Malik Nabers
The injury risk when it comes to Malik Nabers is what lands him in avoid territory. He’s unlikely to return before week 3, and that’s if things go his way. Nabers will be good for fantasy this season if he can run. His price may jump as we approach the season depending on how well he’s running in training camp. But at this point, I’ll pass.
Late
Target: Javonte Williams
RB’s are expensive this year, and in Dallas, nothing’s really changed, and last season Javonte finished as the RB12. He should produce about the same totals this season as he did in 2025. With an average of 15 points per game and a ceiling in the mid 20’s, Javonte can be a steady producer in your RB spot in 2026.
Avoid: Reaching
The guys in this zone are good. Tetairoa McMillan, Devonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, all of these guys are great options. Don’t overthink your pick and reach for a guy who you can get in the next round.
Round 4
Early
Target: Garrett Wilson
Garrett Wilson was playing great football last season before he got hurt with worse quarterback play than he should have this season. I expect the Jets to take a jump this season, and depending on the size of that jump, you could see Wilson end up as a top 12 WR this season.
Avoid: Travis Etienne Jr.
With Kamara still in the building, I don’t know that Etienne is going to get as many touches as we might be projecting. If Kamara is traded or released, Etienne jumps. At this point I’m probably drafting two running backs in the first 3 rounds, and trying to get another WR here.
Late
Target: Jaylen Waddle
In the Sean Payton system, the WR1 gets fed. We saw Michael Thomas get 185 targets in 2019. Waddle is entering his prime, and could see similar target totals. Waddle has potential to finish as a top 12 WR in fantasy in 2026. He’s a sleeper this season. Take him if you can.
Avoid: Luther Burden
Burden’s advanced metrics look great, but they’ve also shot Burden up draft boards. He can be a good wide receiver, but he’s being drafted before guys who are more dependable. Take one of them.
Round 5
Early
Target: Quinshon Judkins
Second year running backs are usually a good bet, and even though the Browns are likely to trail in most of their games this season, Judkins is the starter, and the one the Browns are expecting to get the majority of carries in 2026.
Avoid: Treyveon Henderson
Yes, I know what I just said about second year running backs, but Henderson isn’t the starter. He’s the auxiliary back for the Patriots, and unless he takes a step in his pass blocking, or Rhamondre Stevenson regresses, I don’t expect Henderson to see more than 40% of the backfield work in New England.
Late
Target: Quarterback
Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels are both going late in the 5th round of drafts, and if you’ve already got your starting wide receivers and running backs, Burrow and Daniels are both great options to shore up your quarterback. And with a fifth round price tag, they’re going later than they would in other years.
Avoid: DJ Moore
DJ Moore has been a good wide receiver during his career, and that’s about it. He’s never been great, and the way that receivers are being used in Buffalo, I don’t expect to see 1,000 yards from Moore. If you need a receiver, I’d be happier with the options at the start of the 6th round.
Round 6
Early
Target: Christian Watson
Watson should be able to stay healthy all season, and if that’s the case, his boom potential is off the charts. With a cleared out receiver room, his floor should be relatively high. Even if he is the second option behind Tucker Kraft, Watson should see 5-7 targets per game at a minimum. Throughout his career in games where Watson has seen 5 targets or more, he’s averaged almost 14 points per game.
Avoid: Rome Odunze
With Luther Burden and Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze might be the third option in this Bears offense. Vegas expects all 3 to get around 800 yards, and I’m guessing as we approach the season, those totals will change based on what we see in training camp. Keep an eye on Odunze.
Late
Target: Brian Thomas Jr.
Last season Thomas had a down year. Call it a sophomore slump if you want, but he dealt with injuries all year. During OTAs Thomas and his quarterback Trevor Lawrence hit it off. Thomas looked fast, and was catching passes like he was in his rookie year again. I expect to see Thomas return to his rookie form in 2026.
Avoid: Jaylen Warren
With the addition of Rico Dowdle this offseason, Jaylen Warren’s ceiling is a pass catching back in Pittsburgh. The issue with Warren being the passing back is that the Steelers also brought in Michael Pittman Jr, and drafted rookie Germie Bernard. Warren is going to have better competition for passes, and is looking to lose rushing work to Dowdle.
Round 7
Early
Target: Justin Herbert
Every year it seems like we’re talking about how much potential Herbert has, and how this thing or that thing has caused the Chargers problems. Well, it seems like all the stars have aligned for Herbert and the Chargers. His offensive line is healthy and the coaching staff has added Mike McDaniel as Offensive Coordinator. Herbert could be a top 5 QB this year.
Avoid: Rhamondre Stevenson
Rhamondre Stevenson has had fumbling issues throughout his career. Even when Stevenson fumbles, the Patriots don’t seem to mind. They continue to give him carries regardless of whether he keeps the ball or loses it. Will they take his carries away if he continues to put the ball on the ground this year? Will Henderson take over?
Late
Target: Courtland Sutton
Aging wide receivers are a safe bet to start the season. Bo Nix has a rapport with Sutton, and with the addition of Waddle, Sutton will likely take a step back in his age 31 season. We’ve seen receivers like Davante Adams and Mike Evans average around 15 points in their age 31 season, and while Sutton isn’t on the same level as those two, he’s proven that he can be a good wide receiver. In round 7, he’s a serviceable substitute for bye weeks, or a good matchup based flex.
Avoid: R.J. Harvey
Harvey had foot surgery this offseason, and the Broncos aren’t saying much about it. They also have J.K. Dobbins who will take carries away, and they drafted Jonah Coleman out of the University of Washington. Sean Payton has historically split backfields between multiple rushers. In New Orleans we saw Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, and Reggie Bush split carries, and while those running backs played great football, I don’t see Payton having as much faith in these backs.
