NFL Betting Desk · Track Record
The NFL Grade Ledger
Every NFL edge the engine surfaces is logged the moment it appears, settled against the closing line, and graded win-or-lose against the real weekly box score. No cherry-picking, no deleted losers — the ledger keeps itself, all season long.
The verdict
−20.1 pts
below the win rate these prices had to clear
- Record
- 19-41-1
- Won
- 31.7%
- Bar to clear
- 51.8%
0%100% of decided picks
The bar is the mean break-even of the prices we were actually offered on 60 decided picks — not a flat assumption. For reference, a bet laid at -110 has to win 52.381% of the time to break even, so 50% is never the line.
Win rate
31.7%
19-41-1
Beat close
25%
20 of 81 settled
Avg CLV
+1.87%
across settled picks
Edges surfaced
133
22 in the last 7 days
By edge tier
How our NFL edges fared — sorted by edge strength, win or lose.
Eliteearly, thin sample
—under 20 decided · rate withheld- Record
- 0-1
- Avg CLV
- —
- Settled
- 0
Strongearly, thin sample
—under 20 decided · rate withheld- Record
- 0-4
- Avg CLV
- 0.00%
- Settled
- 3
LeanEV < 2.5%
35%- Record
- 19-36-1
- Avg CLV
- +1.95%
- Settled
- 78
Win rate is over decided picks (pushes and voids excluded). Every surfaced edge is counted — none are dropped, win or lose. Under 20 decided picks a tier's rate is noise rather than a read, so it is withheld and only the record shows. Record counts GRADED picks and Settled counts rows whose settle stamp has landed, and grading can run first — so a tier can honestly read 0-1 with Settled 0.
By sportsbook · where edges beat the close
Hard Rock Bet · 10 · early, thin sample
+1.90%
avg clv
BetOnline · 8 · early, thin sample
+4.79%
avg clv
FanDuel · 8 · early, thin sample
+0.53%
avg clv
Bally Bet · 8 · early, thin sample
-0.19%
avg clv
BetRivers · 8 · early, thin sample
-0.19%
avg clv
betPARX · 8 · early, thin sample
-0.19%
avg clv
DraftKings · 6 · early, thin sample
+3.98%
avg clv
MyBookie.ag · 5 · early, thin sample
0.00%
avg clv
BTU
BetUS · 4 · early, thin sample
0.00%
avg clv
BetMGM · 3 · early, thin sample
+7.97%
avg clv
theScore Bet · 3 · early, thin sample
+2.24%
avg clv
Pinnacle · 3 · early, thin sample
+1.57%
avg clv
Bovada · 2 · early, thin sample
+14.62%
avg clv
Everygame · 2 · early, thin sample
+3.12%
avg clv
Rebet · 2 · early, thin sample
0.00%
avg clv
GTbets · 1 · early, thin sample
0.00%
avg clv
Under 20 graded picks a book's rate is noise, not a read — those books are marked on the row and never ranked among the rest.
Every pick, graded or pending
| Pick | Tier | Result | Book | Your line | Close | CLV | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens ML | Lean | Win38 | DraftKings | -139 | -194 | +11.86% | Aug 28, 6:07p |
| Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers o36.5 | Lean | Loss29 / 36.5 | Pinnacle | +103 | -107 | +4.70% | Aug 28, 7:08p |
| Dallas Cowboys ML | Lean | Loss-3 | BetOnline | -118 | -180 | +15.80% | Aug 28, 8:07p |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | Lean | Loss19 | FanDuel | -144 | -130 | -4.41% | Aug 28, 7:52p |
| New York Giants ML | Lean | Win-17 | BetRivers | -148 | — | — | — |
| New York Giants ML | Lean | Win-17 | betPARX | -148 | — | — | — |
| New York Giants ML | Lean | Win-17 | Bally Bet | -148 | — | — | — |
| Indianapolis Colts ML | Lean | Loss-9 | DraftKings | -173 | -130 | -12.12% | Aug 29, 1:52p |
| New York Jets ML | Lean | — | BetOnline | +105 | -110 | +6.87% | Aug 28, 7:52p |
| Washington Commanders ML | Lean | — | Everygame | -110 | -105 | -2.27% | Aug 28, 6:07p |
| Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals u35.5 | Lean | Loss63 / 35.5 | BetRivers | -109 | -109 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| San Francisco 49ers ML | Lean | Win-6 | Everygame | +160 | — | — | — |
| Las Vegas Raiders ML | Elite | Loss-6 | Bovada | -135 | — | — | — |
| Green Bay Packers ML | Lean | Win-20 | BetMGM | +310 | +220 | +21.95% | Aug 21, 9:05p |
| Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars u38.5 | Lean | Loss51 / 38.5 | BetOnline | -102 | -102 | 0.00% | Aug 21, 7:37p |
| Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons o39.5 | Lean | Loss34 / 39.5 | FanDuel | -105 | -105 | 0.00% | Aug 14, 7:05p |
| New York Giants ML | Lean | Loss-3 | BetUS | +125 | +125 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 1:05p |
