Over Expected · 2026
Bengals threw 5.5 points over expected, the most of 32.
Threw on 66.2% of 308 plays where the situations asked for 60.7%.
Over expected · Offense+5.5points−1.6the offenses' average
11,555 plays1,942 set aside361 scrambles
32 of 32 teams clear the 40-play floor in this split.
Pass rate over expected · 32 teams · Every snap
Bengals +5.5 to Dolphins −11.4: 16.9 points apart across 32 offenses.
Positive means more passing than the situations asked for.
| # | Team | Plays | Actual | Asked | Over | Spread | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 308 | 66.2% | 60.7% | +5.5 | +0.07 | ||
| 2 | 336 | 65.2% | 60.4% | +4.8 | +0.12 | ||
| 3 | 373 | 68.4% | 64.1% | +4.3 | −0.08 | ||
| 4 | 375 | 70.7% | 66.6% | +4.1 | +0.08 | ||
| 5 | 357 | 67.2% | 64.0% | +3.3 | −0.01 | ||
| 6 | 303 | 57.4% | 54.5% | +3.0 | +0.16 | ||
| 7 | 336 | 56.5% | 53.7% | +2.9 | +0.21 | ||
| 8 | 402 | 65.7% | 64.7% | +1.0 | +0.05 | ||
| 9 | 330 | 62.7% | 62.0% | +0.7 | +0.18 | ||
| 10 | 428 | 59.8% | 59.9% | −0.0 | +0.05 | ||
| 11 | 348 | 63.5% | 63.8% | −0.3 | −0.09 | ||
| 12 | 497 | 55.7% | 56.3% | −0.6 | +0.05 | ||
| 13 | 399 | 62.7% | 63.3% | −0.6 | −0.02 | ||
| 14 | 370 | 64.3% | 65.0% | −0.7 | +0.04 | ||
| 15 | 348 | 65.5% | 67.2% | −1.6 | −0.13 | ||
| 16 | 399 | 63.9% | 65.7% | −1.8 | −0.05 | ||
| 17 | 375 | 63.5% | 65.3% | −1.9 | −0.01 | ||
| 18 | 351 | 57.0% | 59.0% | −2.0 | +0.21 | ||
| 19 | 374 | 64.4% | 66.5% | −2.1 | −0.13 | ||
| 20 | 375 | 61.3% | 63.9% | −2.6 | +0.02 | ||
| 21 | 397 | 60.2% | 63.0% | −2.8 | −0.06 | ||
| 22 | 347 | 58.8% | 61.9% | −3.2 | −0.03 | ||
| 23 | 339 | 59.6% | 62.9% | −3.3 | −0.09 | ||
| 24 | 354 | 56.5% | 60.0% | −3.5 | +0.16 | ||
| 25 | 297 | 56.9% | 60.7% | −3.8 | −0.10 | ||
| 26 | 374 | 58.3% | 62.4% | −4.1 | −0.08 | ||
| 27 | 388 | 60.6% | 65.1% | −4.5 | −0.03 | ||
| 28 | 359 | 54.9% | 59.8% | −4.9 | +0.11 | ||
| 29 | 317 | 62.8% | 69.0% | −6.3 | −0.15 | ||
| 30 | 356 | 53.4% | 61.2% | −7.8 | −0.07 | ||
| 31 | 370 | 59.5% | 69.5% | −10.0 | −0.22 | ||
| 32 | 273 | 58.6% | 70.0% | −11.4 | −0.12 |
Where it lives · CIN · whole season
Widest gap from the league: +14.3 points, where the model said 30-50% pass.
CIN's pass rate against the league's, by how obvious the call was.
Under 30%34 plays
34 of 40
30-50%93 plays
+14.3
50-70%63 plays
+0.9
70-85%43 plays
+7.6
85%+75 plays
+3.7
BengalsLeague
Defying the model · CIN · Every snap
Passing into a run look paid best: +0.06 expected points a snap.
Expected points a snap when the call went against the model.
Model said runDefied
Passed anyway+0.0659 snapsModel said run
Ran it−0.0668 snapsModel said passDefied
Ran anyway−0.1036 snapsModel said pass
Threw it+0.18145 snapsExpected pointsExpected points on all 94 finished games of 2026, through week 7. Week 7 still has 13 games to play — expected points are scored after each game day.
The model on trial · every team
The model's widest 2026 miss is −3.2 points, in the 60–70% rung.
Read it first: every residual above is measured against this model.
| Model said | Plays | Predicted | Actual | Miss | Predicted vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 114 | 6.4% | 5.3% | −1.1 | Predicted 6.4%, actual 5.3%, a miss of −1.1 points. |
| 10–20% | 252 | 15.8% | 17.5% | +1.6 | Predicted 15.8%, actual 17.5%, a miss of +1.6 points. |
| 20–30% | 609 | 25.1% | 24.1% | −1.0 | Predicted 25.1%, actual 24.1%, a miss of −1.0 points. |
| 30–40% | 839 | 35.6% | 32.4% | −3.2 | Predicted 35.6%, actual 32.4%, a miss of −3.2 points. |
| 40–50% | 2,541 | 45.9% | 44.7% | −1.3 | Predicted 45.9%, actual 44.7%, a miss of −1.3 points. |
| 50–60% | 1,417 | 54.1% | 51.7% | −2.5 | Predicted 54.1%, actual 51.7%, a miss of −2.5 points. |
| 60–70% | 1,181 | 64.9% | 61.6% | −3.2 | Predicted 64.9%, actual 61.6%, a miss of −3.2 points. |
| 70–80% | 1,138 | 74.7% | 73.9% | −0.8 | Predicted 74.7%, actual 73.9%, a miss of −0.8 points. |
| 80–90% | 1,016 | 85.1% | 83.7% | −1.5 | Predicted 85.1%, actual 83.7%, a miss of −1.5 points. |
| 90–100% | 2,448 | 95.9% | 95.2% | −0.7 | Predicted 95.9%, actual 95.2%, a miss of −0.7 points. |
PredictedActual