Round 8
Early
Target: Parker Washington
Jacksonville is set to throw the ball all over the field this season. All offseason we’ve heard that Brian Thomas and Parker Washington play the same role at wide receiver. While that may be true, we saw Trevor Lawrence get him the ball last season. I expect Thomas and Washington to emerge as the two wide receivers in Jacksonville. You’re getting a guy like Rome Odunze or Luther Burden in Round 8.
Avoid: Michael Wilson
Another situation where there are two receivers fighting for the WR1 spot on their team, Wilson’s situation is quite different than Washington’s. Wilson is on a team that seems to be tanking for a good draft pick in 2027, and after drafting rookie Jeremiyah Love, they could look to run the ball more this season. Wilson is looking at decreased targets on a team that doesn’t want to compete, in the toughest division in football.
Late
Target: Michael Pittman
With Rodgers coming back for one final season we know the Steelers are going all in. They brought in Pittman who’s great in short yardage, and Rodgers has been favoring those targets more as he’s gotten older. Pittman should see a lot of targets over the middle in short yardage this should equate to high touchdown upside and a huge upside in PPR formats.
Avoid: Jakobi Meyers
Meyers might start the season with a few good weeks, but I would expect this to diminish rather quickly. Jacksonville is likely to try integrating Travis Hunter into the offense and play around with their options with Brian Thomas and Parker Washington. Meyers could see success in the slot if there are injuries in the secondary.
Round 9
Early
Target: Quentin Johnston
Johnston’s usage in one wide receiver sets was higher than Ladd McConkey’s. OC Mike McDaniel has had conversations with Johnston about how he’s going to break defenses this season. I expect Johnston to approach 1,000 yards this season, and possibly top it.
Avoid: Ricky Pearsall
Pearsall has been mediocre in his two seasons with the San Francisco 49ers, and with the addition of Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, and rookie De’Zhaun Stribling and retained pass catchers George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey, I don’t see a path to success for Pearsall unless the 49ers have worse injury luck than last year.
Late
Target: Wan’Dale Robinson
Last season Wan’Dale saw 140 targets with Brian Daboll. As the Titans and Cam Ward look to install Carnell Tate, I expect them to lean into Wan’Dale Robinson, and he should see quite a few targets throughout the season.
Avoid: Jayden Reed
While the Packers have cleared out their receiver room, Reed is still likely to be the 4th or 5th option in Green Bay. Behind Tucker Kraft, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and potentially Josh Jacobs, Reed’s got an uphill path to success this season.
Round 10
Early
Target: Rachaad White
White enters the Commanders backfield as likely their best option. With Jacory Croskey-Merritt failing to meet expectations last season, he may be given a short leash, but White should be their pass catching back, and may take over as their first and second down back if JCM can’t figure out his path to success.
Avoid: Jake Ferguson
Target competition for Ferguson is going to be fierce in Dallas with CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and deep sleeper, and highly productive third string receiver Ryan Flournoy. I expect Ferguson to be a TE2, with upside if the Cowboys move on from a wide receiver before the deadline.
Late
Target: Jonathan Brooks
Brooks was drafted out of Texas entering the 2024 season. Before starting the 2024 season, he suffered an ACL tear, and another ACL tear ending his season in 2025, Brooks doesn’t have any mileage on his legs. He could take Chuba Hubbard’s job towards the end of the year. We haven’t seen what he can do at the NFL level, but the draft capital and potential could lead to a huge breakout candidate in 2026.
Avoid: Xavier Worthy
Xavier Worthy posted a video this offseason of himself running around some cones in the grass, and it was one of the least impressive things any of us have seen since Kenny Golladay at Giants practice. Avoid this one.
Round 11
Early
Target: Kyler Murray
Kyler could finish as a top 12 QB this season. The Vikings offensive situation is far better than Arizona, and with KOC as his head coach, Murray should improve. Kyler’s rushing upside alongside Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the Vikings should see success this season.
Avoid: KC Concepcion
The Browns drafted two receivers to add to Harold Fannin and Jerry Jeudy, and with the questions at QB, this situation is very uncertain entering the 2026 season.
Late
Target: Khalil Shakir
Shakir has had success in Buffalo. Josh Allen favors him when he’s been on the field, and while he isn’t the most talented receiver, having Josh Allen as your QB, and with DJ Moore seeing top defenders when they’re on the field, Shakir will see higher quality targets without much decrease in target share.
Avoid: Oronde Gadsden
Gadsden is a great pass catching tight end, but the addition of David Njoku who’s a better blocker, will eat into Gadsden’s snap share and likely his target share. Gadsden is good, but with Njoku in the way, I am avoiding Gadsden.
Round 12
Early
Target: Jalen Coker
“Coke Heads” have been waiting for this one. Jalen Coker was undrafted out of Holy Cross, and in games where Coker sees 5 or more targets he averages 13.1 fantasy points per game. In round 12, his upside is huge.
Avoid: Tyler Allgeier
Allgeier signed with the Cardinals and his stock skyrocketed. Then the Cardinals drafted Jeremiyah Love. Now he’s competing with James Conner for Love’s scraps. If he gets traded during the season, he could see success, but not while he’s still in Arizona.
Late
Target: Stefon Diggs
Diggs had over 1,000 yards last season with the Patriots. He’s younger than Mike Evans, and less injury prone. If Diggs signs with the Chiefs or the Ravens, he will shoot up draft boards.
Avoid: Jauan Jennings
Jennings will be the fourth or fifth option for the Vikings, and unless the Vikings spend most of their time in 11 personnel which seems to be getting phased out, Jennings is likely not going to see the field as much as he has in previous seasons.
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