I write my Start/Sit article by selecting someone outside the consensus top-12 at each position and explaining why I believe they can outperform expectations. Conversely, I also pick a player inside the consensus top-12 and explain why I expect them to underperform. Let’s dive in.
Wide Receivers
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Start: Michael Wilson (ARZ) vs. DAL
While I don’t believe Michael Wilson is true alpha-level wide receiver talent, he does a great job commanding targets. Commanding significant volume on a team that likely has to throw a lot to keep pace with an explosive opposing offense, with both teams’ defenses struggling to prevent scoring this year, is a good recipe for success. Wilson is currently the consensus WR17 for the week, but has a good matchup and is one of the few games where weather won’t be a concern.
Over the last three weeks, Dallas has allowed 34.2 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers (10th-most). Vegas has this game tied for the slate's highest game total (54.5), with Dallas as heavy favorites. While Cardinals tight end Trey McBride is the team’s alpha receiving option, Wilson is commanding a solid 22% target share over the last four weeks. Vegas has it at about even money for Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s 37.5-pass-attempts prop, so we can project roughly eight or more targets for Wilson given his target share. With the Dallas defense focused on McBride, Wilson gets a nice bounce-back opportunity, and his upside makes him a solid bet over other flex-worthy options.
Sit: Drake London (ATL) vs. TB
Drake London finally scored last week. He’s currently the WR10 this year and the consensus WR8 this week. This week, he faces a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the 14th-fewest passing yards, 5th-fewest passing TDs, and 11th-fewest fantasy points to WRs. The WR2 floor should be there because of his volume (29.2% target share) each week, but his ceiling is limited if he doesn’t score again.
To make matters worse, the passing game could get ugly. The forecast calls for a 70% chance of rain and thunderstorms. If so, we could see a heavy ground game from both sides. Especially since the Falcons offense already heavily favors the run, with a -6.8% pass rate versus expectations.
Vegas has the Bucs as 2.5-point favorites in the fourth-lowest game implied total on the slate. Drake London’s 78.5 receiving-yard player prop is about even money, while his 6.5-reception prop favors the under. This indicates that he’ll need a touchdown, which we know is volatile week to week, to sneak into the top-12 at the position this week. He’s a great floor play, but if you need upside, consider other options, especially with so many favorable matchups for wide receivers this week.
Running Backs
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Start: Bucky Irving (TB) vs. ATL
Bucky crushed it as my running back start last week, and I’m going back to the well this week. He’s currently the consensus RB14 this week, and he’s set up well to exceed expectations. As I mentioned, the weather should impact the passing game for both sides in this matchup, so I expect the Bucs to lean on the run as well, especially as 2.5-point favorites.
Atlanta gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs (25.9 points per game), allowing an average of 81 yards and one rushing touchdown per game to the position. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is still working his way back to 100% after a dislocated thumb in his throwing hand, and top wide receiver Emeka Egbuka may not be available as he recovers from a concussion and foot injury. The Bucs also have a -3.8 pass rate over expectation for the year, so they were never pass-happy to begin with.
Vegas favors the over on his 16.5 rush-attempts prop and his 89.5 receiving-and-rushing-yards prop. Bucky doesn’t typically see significant receiving volume, so even with a strong matchup, he’s an RB2 who needs to get into the endzone to sneak into the top 12 at the position.
Sit: Chase Brown (CIN) vs. TEN
Chase Brown hasn’t lived up to RB1 expectations so far this season. The Bengals offense has seemingly given up on the run game and leaned fully on the pass, as shown by their +7.4% pass rate over expectation this year. Chase Brown is the consensus RB12 this week, but beyond a solid matchup, I see little to support an RB1 ranking.
His usage and efficiency numbers this year leave much to be desired. He forfeited a short-yardage red zone role to 31-year-old Samaje Perine last week, and his rate of rushes over 10 yards is only 7.3%, his yards after contact per attempt is only 1.49, and his rushing yards over expectation is -49. He’s simply not creating on his own right now. In fact, he hasn’t reached 40 rushing yards since Week 3.
While the Bengals are 11-point favorites in a 46.5-point game implied total with a slight chance of rain in the forecast, Tennessee has been mediocre against running backs this year, allowing the 14th most fantasy points to the position (22.0 per game). They have been better at preventing running back damage through the air than against the run, so his ceiling may be more capped in this area of his game.
Vegas numbers aren’t helping him this week either: he’s even money on 55.5 rushing yards, and the 20.5 receiving-yards prop favors the under. The floor is flex-level production, not even a strong RB2. If he keeps struggling to score touchdowns, he’s unlikely to sneak into the top-12 at the position this week.
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