Over Expected · 2021
Chiefs threw 9.4 points over expected, the most of 32.
Threw on 67.3% of 1,114 plays where the situations asked for 57.9%.
Over expected · Offense+9.4points−1.2the offenses' average
33,986 plays4,981 set aside910 scrambles
32 of 32 teams clear the 40-play floor in this split.
Pass rate over expected · 32 teams · Every snap
Chiefs +9.4 to Titans −8.2: 17.6 points apart across 32 offenses.
Positive means more passing than the situations asked for.
| # | Team | Plays | Actual | Asked | Over | Spread | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,114 | 67.3% | 57.9% | +9.4 | +0.14 | ||
| 2 | 1,118 | 68.2% | 60.1% | +8.1 | +0.14 | ||
| 3 | 1,119 | 65.1% | 60.7% | +4.4 | +0.10 | ||
| 4 | 1,112 | 66.5% | 62.8% | +3.8 | +0.09 | ||
| 5 | 1,049 | 61.5% | 57.8% | +3.7 | +0.13 | ||
| 6 | 1,041 | 62.1% | 59.5% | +2.6 | +0.08 | ||
| 7 | 1,069 | 63.9% | 61.7% | +2.2 | −0.02 | ||
| 8 | 1,082 | 63.3% | 61.3% | +2.0 | −0.06 | ||
| 9 | 1,133 | 61.9% | 60.6% | +1.3 | +0.09 | ||
| 10 | 1,027 | 65.7% | 65.4% | +0.4 | −0.09 | ||
| 11 | 1,109 | 59.8% | 59.5% | +0.3 | +0.08 | ||
| 12 | 1,032 | 60.8% | 61.1% | −0.3 | +0.06 | ||
| 13 | 995 | 63.2% | 64.3% | −1.1 | −0.10 | ||
| 14 | 1,095 | 62.1% | 63.2% | −1.1 | −0.14 | ||
| 15 | 1,096 | 64.3% | 65.6% | −1.3 | −0.07 | ||
| 16 | 1,169 | 63.0% | 64.3% | −1.4 | +0.01 | ||
| 17 | 1,037 | 63.6% | 65.3% | −1.7 | −0.17 | ||
| 18 | 945 | 60.0% | 62.1% | −2.1 | +0.03 | ||
| 19 | 1,018 | 65.3% | 67.4% | −2.1 | −0.09 | ||
| 20 | 1,063 | 61.6% | 64.0% | −2.4 | −0.10 | ||
| 21 | 1,069 | 60.3% | 62.8% | −2.5 | +0.02 | ||
| 22 | 1,058 | 59.6% | 63.0% | −3.3 | −0.05 | ||
| 23 | 1,004 | 61.0% | 64.6% | −3.6 | −0.14 | ||
| 24 | 1,039 | 55.7% | 60.0% | −4.3 | +0.05 | ||
| 25 | 1,029 | 58.5% | 63.3% | −4.8 | +0.02 | ||
| 26 | 1,039 | 57.5% | 62.4% | −5.0 | +0.01 | ||
| 27 | 1,033 | 55.9% | 61.1% | −5.3 | +0.07 | ||
| 28 | 1,050 | 60.7% | 66.2% | −5.5 | −0.07 | ||
| 29 | 1,035 | 55.7% | 62.0% | −6.3 | −0.07 | ||
| 30 | 1,061 | 54.4% | 60.9% | −6.5 | +0.07 | ||
| 31 | 1,029 | 54.6% | 61.3% | −6.7 | +0.09 | ||
| 32 | 1,117 | 53.7% | 61.9% | −8.2 | +0.02 |
Where it lives · KC · whole season
Widest gap from the league: +15.6 points, where the model said 70-85% pass.
KC's pass rate against the league's, by how obvious the call was.
Under 30%120 plays
+9.0
30-50%376 plays
+12.7
50-70%289 plays
+11.0
70-85%124 plays
+15.6
85%+205 plays
+3.0
ChiefsLeague
Defying the model · KC · Every snap
Passing into a run look paid best: +0.30 expected points a snap.
Expected points a snap when the call went against the model.
Model said runDefied
Passed anyway+0.30241 snapsModel said run
Ran it+0.02255 snapsModel said passDefied
Ran anyway−0.06109 snapsModel said pass
Threw it+0.18509 snapsExpected pointsExpected points on all 272 finished games of 2021, through week 18.
The model on trial · every team
The model's widest 2021 miss is −2.4 points, in the 0–10% rung.
Read it first: every residual above is measured against this model.
| Model said | Plays | Predicted | Actual | Miss | Predicted vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 393 | 6.5% | 4.1% | −2.4 | Predicted 6.5%, actual 4.1%, a miss of −2.4 points. |
| 10–20% | 771 | 15.8% | 13.9% | −2.0 | Predicted 15.8%, actual 13.9%, a miss of −2.0 points. |
| 20–30% | 1,816 | 25.3% | 23.6% | −1.7 | Predicted 25.3%, actual 23.6%, a miss of −1.7 points. |
| 30–40% | 2,540 | 35.7% | 33.9% | −1.8 | Predicted 35.7%, actual 33.9%, a miss of −1.8 points. |
| 40–50% | 7,446 | 45.9% | 45.6% | −0.2 | Predicted 45.9%, actual 45.6%, a miss of −0.2 points. |
| 50–60% | 4,263 | 54.1% | 52.3% | −1.8 | Predicted 54.1%, actual 52.3%, a miss of −1.8 points. |
| 60–70% | 3,536 | 64.8% | 63.9% | −1.0 | Predicted 64.8%, actual 63.9%, a miss of −1.0 points. |
| 70–80% | 3,321 | 74.8% | 72.4% | −2.4 | Predicted 74.8%, actual 72.4%, a miss of −2.4 points. |
| 80–90% | 3,014 | 85.1% | 84.2% | −0.9 | Predicted 85.1%, actual 84.2%, a miss of −0.9 points. |
| 90–100% | 6,886 | 95.8% | 95.3% | −0.5 | Predicted 95.8%, actual 95.3%, a miss of −0.5 points. |
PredictedActual