Over Expected · 2022
Chiefs threw 10.9 points over expected, the most of 32.
Threw on 66.9% of 1,080 plays where the situations asked for 56.1%.
Over expected · Offense+10.9points−2.5the offenses' average
33,652 plays4,856 set aside905 scrambles
32 of 32 teams clear the 40-play floor in this split.
Pass rate over expected · 32 teams · Every snap
Chiefs +10.9 to Bears −14.1: 25.0 points apart across 32 offenses.
Positive means more passing than the situations asked for.
| # | Team | Plays | Actual | Asked | Over | Spread | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,080 | 66.9% | 56.1% | +10.9 | +0.19 | ||
| 2 | 1,028 | 66.1% | 58.5% | +7.7 | +0.08 | ||
| 3 | 1,015 | 64.7% | 58.6% | +6.1 | +0.12 | ||
| 4 | 1,135 | 67.9% | 63.5% | +4.4 | +0.01 | ||
| 5 | 1,139 | 68.0% | 63.7% | +4.3 | −0.04 | ||
| 6 | 1,110 | 65.8% | 63.3% | +2.4 | −0.01 | ||
| 7 | 993 | 64.0% | 62.1% | +2.0 | +0.05 | ||
| 8 | 1,031 | 63.1% | 61.6% | +1.6 | −0.00 | ||
| 9 | 1,059 | 61.0% | 60.9% | +0.1 | +0.05 | ||
| 10 | 1,101 | 56.7% | 57.7% | −1.0 | +0.11 | ||
| 11 | 982 | 61.1% | 62.3% | −1.2 | −0.05 | ||
| 12 | 1,133 | 65.8% | 67.5% | −1.7 | −0.09 | ||
| 13 | 1,076 | 58.2% | 59.9% | −1.7 | +0.07 | ||
| 14 | 1,068 | 62.0% | 64.2% | −2.2 | −0.11 | ||
| 15 | 1,006 | 63.3% | 65.7% | −2.4 | −0.19 | ||
| 16 | 1,063 | 64.7% | 67.3% | −2.6 | −0.09 | ||
| 17 | 987 | 61.9% | 65.0% | −3.1 | −0.09 | ||
| 18 | 1,033 | 58.6% | 62.0% | −3.5 | +0.00 | ||
| 19 | 1,044 | 61.9% | 65.4% | −3.5 | +0.00 | ||
| 20 | 1,098 | 58.2% | 61.9% | −3.7 | +0.01 | ||
| 21 | 1,095 | 62.6% | 66.3% | −3.8 | −0.17 | ||
| 22 | 1,030 | 54.0% | 58.4% | −4.4 | +0.08 | ||
| 23 | 1,028 | 54.7% | 59.5% | −4.8 | +0.00 | ||
| 24 | 1,071 | 58.4% | 64.0% | −5.7 | +0.03 | ||
| 25 | 1,099 | 54.5% | 60.6% | −6.1 | +0.01 | ||
| 26 | 1,001 | 56.1% | 63.0% | −6.9 | −0.04 | ||
| 27 | 1,128 | 55.7% | 63.3% | −7.6 | −0.08 | ||
| 28 | 1,097 | 56.0% | 63.6% | −7.7 | +0.01 | ||
| 29 | 967 | 52.6% | 61.4% | −8.8 | −0.03 | ||
| 30 | 978 | 54.0% | 64.7% | −10.7 | −0.06 | ||
| 31 | 997 | 48.7% | 62.5% | −13.7 | +0.00 | ||
| 32 | 980 | 51.4% | 65.6% | −14.1 | −0.04 |
Where it lives · KC · whole season
Widest gap from the league: +19.9 points, where the model said 70-85% pass.
KC's pass rate against the league's, by how obvious the call was.
Under 30%143 plays
+10.7
30-50%355 plays
+10.5
50-70%277 plays
+19.2
70-85%126 plays
+19.9
85%+179 plays
+3.6
ChiefsLeague
Defying the model · KC · Every snap
Passing into a run look paid best: +0.16 expected points a snap.
Expected points a snap when the call went against the model.
Model said runDefied
Passed anyway+0.16224 snapsModel said run
Ran it+0.00274 snapsModel said passDefied
Ran anyway−0.0583 snapsModel said pass
Threw it+0.34499 snapsExpected pointsExpected points on all 271 finished games of 2022, through week 18.
The model on trial · every team
The model's widest 2022 miss is −4.2 points, in the 80–90% rung.
Read it first: every residual above is measured against this model.
| Model said | Plays | Predicted | Actual | Miss | Predicted vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 404 | 6.3% | 5.9% | −0.4 | Predicted 6.3%, actual 5.9%, a miss of −0.4 points. |
| 10–20% | 722 | 15.7% | 14.5% | −1.2 | Predicted 15.7%, actual 14.5%, a miss of −1.2 points. |
| 20–30% | 1,661 | 25.1% | 22.4% | −2.7 | Predicted 25.1%, actual 22.4%, a miss of −2.7 points. |
| 30–40% | 2,464 | 35.7% | 32.3% | −3.4 | Predicted 35.7%, actual 32.3%, a miss of −3.4 points. |
| 40–50% | 7,538 | 46.0% | 43.8% | −2.1 | Predicted 46.0%, actual 43.8%, a miss of −2.1 points. |
| 50–60% | 4,306 | 54.0% | 51.0% | −3.0 | Predicted 54.0%, actual 51.0%, a miss of −3.0 points. |
| 60–70% | 3,454 | 64.9% | 61.8% | −3.1 | Predicted 64.9%, actual 61.8%, a miss of −3.1 points. |
| 70–80% | 3,217 | 74.8% | 72.8% | −2.1 | Predicted 74.8%, actual 72.8%, a miss of −2.1 points. |
| 80–90% | 2,973 | 85.1% | 81.0% | −4.2 | Predicted 85.1%, actual 81.0%, a miss of −4.2 points. |
| 90–100% | 6,913 | 95.9% | 94.4% | −1.5 | Predicted 95.9%, actual 94.4%, a miss of −1.5 points. |
PredictedActual