47 games to play · 13,124 past finals · typical game 38%
Riskiest first By kickoff
2 2 games shownNotre Dame at Navy Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 books The line 30.5 Notre Dame favouredmedian book spread 21+ chance 72% Very high
0% 100%
323 games like it Nevada at UCLA Sat 4:15 PM ET · 10 books The line 23.5 UCLA favouredmedian book spread 21+ chance 56% High
0% 100%
555 games like it The check · 13,044 finals predicted blind Under 3 points
19% model
20% happened
1,491 finals
3 to 6.5 points
21% model
22% happened
3,051 finals
7 to 13.5 points
28% model
29% happened
3,489 finals
14 to 20.5 points
41% model
43% happened
2,282 finals
21 to 27.5 points a game this week
58% model
59% happened
1,315 finals
28 or more points a game this week
82% model
83% happened
1,416 finals
Each season 2014–2026 predicted by the others · bar = what happened · rule = the model · 0 to 100%
2026 so far · 958 finals predicted blind Under 3 points
19% model
20% happened
104 finals
3 to 6.5 points
21% model
18% happened
234 finals
7 to 13.5 points
29% model
29% happened
245 finals
14 to 20.5 points
42% model
39% happened
158 finals
21 to 27.5 points a game this week
Fewer than 100 finals, so no share is printed.
— model
— happened
80 finals
28 or more points a game this week
83% model
88% happened
137 finals
The 2026 season predicted by every other season · bar = what happened · rule = the model · 0 to 100%
Gauge 0 to 100% · rule = typical game · emerald low, coral high
College usage splits are not read in this room yet, so no player is named on a game.
45 more games this week · 47 in all
Every college game of the week, each with its chance of a final 21 or more apart.
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Built Sun, 25 Oct 2026 16:32:54 GMT from this week's posted college spreads and every regular-season college final since 2014 with a closing spread.
Past finals: 13,124 regular-season finals since 2014 with a closing spread; 5,018 ended 21+ apart (38%, the typical game).
Games like it: A game takes the finals whose closing spread sat nearest its own (at least 300), shifts each favourite's miss onto this week's spread, and counts how many land 21+ apart. Nothing is smoothed, so the key numbers stay.
If it gets away: College usage splits are not read in this room yet, so no player is named on a game.
A pick'em: 18% of finals like a pick'em ended 21+ apart.
The check: Under 3 points: model 19%, happened 20% over 1491 finals · 3 to 6.5 points: model 21%, happened 22% over 3051 finals · 7 to 13.5 points: model 28%, happened 29% over 3489 finals · 14 to 20.5 points: model 41%, happened 43% over 2282 finals · 21 to 27.5 points: model 58%, happened 59% over 1315 finals · 28 or more points: model 82%, happened 83% over 1416 finals