| New York Giants ML | Lean | Loss-3 | GTbets | +125 | +125 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 1:05p |
| Las Vegas Raiders ML | Lean | Loss-13 | FanDuel | -130 | -174 | +10.99% | Aug 13, 8:05p |
| Carolina Panthers ML | Lean | Loss15 | Bovada | +105 | +105 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 1:05p |
| Cleveland Browns ML | Strong | Loss24 | Bally Bet | -129 | -129 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 1:05p |
| Cleveland Browns ML | Strong | Loss24 | betPARX | -129 | -129 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 1:05p |
| Cleveland Browns ML | Strong | Loss24 | BetRivers | -129 | -129 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 1:05p |
| Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills o37.5 | Lean | Win43 / 37.5 | theScore Bet | +100 | +100 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 1:05p |
| Indianapolis Colts ML | Lean | Push0 | theScore Bet | -140 | — | — | — |
| Los Angeles Chargers ML | Lean | Win-20 | DraftKings | +110 | — | — | — |
| Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers u39.5 | Lean | Win32 / 39.5 | DraftKings | +105 | — | — | — |
| Detroit Lions ML | Lean | Loss2 | MyBookie.ag | +248 | — | — | — |
| Atlanta Falcons ML | Lean | Loss-20 | MyBookie.ag | +182 | — | — | — |
| New Orleans Saints ML | Lean | Loss-4 | Bally Bet | -118 | -118 | -1.53% | Aug 15, 4:05p |
| New Orleans Saints ML | Lean | Loss-4 | betPARX | -118 | -118 | -1.53% | Aug 15, 4:05p |
| New Orleans Saints ML | Lean | Loss-4 | BetRivers | -118 | -118 | -1.53% | Aug 15, 4:05p |
| Philadelphia Eagles ML | Lean | Loss17 | MyBookie.ag | -173 | — | — | — |
| Chicago Bears ML | Lean | Win24 | DraftKings | +130 | — | — | — |
| New Orleans Saints ML | Strong | Loss-4 | MyBookie.ag | -116 | — | — | — |
| Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals u35.5 | Lean | Loss63 / 35.5 | Rebet | -109 | -109 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals u35.5 | Lean | Loss63 / 35.5 | Bally Bet | -109 | -109 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals u35.5 | Lean | Loss63 / 35.5 | betPARX | -109 | -109 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals u35.5 | Lean | Loss63 / 35.5 | Hard Rock Bet | -110 | -110 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals u35.5 | Lean | Loss63 / 35.5 | MyBookie.ag | -110 | -110 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals u35.5 | Lean | Loss63 / 35.5 | DraftKings | -110 | -110 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals u35.5 | Lean | Loss63 / 35.5 | Rebet | -109 | -109 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals u35.5 | Lean | Loss63 / 35.5 | BetRivers | -109 | -109 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals u35.5 | Lean | Loss63 / 35.5 | Bally Bet | -109 | -109 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals u35.5 | Lean | Loss63 / 35.5 | betPARX | -109 | -109 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Carolina Panthers ML | Lean | Win-3 | Pinnacle | -107 | -107 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| New York Jets ML | Lean | Win-17 | Bovada | +150 | -130 | +29.23% | Aug 21, 7:06p |
| Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos u39.5 | Lean | Loss46 / 39.5 | BetOnline | -102 | -105 | +1.41% | Aug 21, 9:05p |
| Carolina Panthers ML | Lean | Win-17 | DraftKings | +124 | -135 | +22.29% | Aug 21, 7:37p |
| Cleveland Browns ML | Lean | Loss24 | FanDuel | -164 | -158 | -1.44% | Aug 15, 1:05p |
| Las Vegas Raiders ML | Lean | Loss-13 | BetRivers | -130 | -130 | 0.00% | Aug 13, 8:05p |
| Las Vegas Raiders ML | Lean | Loss-13 | Bally Bet | -130 | -130 | 0.00% | Aug 13, 8:05p |
| Las Vegas Raiders ML | Lean | Loss-13 | betPARX | -130 | -130 | 0.00% | Aug 13, 8:05p |
| Cincinnati Bengals ML | Lean | Win2 | DraftKings | -270 | -270 | 0.00% | Aug 13, 7:05p |
| Cincinnati Bengals ML | Lean | Win2 | DraftKings | -270 | -290 | +1.86% | Aug 13, 7:05p |
| Washington Commanders ML | Lean | Win13 | theScore Bet | +155 | +150 | +1.96% | Aug 14, 7:05p |
| New Orleans Saints ML | Lean | Loss-4 | Bally Bet | -118 | -118 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 4:05p |
| New Orleans Saints ML | Lean | Loss-4 | betPARX | -118 | -118 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 4:05p |
