Week 1 is one of the hardest weeks to survive. While we think we know what to expect from teams, we always have a few shockers.
As a reminder, there are 3 things we look for when making our selection
1- no divisional games
2- Travel Kills. We want home games
3- Keep track of the Vegas odds
Week 1 recap Our LOCK hit with the Jacksonville Jaguars beating the Cleveland Browns.
We got one of our in-contention picks right with the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Atlanta Falcons. We got our last one wrong as the Los Angeles Chargers couldn’t beat the Arizona Cardinals. Overall, 2-1 is a great mark, and we advance with our Lock. We can take some actionable insight from our lone Week 1 loss.
First, because it was Week 1, the Cardinals have had all offseason to prepare for the game. So did the Chargers, but extra time to scout and game plan makes things closer.
Second, I believe I and most people were underestimating the Arizona Cardinals. Running back Jeremiyah Love was as good as advertised. The Cardinals are a middle-of-the-pack team, not a basement dweller most think they are.
The last takeaway probably won’t help us a ton in the future outside of the next week or so. The Chargers drastically made changes in the offense with Mike McDaniels in as offensive coordinator over Greg Roman from last year. We have seen multiple times that a new OC requires some learning, and there are kinks to work out. The Chargers seemed to suffer from that in Week 1.
I also warned about blindly picking against bad teams, which saw people buying into the hype of the Titans over the lowly Jets. If you got too cute in Week 1 and picked the Titans, you are probably not reading this article anymore.
Week 2 Survivor Picks
Lock
Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts
I was a big believer in Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs coming into this year. People were hoping for their demise with Mahomes coming back from a season-ending knee injury. What they showed Week 1 was a masterclass against divisional foe Los Angeles Chargers.
They now get to stay home and welcome in the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are coming off a beatdown at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. The Colts couldn’t stop the running game of Derrick Henry or Lamar Jackson, and I don’t see them doing much better against Kenneth Walker.
If the Colts can manage to score points or stop the run, we still have Patrick Mahomes out there. He finds ways to win. The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites. The line hasn’t moved much, showing that the bettors and experts don’t give the Colts much of a chance.
In Consideration
San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins
This matchup started the week and still holds the biggest margin. The 49ers have a -13.5 line right now. The projected over/under for the game is 47 points, which implies the Dolphins are only going to score 16.5 points. A reasonable line considering they only scored 13 in Week 1, while the 49ers put up 27.
I haven’t considered this for my LOCK because I am worried about the return travel from Australia the 49ers are facing. They went down a week early ot be able to acclimate to the time difference and have had over a week to adjust to being home, but there are still some concerns. Not enough to completely take them out of contention, but enough to not lock my whole Survivor pool on them.
In consideration
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cleveland Browns
It may be low-hanging fruit to pick the teams going against the Cleveland Browns, but they just aren’t a good football team right now. They only managed to score 10 points in Week 1. They don’t have high-quality players at the skill positions and traded away the one good defensive player they had this offseason.
On the other side, the Buccaneers were a mess in Week 1. They were the only team not to punt the ball at all in Week 1 and lost the game 33-27 against the Bengals.
Some might be out on the Bucs, which I get, and it’s why they are my 3rd choice this week. I do think there is something about Baker Mayfield when there is a chip on his shoulder, and people are counting him out. After the Week 1 disaster, he will be looking to prove everyone wrong, including the team that cut him.
Trap
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tennessee Titans
With how bad the Titans looked last week, the Eagles will be a popular pick this week. I think this is one of the biggest traps for survivor pools.
First, we have the Eagles breaking one of my rules, which is they are on the road. It’s only a 1-hour time zone change going to Nashville, but it’s still days at a hotel away from family and routine.
We also have an Eagles team that didn’t look great in Week 1. Quarterback Jalen Hurts only completed 56% of his passes and now loses left guard and pro bowler Landon Dickerson to IR. The Birds are only a 6.5-point favorite, which is low for a perennial Super Bowl contender against a forever rebuilding franchise.
The Eagles could also be looking ahead to a Week 3 Monday Night Football game against the red-hot Chicago Bears.
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