Quarterbacks
Start: Baker Mayfield (TB) vs. CLE
Baker Mayfield fell in both dynasty and redraft rankings going into this season because he fell victim to a classic trap. Double punishment. This is when a player gets hurt, so we ding his valuation, and then he continues to try to play through it and struggles to perform. Because of this, we ding him again, instead of attributing it to the injury, which we already dinged him for in the first place.
Week 1 is sure to give some managers confirmation bias, as he struggled to put up numbers against the Bengals defense, who came into the season ranked as a near-bottom-of-the-league unit. He had three fumbles and zero passing touchdowns, which decimated his fantasy score. However, he has the talent and the track record to ball out, as he’s been a top-12 quarterback in three out of the last three years.
This week, Baker gets a nice bounce-back opportunity going against the Cleveland Browns, who just got lit up by Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Vegas has the Bucs projected for the eighth-highest team implied total of 25 points this week.
The Browns defense had one of the worst performances in Week 1, as their secondary completely broke down. They produced a dreadful 0.731 dropback EPA/play, which was the worst of all teams in Week 1. This translated to a poor success rate against the pass for them, as they allowed Trevor Lawrence to create a successful play 68% of each dropback.
Don’t overthink this one; Baker is coming into this one angry and ready to dominate. Fire him up with confidence against this pathetic Browns defensive unit.
Sit: Joe Burrow (CIN) vs. HOU
Joe Burrow is a stud when he’s healthy. Unfortunately, the recent news suggests he’s not 100%. Ian Rappaport reported that Burrow is dealing with a back injury, and video came out from practice where Burrow looked to be struggling with it. Some people are linking it to the big hit he took when running out of bounds last week.
His number one wide receiver, Ja’Marr Chase, was quiet in Week 1 against a favorable matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who rank near the bottom of the league as a defensive unit coming into the season. This may be related to the knee hyperextension he suffered in the preseason. If this is the case, and he continues to be limited at all, that puts a major dent in the ceiling for Burrow in Week 2. Also noteworthy, Burrow has failed to play a full season in two of the past three seasons.
While the injury concerns are not at DEFCON 5 yet, the bigger concern is the defensive talent he’s going to face. The Texans are still a top-five unit, even if Josh Allen just put up points against them last week. The Texans have home-field advantage, and they will be looking to bounce back with vengeance. Burrow will have to step up his play from last week if he’s to replicate Josh Allen’s Week 1 numbers against this unit.
Last week, Burrow had a good game, but struggled in some areas. His big-time throw rate (BTT%) was nearly identical to his turnover-worthy play rate (TWP%). He wasn’t pushing the ball downfield like we’ve become accustomed to seeing. His 7.9 average depth of target (aDOT) further demonstrates his struggle to create big plays, as this is on the lower side of average for NFL quarterbacks. That won’t cut it against better defenses for fantasy production.
Vegas has the Bengals’ implied team total set at 22 points (20th), and the Texans are favored in this matchup. Burrow offers little to nothing on the ground for fantasy, so if he’s limited, he is likely to struggle to produce top-12 numbers for fantasy.
Tight Ends
Start: Dalton Schultz (HOU) vs. CIN
That’s right, I’m going back to the well on this one. Last week, the process was correct. Schultz earned eight targets, and that was with a fully healthy Nico Collins as the alpha wide receiver.
Collins is currently dealing with a hamstring issue that has required imaging tests, which is a significant development. If Nico misses time, Schultz stands to benefit massively. Whenever a team loses its alpha receiving option, the offense typically shrinks, and we see those targets get funneled more to the tight ends.
Vegas has the Texans as the favorite to win, and the game is projected to have a total of 46.5 points scored between both teams. The Texans will rely on their defense to keep the Bengals in check for this game. However, if they struggle at all to stop Joe Burrow and company, expect Schultz to near double-digit targets again - even if Nico ends up playing in this one. This puts him in a great spot to sneak inside the top-12 at the position.
Sit: Juwan Johnson (NO) vs. BAL
If you started Johnson last week, you were waiting until late in the game for him to pan out for your fantasy lineups. He was also the number three target earner on the team last week. Neither of which is ideal when you want to have a dependable starter in your tight end slot each week.
This week, he’s projected inside the top-12 at the position, as the Saints face Baltimore away as underdogs according to Vegas. Even with the Saints likely having to pass more in this game, expect wide receivers Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele to be the main beneficiaries as the primary target earners.
In Week 1, fellow tight end Noah Fant, who ran fewer routes (26) than Johnston (53), actually had a higher target share (15.4%) than Johnson did (13.5%). This was a game where quarterback Tyler Shough threw 56 times. When your quarterback throws that many times, and you can’t command targets at a high enough rate, you become a very volatile fantasy option. On top of that, the Ravens were better against the pass than the Lions were last week.
The Baltimore Ravens ranked third in drop-back EPA (-0.409) and were top five in drop-back success rate (40%). This should be a much tougher matchup for Shough, so temper expectations for the late-game heroics Johnston provided your fantasy squad last week. I’d be looking for a more reliable option if there’s one available.
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