Over Expected · 2024
Bengals threw 8.2 points over expected, the most of 32.
Threw on 67.6% of 1,066 plays where the situations asked for 59.5%.
Over expected · Offense+8.2points−2.3the offenses' average
33,336 plays5,205 set aside1,062 scrambles
32 of 32 teams clear the 40-play floor in this split.
Pass rate over expected · 32 teams · Every snap
Bengals +8.2 to Eagles −8.8: 17.0 points apart across 32 offenses.
Positive means more passing than the situations asked for.
| # | Team | Plays | Actual | Asked | Over | Spread | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,066 | 67.6% | 59.5% | +8.2 | +0.09 | ||
| 2 | 1,067 | 63.5% | 58.4% | +5.2 | +0.07 | ||
| 3 | 1,028 | 60.8% | 56.9% | +3.9 | +0.02 | ||
| 4 | 1,005 | 66.2% | 63.8% | +2.4 | −0.01 | ||
| 5 | 1,015 | 66.0% | 64.3% | +1.7 | −0.03 | ||
| 6 | 1,044 | 63.4% | 62.6% | +0.8 | −0.05 | ||
| 7 | 1,037 | 62.1% | 61.6% | +0.5 | +0.02 | ||
| 8 | 1,113 | 68.5% | 68.1% | +0.4 | −0.19 | ||
| 9 | 1,081 | 60.3% | 60.5% | −0.2 | +0.13 | ||
| 10 | 1,085 | 59.7% | 59.9% | −0.2 | +0.14 | ||
| 11 | 1,049 | 66.7% | 67.7% | −0.9 | −0.14 | ||
| 12 | 993 | 58.8% | 60.3% | −1.5 | +0.04 | ||
| 13 | 1,004 | 57.6% | 59.6% | −2.0 | +0.19 | ||
| 14 | 1,012 | 60.4% | 62.6% | −2.2 | +0.07 | ||
| 15 | 984 | 63.6% | 65.8% | −2.2 | −0.05 | ||
| 16 | 1,049 | 64.8% | 67.2% | −2.4 | −0.08 | ||
| 17 | 1,092 | 62.6% | 65.1% | −2.4 | −0.11 | ||
| 18 | 1,026 | 59.7% | 62.2% | −2.5 | +0.07 | ||
| 19 | 1,071 | 61.2% | 63.7% | −2.5 | −0.04 | ||
| 20 | 1,017 | 62.4% | 65.5% | −3.1 | −0.09 | ||
| 21 | 1,097 | 54.3% | 57.8% | −3.4 | +0.17 | ||
| 22 | 984 | 61.4% | 64.9% | −3.5 | −0.02 | ||
| 23 | 1,044 | 63.5% | 67.0% | −3.5 | −0.10 | ||
| 24 | 1,024 | 57.9% | 61.5% | −3.6 | +0.02 | ||
| 25 | 1,022 | 60.1% | 65.3% | −5.3 | −0.06 | ||
| 26 | 1,064 | 54.9% | 61.3% | −6.4 | −0.03 | ||
| 27 | 1,026 | 59.6% | 66.6% | −7.0 | −0.12 | ||
| 28 | 1,036 | 52.2% | 59.7% | −7.5 | +0.22 | ||
| 29 | 1,069 | 55.6% | 63.7% | −8.1 | +0.03 | ||
| 30 | 1,016 | 51.3% | 59.6% | −8.3 | +0.08 | ||
| 31 | 1,029 | 55.1% | 63.6% | −8.5 | −0.05 | ||
| 32 | 1,087 | 49.1% | 57.9% | −8.8 | +0.11 |
Where it lives · CIN · whole season
Widest gap from the league: +17.8 points, where the model said 50-70% pass.
CIN's pass rate against the league's, by how obvious the call was.
Under 30%120 plays
+10.7
30-50%313 plays
+7.1
50-70%273 plays
+17.8
70-85%134 plays
+13.8
85%+226 plays
+2.7
BengalsLeague
Defying the model · CIN · Every snap
Passing into a run look paid best: +0.19 expected points a snap.
Expected points a snap when the call went against the model.
Model said runDefied
Passed anyway+0.19185 snapsModel said run
Ran it−0.10248 snapsModel said passDefied
Ran anyway+0.0097 snapsModel said pass
Threw it+0.16536 snapsExpected pointsExpected points on all 272 finished games of 2024, through week 18.
The model on trial · every team
The model's widest 2024 miss is −3.4 points, in the 30–40% rung.
Read it first: every residual above is measured against this model.
| Model said | Plays | Predicted | Actual | Miss | Predicted vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 346 | 6.5% | 4.6% | −1.8 | Predicted 6.5%, actual 4.6%, a miss of −1.8 points. |
| 10–20% | 762 | 15.9% | 13.3% | −2.6 | Predicted 15.9%, actual 13.3%, a miss of −2.6 points. |
| 20–30% | 1,706 | 25.4% | 23.7% | −1.7 | Predicted 25.4%, actual 23.7%, a miss of −1.7 points. |
| 30–40% | 2,569 | 35.6% | 32.2% | −3.4 | Predicted 35.6%, actual 32.2%, a miss of −3.4 points. |
| 40–50% | 7,261 | 45.9% | 43.9% | −2.0 | Predicted 45.9%, actual 43.9%, a miss of −2.0 points. |
| 50–60% | 4,032 | 54.0% | 50.7% | −3.3 | Predicted 54.0%, actual 50.7%, a miss of −3.3 points. |
| 60–70% | 3,447 | 64.9% | 62.5% | −2.4 | Predicted 64.9%, actual 62.5%, a miss of −2.4 points. |
| 70–80% | 3,296 | 74.8% | 71.5% | −3.2 | Predicted 74.8%, actual 71.5%, a miss of −3.2 points. |
| 80–90% | 3,088 | 85.1% | 82.3% | −2.8 | Predicted 85.1%, actual 82.3%, a miss of −2.8 points. |
| 90–100% | 6,829 | 95.8% | 94.9% | −0.9 | Predicted 95.8%, actual 94.9%, a miss of −0.9 points. |
PredictedActual