I write my Start/Sit article by selecting someone outside the consensus top-12 at each position and explaining why I believe they can outperform expectations. Conversely, I also pick a player inside the consensus top-12 and explain why I expect them to underperform. Let’s dive in.
Quarterbacks
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Start: Kirk Cousins (LV) vs. NYJ
Cousins may not be the Raiders' starting quarterback for long, as they'll likely give Mendoza more action in the back half of the season. For now, we ride with the QB4 in fantasy who’s averaging over 19 points per game.
The Jets' defense is mediocre at preventing fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. They’re allowing an average of 16.5 fantasy points per game to the position. This comes from allowing 1.6 passing touchdowns per game, giving up the ball on the ground, and averaging 0.1 interceptions per game.
Cousins may not offer Konami code attributes, but he’s getting it done through the air for fantasy. He’s thrown for two or more touchdowns in six of seven games this year, averaging over 34 pass attempts and 268 passing yards per game. Vegas betting books expect him to continue his touchdown success, as he’s favored to hit the over on his 1.5 passing touchdown player prop (-112). The Jets just allowed Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis to post one of the season's highest QBRs, finishing QB4 with two passing touchdowns and one on the ground.
The Raiders are letting Cousins air it out; he’s 10th in average depth of target, so he’s pushing the ball downfield. His EPA/play is 0.182, which ranks 11th in the league. He’s generating nearly a fifth of an expected point every single time he drops back.
The game environment is expected to be mild, with a slight chance of rain, so it shouldn’t drastically affect the game. Keep an eye on this, though, in case anything changes. Cousins is the consensus QB16, but this matchup gives him another chance to exceed expectations for his fantasy managers.
Sit: Caleb Williams (CHI) vs. SEA
Caleb is a great talent, but this week brings a brutal road matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. The consensus QB10 will need to be on his A game to overcome several factors working against him this week. Let’s dive in.
Seattle has the second-best defense at preventing fantasy points at quarterback this year (10.4 per game). They're not only great at being ball hawks (1.1 INT per game) and putting pressure on the quarterback (11th in sacks per game), but they also limit the passing game to just 158 passing yards and 1.1 passing touchdowns per game.
Vegas odds don’t paint a better picture either, with the unders favored in key player props like passing yards (227.5), passing touchdowns (1.5), completions (20.5), and interceptions (0.5). His ability to create out of structure should keep him from busting, but don’t expect a ceiling game. The weather should be mild, so it shouldn’t affect the game.
Tight Ends
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Start: Chig Okonkwo (WAS) vs. PHI
While not an amazing matchup on paper, Chig makes sense as a streaming option with upside this week. The Commanders lost Terry McLaurin for the season last week, and Chig stepped up, catching 7 of 7 targets for 69 yards. With the need for pass-catching talent, I expect Chig to be heavily involved moving forward.
The Eagles present a tough matchup on paper, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year. That said, over the last two games, Chig has averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game on a 20% target share and a 97.4% routes-run rate.
Vegas odds currently favor the over on his 30.5 receiving-yard line in a game with a 40.5-point total, with the Commanders favored. Vegas also favors Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels to hit the over on his 29.5 pass attempts. With receiving weapons limited by the McLaurin injury, Chig has a potential floor of six targets if he maintains his 20% target share. His ability after the catch could help him reach his ceiling, especially with any touchdown luck. This game has a slight chance of rain, so keep an eye on it if it develops into anything significant.
Sit: Sam LaPorta (DET) vs. MIN
LaPorta was one of my biggest dynasty buys this offseason and one of my favorite redraft values at tight end. He’s clearly not bothered by the back surgery, as he’s the current TE5 this year. This week, he gets the worst possible matchup for tight ends: the Vikings defense, the league's best at preventing opposing tight ends from scoring fantasy points (6.9 per game).
While he’s having a great season, he's also shown he can put up disappointing performances, like last week against Green Bay, when he caught one pass on two targets for 18 yards. The Vikings held solid tight end talent like Colston Loveland and Juwuan Johnson below 20 yards.
Vegas isn't projecting a bailout for the consensus TE7, either. His props are sitting at a gross 4.5 targets and 45.5 yards. Touchdown upside? Zero. The Vikings haven't let a tight end find the end zone all year. Even if he scraps together 5 catches for 46 yards, you're looking at less than 10 PPR points—which won't crack the top 12. Don't bank on volume to save him. He's at a 17.8% target share, and with Jared Goff favored to throw under 35 times, LaPorta is likely to get maybe six total targets. Volume likely won't save him.
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