I write my Start/Sit article by selecting someone outside the consensus top-12 at each position and explaining why I believe they can outperform expectations. Conversely, I also pick a player inside the consensus top-12 and explain why I expect them to underperform. Let’s dive in.
Wide Receivers
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Start: Germie Bernard (PIT) vs. NO
Bernard is the new fantasy darling, and the hype is well-deserved. He's had a chance lately, and he’s been thriving. Over the last two games, with veteran wide receiver Michael Pittman out, Bernard has had over a 90% snap share, translating to 9+ targets, 6+ receptions, and 80+ yards per game. If Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers keeps getting pressured and has to air it out, expect Bernard to keep thriving in a dome environment where the weather won’t be a factor.
This week, he’s ranked WR23 by consensus, but he's shown WR1 upside if the passing volume hits, and the volume is projected to be there, with Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers favored to throw 34.5 pass attempts (over 117). Over the last two weeks, Bernard has had a 92.8% snap share, a ~100% route share, and a 28.4% target share with 7 high-value, inside-the-red-zone touches. With veteran wide receiver Michael Pittman out, Bernard is poised to take on another heavy workload.
Vegas has Bernard’s 54.5 receiving-yards player prop favored for the over this week (-115), and his receptions prop is set at 5.5, which provides a solid floor if he finds himself fortunate in the red zone again, where Rodgers clearly trusts him. The Steelers are 3.5-point favorites in a 44.5-point game total. The Steelers are +5.4 pass-rate over expected for the season, so even in a neutral game script, the pass game shouldn’t disappear.