Wide Receivers
Start: Emeka Egbuka
I’m stacking the Bucs players this week. As I mentioned in the Fantasy Football Week 2 Start/Sit: QB and TE Decisions article, the Browns are a defense I want to target. I anticipate this being the case all year long. Their secondary is pathetic, and since they traded away their former star defensive end, Myles Garrett, they aren’t generating the same kind of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. This is a bounce-back spot for the Tampa Bay passing attack.
Consensus has Egbuka ranked as the WR20 this week, but there’s clear top-12 upside. As a rookie, Egbuka commanded 7.5 targets per game. Last week, he only saw six, but caught five of them for 63 yards. This was a solid performance, even if it doesn’t reflect it on the fantasy box score. Egbuka is the clear alpha receiver in this offense, as 30-year-old Chris Godwin commanded four targets, and only Bucky Irving out-targeted him with one more target.
This is the home opener for the Buccaneers, and they are 8.5-point home favorites. While this game won’t be a shootout, I expect the Bucs to come out firing on all cylinders to make up for last week’s dud passing game performance. Expect Baker to target Egbuka early and often against this porous Browns secondary. He’ll be starting confidently in my starting lineups where I own him.
Sit: Rashee Rice
While many will be quick to give the Kansas City passing game some grace after doing very little against Denver’s defensive unit, I’m much more concerned - especially for Rice.
Rice’s separation metrics were trending at one point this week on social media. He’s never been a good separator, so, interestingly, people are just now starting to talk about it. Managers drafted Rice because of his elite fantasy upside; however, there’s context as to what gets him there. The Chiefs haven’t managed to have a reliable or threatening run game in years, but that’s obviously changed with the addition of running back Ken Walker.
Rice has been spammed for targets at the goal line over the past couple of years and has been relied on his yards after the catch (YAC) ability to make up for the lack of a run game. Now, with Ken Walker getting fed like a workhorse, that role isn’t needed as badly. On top of that, Rice hasn’t looked like himself as he’s tried rehabbing from his knee surgery this offseason. Apparently, prison isn’t the ideal place to do this, as he looks objectively awful.
The Chiefs are 6.5-point home favorites this week against the Colts, so expect another heavy dose of running. The Colts were one of the worst teams against the run last week, as they ranked 27th in Rush EPA (0.101). The Colts were also near the bottom third of the league in defense for rush success rate.
I expect a better game out of Rice than his Week 1 dud performance. He’s currently just outside of the consensus top-12 WRs this week (13), but I’m much more bearish. He looks hampered by his poor knee recovery, and I’m tempering my expectations until he showcases that he’s anywhere near fully recovered.
Running Backs
Start: Jadarian Price
Many fantasy managers are disappointed with Price’s fantasy production in Week 1. He neared a 50-50 split with George Holani, who’s nowhere near as talented. This led to a mediocre 7.80 fantasy points against the Patriots defense, who were projected to be top eight this season.
Unfortunately for the Seahawks, Sam Darnold sustained a glute injury in Week 1 and is slated to miss Week 2 against the Arizona Cardinals. Drew Lock steps in as the starter in a matchup where Seattle is currently 3.5-point road favorites.
I fully expect Seattle to lean on its run game and defense in this matchup, as the Cardinals aren’t likely to make this into any kind of shootout. Price was highly efficient on the ground, as he rushed 10 times for 52 yards. He even showcased his pass-catching ability with two receptions on two targets, proving doubters wrong that he was only an early down grinder.
While Price is currently projected to be just a flex-worthy start this week, there’s RB2 or better upside this week. His volume should grow, and this week’s matchup presents a good opportunity for Seattle to let off the reins and see what they have in their highly drafted rookie running back. Seattle should still be able to control the pace of this game, even without Sam Darnold.
Sit: David Montgomery
This is sure to ruffle some feathers. Montgomery went nuclear for fantasy in Week 1 with his 28.9-point performance. Don’t get it twisted, he was carried by his touchdown equity. His efficiency was awful. He rushed 20 times for just 60 yards, totaling a pedestrian 3.0 yards per carry.
It’s feared that wide receiver Nico Collins will miss this game due to his hamstring injury, as you don’t typically get imaging done immediately if it’s not serious. If this happens, Stroud would be throwing to an ugly wide receiver room of Kayshon Boutte, Xavier Hutchinson, and Jaylin Noel.
I’d expect the boxes to be loaded with the expectation that the Texans will try to lean on their inefficient run game. Last week was great if you started Montgomery, but he’s not going to be scoring three touchdowns consistently. Furthermore, while Montgomery got the volume touches, he was out-snapped by Woody Marks, who had a 51% snap share compared to Montgomery’s 39.7%. Montgomery benefited from the offense having a lot of plays, not from dominating snaps out of the backfield. The Bengals were bad at the run last week against the Chargers, but it’s a mistake to compare Omarion Hampton to David Montgomery. With both teams dealing with injuries, this game could easily be one of those ugly, low-scoring affairs that are disappointing for fantasy. Montgomery isn’t going to yield many, if any, more top-12 weeks like Week 1 moving forward. Don’t bank on another massive touchdown carried weak for fantasy production.
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