Over Expected · 2025
Cardinals threw 4.0 points over expected, the most of 32.
Threw on 69.6% of 1,070 plays where the situations asked for 65.6%.
Over expected · Offense+4.0points−2.3the offenses' average
32,813 plays5,050 set aside1,089 scrambles
32 of 32 teams clear the 40-play floor in this split.
Pass rate over expected · 32 teams · Every snap
Cardinals +4.0 to Ravens −8.8: 12.8 points apart across 32 offenses.
Positive means more passing than the situations asked for.
| # | Team | Plays | Actual | Asked | Over | Spread | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,070 | 69.6% | 65.6% | +4.0 | −0.02 | ||
| 2 | 1,045 | 65.6% | 61.8% | +3.9 | +0.03 | ||
| 3 | 1,056 | 59.1% | 56.1% | +3.0 | +0.14 | ||
| 4 | 1,014 | 60.5% | 58.0% | +2.4 | +0.16 | ||
| 5 | 1,044 | 65.8% | 64.1% | +1.7 | −0.01 | ||
| 6 | 1,070 | 60.2% | 58.5% | +1.6 | +0.03 | ||
| 7 | 1,073 | 62.5% | 61.0% | +1.6 | +0.05 | ||
| 8 | 1,079 | 63.1% | 62.5% | +0.6 | −0.02 | ||
| 9 | 973 | 60.7% | 61.4% | −0.7 | +0.03 | ||
| 10 | 1,060 | 58.9% | 59.8% | −0.9 | +0.09 | ||
| 11 | 1,004 | 59.7% | 60.6% | −0.9 | +0.08 | ||
| 12 | 1,101 | 61.9% | 62.8% | −1.0 | +0.10 | ||
| 13 | 1,072 | 60.0% | 61.1% | −1.1 | −0.01 | ||
| 14 | 939 | 60.8% | 62.0% | −1.2 | −0.12 | ||
| 15 | 939 | 63.7% | 65.4% | −1.7 | −0.22 | ||
| 16 | 992 | 57.8% | 60.2% | −2.5 | +0.03 | ||
| 17 | 1,061 | 63.1% | 66.2% | −3.0 | −0.09 | ||
| 18 | 1,057 | 60.4% | 63.8% | −3.5 | −0.01 | ||
| 19 | 1,056 | 55.3% | 58.8% | −3.5 | +0.14 | ||
| 20 | 1,024 | 62.4% | 66.1% | −3.7 | −0.19 | ||
| 21 | 995 | 64.9% | 68.8% | −3.9 | −0.16 | ||
| 22 | 1,090 | 58.7% | 62.6% | −3.9 | +0.08 | ||
| 23 | 972 | 58.0% | 62.3% | −4.3 | +0.01 | ||
| 24 | 991 | 55.7% | 60.1% | −4.4 | +0.11 | ||
| 25 | 1,050 | 59.4% | 64.0% | −4.6 | +0.08 | ||
| 26 | 1,075 | 58.0% | 62.7% | −4.7 | +0.01 | ||
| 27 | 939 | 56.4% | 62.3% | −5.8 | −0.02 | ||
| 28 | 991 | 58.7% | 64.8% | −6.1 | −0.04 | ||
| 29 | 1,032 | 56.5% | 62.7% | −6.2 | −0.02 | ||
| 30 | 994 | 52.1% | 58.9% | −6.8 | +0.03 | ||
| 31 | 1,001 | 60.7% | 69.5% | −8.8 | −0.13 | ||
| 32 | 954 | 52.5% | 61.4% | −8.8 | +0.03 |
Where it lives · ARI · whole season
Widest gap from the league: +12.0 points, where the model said 50-70% pass.
ARI's pass rate against the league's, by how obvious the call was.
Under 30%62 plays
+0.4
30-50%296 plays
+11.6
50-70%224 plays
+12.0
70-85%194 plays
+8.1
85%+294 plays
−2.6
CardinalsLeague
Defying the model · ARI · Every snap
Passing into a run look paid best: +0.04 expected points a snap.
Expected points a snap when the call went against the model.
Model said runDefied
Passed anyway+0.04168 snapsModel said run
Ran it−0.16190 snapsModel said passDefied
Ran anyway−0.04135 snapsModel said pass
Threw it+0.02577 snapsExpected pointsExpected points on all 272 finished games of 2025, through week 18.
The model on trial · every team
The model's widest 2025 miss is −5.5 points, in the 80–90% rung.
Read it first: every residual above is measured against this model.
| Model said | Plays | Predicted | Actual | Miss | Predicted vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 396 | 6.4% | 5.6% | −0.8 | Predicted 6.4%, actual 5.6%, a miss of −0.8 points. |
| 10–20% | 783 | 15.8% | 16.1% | +0.2 | Predicted 15.8%, actual 16.1%, a miss of +0.2 points. |
| 20–30% | 1,713 | 25.3% | 23.3% | −2.0 | Predicted 25.3%, actual 23.3%, a miss of −2.0 points. |
| 30–40% | 2,475 | 35.7% | 33.2% | −2.5 | Predicted 35.7%, actual 33.2%, a miss of −2.5 points. |
| 40–50% | 7,268 | 45.9% | 43.8% | −2.1 | Predicted 45.9%, actual 43.8%, a miss of −2.1 points. |
| 50–60% | 3,980 | 54.2% | 53.4% | −0.8 | Predicted 54.2%, actual 53.4%, a miss of −0.8 points. |
| 60–70% | 3,380 | 65.0% | 61.7% | −3.3 | Predicted 65.0%, actual 61.7%, a miss of −3.3 points. |
| 70–80% | 3,166 | 74.8% | 71.9% | −2.9 | Predicted 74.8%, actual 71.9%, a miss of −2.9 points. |
| 80–90% | 2,885 | 85.2% | 79.7% | −5.5 | Predicted 85.2%, actual 79.7%, a miss of −5.5 points. |
| 90–100% | 6,767 | 95.9% | 94.6% | −1.2 | Predicted 95.9%, actual 94.6%, a miss of −1.2 points. |
PredictedActual