We’re back with part two of my series looking into how projected team totals can help us make decisions on Draft Day.
This time, we’re looking at which players are undervalued by the fantasy football market through the lens of the top five projected offenses.
Through the excellent tools on Dynatyze, I found that there is an incredibly strong relationship between bottom five projected offenses and fantasy football busts in every skill position. You can find that find that article here .
Read it before your draft to save the inevitable heartache of drafting players from the Jets and the Browns.
Spoiler alert: that relationship between fantasy busts on bottom five offenses exists with fantasy values on top five projected offenses.
First, let’s define some terms. A projected team total is a rough estimate of how many points an offense is expected to score based on a combination of statistical projections and predictive models often used by sportsbooks.
Now let’s find some values.
The top 5 projected offenses this season are:
Rams 26.6 PPG
Bills 26.1 PPG
Lions 26.1 PPG
Bengals 26 PPG
Ravens 25.9 PPG Running Backs: Headline
Of every RB since 1999 on a top five projected offense with a minimum of 230 carries, they finish in the top 12 RBs a huge 84% of the time - they finish top 5 48% of the time.
Hello, Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP RB1), James Cook (ADP RB5), Kyren Williams (ADP RB15), Chase Brown (ADP RB10) and Derrick Henry (ADP RB11).
Now, this is a pretty elite group of running backs.
Of course Jahmyr Gibbs is a great bet to finish top 5, I hear you say.
Well, we’re getting to the values now.
What we can glean from this data is that Kyren Williams, Chase Brown and Derrick Henry represent good value based on their ADP.
All these RBs exceeded the 230+ carry mark and are good bets to do it again this season - I’ll believe the yearly Kyren Williams losing touches story when I see it.
Values: Well, you can’t go wrong with any of these guys. Kyren Williams is currently the only one being drafted outside the top 12.
Wide Receivers: Headline
Of every wide receiver from 2009 on a top 5 projected offense with a minimum of 100 targets, they finish as a top 12 WR 61% of the time - they finish top 5 25% of the time.
If you increase the threshold to 130 targets, wide receivers on top 5 projected offenses finish as top 5 WRs 50% of the time.
Puka Nacua (ADP WR2), Davante Adams (ADP WR25), DJ Moore (ADP WR27), Ja’Marr Chase (ADP WR1), Tee Higgins (ADP WR17), Zay Flowers (ADP WR15), Amon Ra St Brown (ADP WR4) and Jameson Williams (ADP WR26) are on the docket.
As with the running backs, there’s a lot of ‘yeah, obviously’ here - but the data reveals some values. Just stick with me.
Last season:
Ja’Marr Chase - 185 targets
Amon Ra St Brown - 172 targets
Puka Nacua - 166 targets
Zay Flowers - 118 targets
Davante Adams - 114 targets
Jameson Williams - 102 targets
Tee Higgins - 98 targets
DJ Moore - 85 targets
Ja’Marr Chase, Amon Ra St Brown and Puka Nacua are safe bets to hit over 130+ targets. Zay Flowers will likely be comfortably above 100+ targets.
As far as I’m concerned, the main story here is DJ Moore - a player I had basically taken off my draft board earlier in the off-season due to the several markers of regression (targets, red zone targets, FPTs, YPRR, TPRR all decreased in 2025).
Last year was the first time since his rookie season that Moore didn’t reach 100 targets. Although the Bills haven’t had any pass catcher with more than 25% target share since Stefon Diggs left, 100 targets seems completely reasonable for Moore in his first year in Buffalo. If he hits that mark, he has a huge chance to rank top 12. He’s currently going as the WR27.
The second story here is Tee Higgins.
Tee Higgins has only missed 100 targets twice in his career - last season and 2023. The main concern with Higgins is always injuries. He has missed 12 games over the last three seasons. If he plays a full season, he will easily surpass 100 targets on one of the most pass heavy offenses.
Jameson Williams and Davante Adams are also worth mentioning.
Jameson Williams hit 100+ targets for the first time in his career in 2025. Crucially, Sam LaPorta missed 8 games. Williams feels the riskiest bet to reach 100 targets again.
Last year, Davante Adams recorded his 3rd fewest receiving yards (789) and third fewest total targets (114) in his career. Adams ranked 3rd in total red zone targets. You’ve got to suspect the targets will be there once again.
Values: DJ Moore, Tee Higgins and Davante Adams.
Tight Ends: Headline
Of every tight end from 2009 on top 5 projected offense with 55+ targets, they finish as a top 12 TE 67% of the time - the finish top 5 36% of the time.
Tight ends are a little trickier to try and get to grips here. The first two tight ends off the boards - Brock Bowers and Trey McBride - are on bottom five projected offenses.
The tight ends on the top five implied offenese aren’t exactly the most desirable bunch.
Dalton Kincaid (ADP TE12), Terrance Ferguson (ADP TE26), Colby Parkinson (ADP TE32), Mark Andrews (ADP TE11), Mike Gesicki (ADP TE 30) and Sam LaPorta (ADP TE6) are the names to consider here.
Of the aforementioned tight ends, only Mark Andrews hit 55+ receptions last season - he finished as the TE16.
Mark Andrews stands out. Andrews has passed 55+ targets every season since his rookie year - and averages 79 targets a year with Lamar Jackson playing at least 15 games.
If Kincaid is healthy, he is a good bet. He has missed 10 games through 3 seasons, though he has only missed 55+ targets once in his career.
I don’t mind Sam LaPorta, but there is little room for error when it comes to returning value on his ADP.
Values: Dalton Kincaid (if you’re brave) and Mark Andrews
Quarterbacks: Headline
Of every quarterback from 1999 on a top 5 projected offense with 350+ pass attempts, they finish as a top 12 QB 92% of the time - they finish top 5 61% of the time.
Well, the relationship between top five projected offenses and quarterback fantasy production is the strongest of all fantasy relevant positions.
Matthew Stafford (ADP QB14), Josh Allen (ADP QB1), Joe Burrow (ADP QB5), Jared Goff (ADP QB16) and Lamar Jackson (ADP QB2) are the names to look at here.
Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow both missed this mark last season due to injuries - in every season they have played a minimum 16 games, they have both exceeded that mark.
The standout values relative to ADP are Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff.
Jared Goff stands out as the QB to target late in drafts. The Lions’ favorable strength of schedule, poor defense and litany of weapons give him a chance to drastically outperform his ADP.
Values: Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff
Final Word
Ultimately, you’re going to be the person who has to live with your fantasy team over the course of 17 Sundays. Drafting players from good offenses is going to give you the best shot at having fun - which is what this game is all about.
Well, that and winning.