Week 6 review
Another rough week. Only went 1-2 this week. Our Lock was the only hit. Despite having difficulties with divisional games in Week 5, I picked two more this past week, and they both lost. I have to remember that it’s a rule for a reason.
Sometimes the Vegas odds are just off. I was on a podcast on Sunday morning, and we discussed both of those games and how the lines seemed odd.
We will continue to strive to provide the best process for picks and start seeing some better results overall.
The Rules
Let’s go back to the rules. As a reminder, here are the current rules 1- No divisional games
2- Travel Kills. We want home games
3- Keep track of the Vegas odds
4- Avoid sparks (new coach, QB)
5- Pick teams coming off a bye week
Week 7 Picks
Lock
Vikings vs Colts
The Colts are on the verge of having a spark after GM Chris Ballard was fired following the Week 6 loss to the Tennessee Titans. It’s not close enough to the players to impact the way they play. I don’t think this will be the last change we see in Indy, but for now they are not a great team.
The Colts have only scored over 25 points in two games this season and now face a very tough defense in the Vikings. The Vikings are holding teams to 12.8 points per game. The most they have given up was 22 points back in Week 1.
The Vikings are the best against the run, which is the best option for offense from the Colts with Jonathan Taylor.
Vegas started this game at -5.5 to the Vikings but has since shifted to -6.5. This is probably due to running back Jordan Mason possibly returning this week.
Even at 5-0, it’s been hard to find a spot to pick the Vikings. I can’t think of a better spot with them coming off their bye week, at home with a big Vegas line.
In Consideration
Browns vs Titans
It’s a common thing among survivor pools to pick against the Titans. How can you not? They can’t stop anyone and can’t put up points.
I’m not saying they are going to lose the rest of their games. As we saw in Week 6, they can beat some teams, especially divisional opponents. I still don’t love them this week, and it’s worth considering the Cleveland Browns.
Yes, the AFC North leading Cleveland Browns. A sentence I never thought I would type. The Browns aren’t a great team. They are only averaging 17.6 points a game. Only once been over 25 points.
They are on the road this week against the Titans, who are coming off their first win, but I still don’t know if that’s enough.
The strongest point for the Browns is the defense, which is holding teams to 20.3 points per game, but that number is inflated by the 34-point blowout loss in Week 1. Over the past 3 weeks, they are holding teams to 17 points.
This will be a close game. Vegas started out giving the Titans a 1.5-point line. It's down at -1.5 to the Browns, which is essentially a coin flip.
If you don’t have better options, this is where I would go and cross my fingers. I believe the Browns pull out the win, but it might be a close one where you are sweating the whole game.
Trap
I struggled this week finding games I really believed in. We have four teams on byes and six divisional games. Three out of the four teams coming off the bye are in those divisional games.
There are two trap games I see this week.
Texans vs Giants
This is a classic case of Rule 4. The Giants will be switching to JJ McCarthy at quarterback over Jameis Winston.
Vegas started the line at -9.5 for the home Texans and has since shifted it to -10.5. It’s the biggest line of the week.
I have always been a believer in McCarthy, and I liked what I saw from him in one quarter with the Giants. He has all the makings to be an NFL quarterback. He just has to put it together on the field.
I believe John Harbaugh can help him with that. The Giants have good weapons in wide receiver Malik Nabers and tight end Isaiah Likely.
The Texans’ defense is very stout, which might be a concern for some. Their strongest part is against the run, which isn’t something the Giants do well anyway, so expect a ton of passing volume. The Texans are middle of the road in giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks.
McCarthy might just be the spark that propels the Giants to win and knock out a ton of people in your survivor pool. I don’t think we need to get desperate when there are some other options this week.
49er vs Falcons
My biggest hang-up is that the Niners are going from the West Coast to play an early East Coast game on Sunday morning. I don’t love that travel aspect. I also don’t love that the Niners are on a bye next week.
They could be looking ahead to some rest and recovery, and with an undefeated record, one loss won’t sink their season. They will lose at some point.
I like that the Niners have averaged 29.5 points per game this season. While they are dealing with injuries, they still can produce. They have been holding teams to 18.3 points per game.
The Falcons, with Michael Penix at quarterback, have averaged 31.5 points per game. That is concerning.
Vegas is giving the Falcons the customary +3.5 points as the home team. I think this is a classic trap where a team is looking ahead, and Survivor Pool players see an undefeated team and want to ride that hot hand.
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