2009 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2009 · Ralph Wilson Stadium
Miami Dolphins
14
Buffalo BillsWinner
31
Buffalo Bills 31–14 — never really in doubt late. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · BUF
17/26, 246 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
2.5 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
17/31, 175 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
2.1 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected
Full stat lines
Box score
Miami Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 17/31 | 175 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2.1 |
| Ricky Williams | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -6.7 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 27 | 115 | 4.3 | 1 | 2.7 |
| Lex Hilliard | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Lousaka Polite | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Pat White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | -1.1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fasano | 5 | 6 | 74 | 0 | 19% | 5.0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 16% | -0.3 |
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 7 | 31 | 1 | 22% | -0.3 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 16% | -1.3 |
| Lex Hilliard | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | 1.6 |
| Lousaka Polite | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9% | 0.1 |
| Ricky Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Greg Camarillo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -1.5 |
| Joey Haynos | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -6.7 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yeremiah Bell | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Channing Crowder | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Porter | 2 | 2 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Randy Starks | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Gibril Wilson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vontae Davis | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Taylor | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Lex Hilliard | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony McDaniel | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Merling | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
Buffalo Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 17/26 | 246 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2.5 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 15 | 73 | 4.9 | 2 | 3.5 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 1 | 5.5 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 5 | 96 | 1 | 19% | 7.3 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 19% | 3.4 |
| Lee Evans | 2 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 23% | 0.4 |
| Shawn Nelson | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 15% | -0.9 |
| Jonathan Stupar | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 4% | 1.1 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 12% | -1.5 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | -0.6 |
| Corey McIntyre | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | 1.2 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Whitner | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Bryan Scott | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul Posluszny | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Draft | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Corner | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drayton Florence | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 |
| Spencer Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Maybin | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Schobel | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- MIA -3.5
- Closing total
- 38
- MIA moneyline
- -190
- BUF moneyline
- +172
Dolphins closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38; the game landed 45 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Ralph Wilson Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · astroplay
- Kickoff weather
- 49°F, wind 15 mph
- Referee
- Jeff Triplette
- Rest
- MIA 10 days · BUF 7 days
- Coaches
- Tony Sparano vs Perry Fewell
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.