| New Orleans Saints ML | Lean | Loss-4 | BetRivers | -118 | -118 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 4:05p |
| Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears o40.5 | Lean | Win44 / 40.5 | Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -105 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 1:05p |
| Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears o40.5 | Lean | Win44 / 40.5 | FanDuel | -105 | -105 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 1:05p |
| New York Giants ML | Lean | Loss-3 | FanDuel | +124 | +124 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 1:05p |
| Washington Commanders ML | Lean | Win13 | BetMGM | +155 | +150 | +1.96% | Aug 14, 7:05p |
| New York Jets ML | Lean | — | BetOnline | +105 | -105 | +4.76% | Aug 21, 7:06p |
| Los Angeles Chargers ML | Lean | — | Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -105 | +2.38% | Aug 20, 10:05p |
| Las Vegas Raiders ML | Lean | — | BetOnline | +100 | -108 | +3.70% | Aug 20, 8:05p |
| Seattle Seahawks ML | Lean | — | Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -105 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 8:06p |
| Kansas City Chiefs ML | Lean | — | MyBookie.ag | -131 | -131 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 4:05p |
| Kansas City Chiefs ML | Lean | — | BetUS | -130 | -130 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 4:05p |
| New Orleans Saints ML | Lean | — | Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -105 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 4:05p |
| New Orleans Saints ML | Lean | — | Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -120 | +6.10% | Aug 15, 4:05p |
| Los Angeles Rams ML | Lean | — | BetOnline | +125 | +112 | +5.78% | Aug 15, 4:05p |
| Los Angeles Rams ML | Lean | — | Everygame | +135 | +115 | +8.51% | Aug 15, 4:05p |
| Buffalo Bills ML | Lean | — | Hard Rock Bet | +105 | +105 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 1:05p |
| Minnesota Vikings ML | Lean | — | BetOnline | -101 | -101 | 0.00% | Aug 15, 1:05p |
| Buffalo Bills ML | Lean | — | Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -120 | +10.57% | Aug 15, 1:05p |
| Atlanta Falcons ML | Lean | — | Pinnacle | +101 | +101 | 0.00% | Aug 14, 7:05p |
| Washington Commanders ML | Lean | — | MyBookie.ag | -110 | -110 | 0.00% | Aug 14, 7:05p |
| Houston Texans ML | Lean | — | Hard Rock Bet | +105 | +105 | 0.00% | Aug 13, 8:05p |
| Cincinnati Bengals ML | Lean | — | BetUS | +100 | +100 | 0.00% | Aug 13, 7:05p |
| Cincinnati Bengals ML | Lean | — | BetUS | +100 | +100 | 0.00% | Aug 13, 7:05p |
| Pittsburgh Steelers ML | Lean | — | theScore Bet | +105 | -105 | +4.76% | Aug 13, 7:05p |
| Arizona Cardinals ML | Lean | — | MyBookie.ag | -110 | -110 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Carolina Panthers ML | Lean | — | Hard Rock Bet | +105 | +105 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Arizona Cardinals ML | Lean | — | BetRivers | -112 | -112 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Arizona Cardinals ML | Lean | — | Bally Bet | -112 | -112 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Arizona Cardinals ML | Lean | — | betPARX | -112 | -112 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Arizona Cardinals ML | Lean | — | MyBookie.ag | -110 | -110 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Arizona Cardinals ML | Lean | — | FanDuel | -110 | -110 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Arizona Cardinals ML | Lean | — | BetRivers | -112 | -112 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Arizona Cardinals ML | Lean | — | Bally Bet | -112 | -112 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Arizona Cardinals ML | Lean | — | betPARX | -112 | -112 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Arizona Cardinals ML | Lean | — | BetMGM | -110 | -110 | 0.00% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
| Arizona Cardinals ML | Lean | — | FanDuel | -110 | -108 | -0.88% | Aug 6, 8:05p |
Result is the real box-score outcome; Void means the player never played (stake refunded, per book rules); CLV is the no-vig probability gap between the price you were offered and the price the same book closed at. A void carries no CLV, and is shown as a dash rather than a zero.