We’re back with part two of my series looking into how projected team totals can help us make decisions on Draft Day.
This time, we’re looking at which players are undervalued by the fantasy football market through the lens of the top five projected offenses.
Through the excellent tools on Dynatyze, I found that there is an incredibly strong relationship between bottom five projected offenses and fantasy football busts in every skill position. You can find that find that article here .
Read it before your draft to save the inevitable heartache of drafting players from the Jets and the Browns.
Spoiler alert: that relationship between fantasy busts on bottom five offenses exists with fantasy values on top five projected offenses.
First, let’s define some terms. A projected team total is a rough estimate of how many points an offense is expected to score based on a combination of statistical projections and predictive models often used by sportsbooks.
Now let’s find some values.
The top 5 projected offenses this season are:
Rams 26.6 PPG
Bills 26.1 PPG
Lions 26.1 PPG
Bengals 26 PPG
Ravens 25.9 PPG Running Backs: Headline
Of every RB since 1999 on a top five projected offense with a minimum of 230 carries, they finish in the top 12 RBs a huge 84% of the time - they finish top 5 48% of the time.
Hello, Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP RB1), James Cook (ADP RB5), Kyren Williams (ADP RB15), Chase Brown (ADP RB10) and Derrick Henry (ADP RB11).
Now, this is a pretty elite group of running backs.
Of course Jahmyr Gibbs is a great bet to finish top 5, I hear you say.
Well, we’re getting to the values now.
What we can glean from this data is that Kyren Williams, Chase Brown and Derrick Henry represent good value based on their ADP.