Every year, someone goes nuclear after the All-Star break.
Sometimes it's obvious.
More often, the signs are hiding beneath the surface.
For this article, I looked at recent wOBA vs. xwOBA to identify superstar hitters whose underlying contact quality suggests they're capable of an even bigger second half.
A higher xwOBA than wOBA doesn't guarantee a breakout.
But it often means a hitter deserves better results than they've actually received.
Here are five stars who could make serious MVP pushes over the final two months.
Yordan Alvarez
wOBA: .439
xwOBA: .475
Difference: +.036
Yordan Alvarez already looks like one of baseball's best hitters.
The scary part?
Statcast believes he's been even better.
His .475 expected wOBA is absurd.
Very few hitters in baseball combine elite bat speed, plate discipline and quality of contact the way Alvarez does, and when those underlying numbers continue outpacing actual production, more damage usually follows.
If Houston stays in the playoff race, don't be surprised if Alvarez forces himself into the AL MVP conversation.
Bobby Witt Jr.
wOBA: .353
xwOBA: .389
Difference: +.036
This hasn't been the explosive season fantasy managers expected.
But Bobby Witt Jr. continues to hit the baseball much harder than his results suggest.
The combination of elite athleticism, power, speed and improving contact quality gives him arguably the highest ceiling on this list.
If the underlying metrics begin translating into box-score production, Witt has the ability to carry fantasy teams for two months.