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Overlapping cross-book lines: the window where both legs win, the locked baseline, and the price of every lottery — ranked by EV.
The Scout’s Notebook
A college football middle is an Over at a low total and an Under at a higher one, bought at two different books, which returns a locked baseline either way and a jackpot if the final college score lands in the gap. What decides whether it is worth holding is how often a college game actually finishes on those numbers — and this board answers that by counting, not by assuming.
The counting is not a preference, it is a consequence. Fitted against those same games, a Normal on the college total scores a chi-squared per degree of freedom of 23.14 — anything above 2 is a refuted shape, and college totals refute it by an order of magnitude. College scores pile up on the key numbers the sport actually produces, and a smooth curve prices the gaps between them wrong in both directions.
Where a spread is involved the board still needs a width, and the college one is its own: the measured standard deviation of the final college total is 17.91 points around a mean of 55.7, against 13.78 for the NFL over the same measurement. Borrowing the pro number here would price every college middle off a distribution roughly a fifth too narrow, which reads as free money and is not.
Priced slices today: full game. No college period scores have been derived in this repo, so college halves and quarters ship arbitrage — which needs no probability model at all — and no middles. The board says which slice it is speaking about rather than letting a half-game window borrow a full-game measurement.
Because the model was tested against the games and lost. A Normal fitted to 10,371 completed FBS games scores a chi-squared per degree of freedom of 23.14, well past the point where the shape is refused, so the board uses the counted landings the games themselves produced.
No, and the difference is measured rather than felt. The final college total swings 17.91 points around its mean where the NFL swings 13.78, so the same two-point window is a much longer shot in college than it is on Sunday. Every window on this board is priced against college games only.
An arbitrage locks a profit whoever wins, while a middle usually costs a small amount to hold and only pays its jackpot when the final number lands between the two lines. The card prints both halves of that trade: what a full cycle costs and what it returns if the college game finishes in the gap.
Learn more: College arbitrage — the same card, locked
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