Over Expected · 2023
Chiefs threw 6.6 points over expected, the most of 32.
Threw on 67.8% of 1,054 plays where the situations asked for 61.2%.
Over expected · Offense+6.6points−1.6the offenses' average
33,836 plays4,866 set aside1,035 scrambles
32 of 32 teams clear the 40-play floor in this split.
Pass rate over expected · 32 teams · Every snap
Chiefs +6.6 to Falcons −9.7: 16.4 points apart across 32 offenses.
Positive means more passing than the situations asked for.
| # | Team | Plays | Actual | Asked | Over | Spread | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,054 | 67.8% | 61.2% | +6.6 | +0.02 | ||
| 2 | 1,031 | 67.3% | 61.7% | +5.6 | −0.01 | ||
| 3 | 1,056 | 69.6% | 64.1% | +5.5 | −0.11 | ||
| 4 | 1,099 | 62.0% | 58.9% | +3.1 | +0.10 | ||
| 5 | 1,096 | 64.4% | 61.7% | +2.7 | −0.07 | ||
| 6 | 1,062 | 66.7% | 64.5% | +2.2 | −0.04 | ||
| 7 | 1,095 | 65.2% | 64.5% | +0.7 | −0.08 | ||
| 8 | 1,091 | 59.5% | 59.1% | +0.4 | +0.11 | ||
| 9 | 1,036 | 61.1% | 60.8% | +0.3 | +0.06 | ||
| 10 | 981 | 64.4% | 64.2% | +0.2 | +0.02 | ||
| 11 | 1,062 | 57.2% | 57.7% | −0.6 | +0.06 | ||
| 12 | 1,034 | 59.1% | 60.1% | −1.0 | +0.10 | ||
| 13 | 1,045 | 66.3% | 67.5% | −1.2 | −0.25 | ||
| 14 | 1,102 | 59.2% | 60.3% | −1.2 | +0.05 | ||
| 15 | 1,025 | 62.2% | 64.0% | −1.8 | −0.02 | ||
| 16 | 993 | 60.8% | 63.0% | −2.1 | −0.10 | ||
| 17 | 996 | 54.3% | 56.5% | −2.2 | +0.17 | ||
| 18 | 1,045 | 63.6% | 65.9% | −2.3 | −0.17 | ||
| 19 | 1,073 | 61.2% | 63.9% | −2.6 | −0.03 | ||
| 20 | 1,098 | 59.5% | 62.1% | −2.7 | −0.02 | ||
| 21 | 1,085 | 58.5% | 61.4% | −2.9 | +0.04 | ||
| 22 | 1,014 | 61.7% | 65.3% | −3.6 | −0.19 | ||
| 23 | 1,172 | 59.2% | 62.9% | −3.7 | −0.15 | ||
| 24 | 995 | 60.3% | 64.2% | −3.9 | −0.06 | ||
| 25 | 1,112 | 57.6% | 61.5% | −3.9 | +0.06 | ||
| 26 | 1,082 | 59.4% | 63.4% | −4.0 | −0.04 | ||
| 27 | 1,085 | 57.0% | 61.9% | −5.0 | −0.05 | ||
| 28 | 983 | 58.5% | 63.9% | −5.4 | −0.05 | ||
| 29 | 1,091 | 62.5% | 68.0% | −5.5 | −0.18 | ||
| 30 | 1,005 | 56.1% | 62.3% | −6.2 | −0.07 | ||
| 31 | 1,059 | 59.4% | 65.9% | −6.5 | −0.07 | ||
| 32 | 1,079 | 55.5% | 65.2% | −9.7 | −0.10 |
Where it lives · KC · whole season
Widest gap from the league: +12.8 points, where the model said 70-85% pass.
KC's pass rate against the league's, by how obvious the call was.
Under 30%96 plays
+2.5
30-50%300 plays
+8.3
50-70%275 plays
+10.0
70-85%145 plays
+12.8
85%+238 plays
+4.4
ChiefsLeague
Defying the model · KC · Every snap
Passing into a run look paid best: +0.09 expected points a snap.
Expected points a snap when the call went against the model.
Model said runDefied
Passed anyway+0.09173 snapsModel said run
Ran it−0.10223 snapsModel said passDefied
Ran anyway−0.09116 snapsModel said pass
Threw it+0.07542 snapsExpected pointsExpected points on all 272 finished games of 2023, through week 18.
The model on trial · every team
The model's widest 2023 miss is −3.5 points, in the 60–70% rung.
Read it first: every residual above is measured against this model.
| Model said | Plays | Predicted | Actual | Miss | Predicted vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 359 | 6.2% | 5.6% | −0.6 | Predicted 6.2%, actual 5.6%, a miss of −0.6 points. |
| 10–20% | 680 | 16.0% | 16.0% | +0.1 | Predicted 16.0%, actual 16.0%, a miss of +0.1 points. |
| 20–30% | 1,677 | 25.3% | 23.7% | −1.6 | Predicted 25.3%, actual 23.7%, a miss of −1.6 points. |
| 30–40% | 2,537 | 35.7% | 32.2% | −3.4 | Predicted 35.7%, actual 32.2%, a miss of −3.4 points. |
| 40–50% | 7,555 | 46.0% | 45.7% | −0.2 | Predicted 46.0%, actual 45.7%, a miss of −0.2 points. |
| 50–60% | 4,271 | 54.1% | 52.0% | −2.1 | Predicted 54.1%, actual 52.0%, a miss of −2.1 points. |
| 60–70% | 3,442 | 64.8% | 61.4% | −3.5 | Predicted 64.8%, actual 61.4%, a miss of −3.5 points. |
| 70–80% | 3,298 | 74.8% | 71.8% | −3.0 | Predicted 74.8%, actual 71.8%, a miss of −3.0 points. |
| 80–90% | 2,986 | 85.1% | 83.9% | −1.2 | Predicted 85.1%, actual 83.9%, a miss of −1.2 points. |
| 90–100% | 7,031 | 95.9% | 95.1% | −0.8 | Predicted 95.9%, actual 95.1%, a miss of −0.8 points. |
PredictedActual