Over Expected · 2020
Chiefs threw 9.5 points over expected, the most of 32.
Threw on 66.7% of 1,039 plays where the situations asked for 57.1%.
Over expected · Offense+9.5points−0.6the offenses' average
32,444 plays4,577 set aside864 scrambles
32 of 32 teams clear the 40-play floor in this split.
Pass rate over expected · 32 teams · Every snap
Chiefs +9.5 to Patriots −12.0: 21.6 points apart across 32 offenses.
Positive means more passing than the situations asked for.
| # | Team | Plays | Actual | Asked | Over | Spread | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,039 | 66.7% | 57.1% | +9.5 | +0.18 | ||
| 2 | 1,006 | 64.8% | 55.8% | +9.0 | +0.17 | ||
| 3 | 1,022 | 65.9% | 59.4% | +6.6 | +0.01 | ||
| 4 | 1,004 | 66.0% | 59.8% | +6.2 | +0.09 | ||
| 5 | 989 | 65.7% | 59.7% | +6.0 | +0.12 | ||
| 6 | 928 | 70.7% | 65.3% | +5.4 | +0.10 | ||
| 7 | 1,003 | 62.0% | 59.2% | +2.9 | +0.00 | ||
| 8 | 965 | 58.9% | 56.4% | +2.5 | +0.22 | ||
| 9 | 980 | 63.5% | 62.4% | +1.1 | +0.00 | ||
| 10 | 1,066 | 64.2% | 63.3% | +0.9 | +0.02 | ||
| 11 | 1,036 | 64.5% | 63.8% | +0.7 | −0.06 | ||
| 12 | 992 | 69.2% | 68.6% | +0.5 | −0.06 | ||
| 13 | 1,059 | 67.0% | 66.7% | +0.3 | −0.09 | ||
| 14 | 1,031 | 64.8% | 64.6% | +0.2 | −0.03 | ||
| 15 | 1,030 | 63.0% | 62.8% | +0.2 | −0.05 | ||
| 16 | 1,069 | 59.6% | 60.3% | −0.7 | −0.02 | ||
| 17 | 946 | 62.5% | 63.2% | −0.8 | −0.06 | ||
| 18 | 978 | 64.9% | 65.8% | −0.9 | −0.00 | ||
| 19 | 1,065 | 60.7% | 61.9% | −1.2 | +0.04 | ||
| 20 | 1,105 | 63.9% | 65.6% | −1.7 | −0.04 | ||
| 21 | 1,112 | 61.5% | 63.2% | −1.7 | +0.03 | ||
| 22 | 1,023 | 58.8% | 61.4% | −2.5 | +0.04 | ||
| 23 | 1,003 | 54.5% | 57.9% | −3.4 | +0.09 | ||
| 24 | 1,024 | 55.6% | 59.4% | −3.8 | +0.09 | ||
| 25 | 938 | 60.8% | 64.7% | −4.0 | −0.14 | ||
| 26 | 1,007 | 56.8% | 61.0% | −4.2 | +0.08 | ||
| 27 | 1,036 | 59.4% | 64.1% | −4.8 | +0.01 | ||
| 28 | 1,013 | 56.2% | 61.0% | −4.8 | +0.09 | ||
| 29 | 1,016 | 60.1% | 66.2% | −6.0 | −0.10 | ||
| 30 | 1,017 | 52.1% | 61.5% | −9.4 | +0.17 | ||
| 31 | 977 | 49.6% | 60.4% | −10.7 | +0.12 | ||
| 32 | 965 | 51.6% | 63.6% | −12.0 | −0.00 |
Where it lives · KC · whole season
Widest gap from the league: +13.5 points, where the model said 30-50% pass.
KC's pass rate against the league's, by how obvious the call was.
Under 30%129 plays
+6.7
30-50%341 plays
+13.5
50-70%266 plays
+9.5
70-85%103 plays
+10.7
85%+200 plays
+4.6
ChiefsLeague
Defying the model · KC · Every snap
Passing into a run look paid best: +0.22 expected points a snap.
Expected points a snap when the call went against the model.
Model said runDefied
Passed anyway+0.22227 snapsModel said run
Ran it−0.05243 snapsModel said passDefied
Ran anyway−0.03103 snapsModel said pass
Threw it+0.33466 snapsExpected pointsExpected points on all 256 finished games of 2020, through week 17.
The model on trial · every team
The model's widest 2020 miss is −2.5 points, in the 80–90% rung.
Read it first: every residual above is measured against this model.
| Model said | Plays | Predicted | Actual | Miss | Predicted vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 390 | 6.3% | 6.7% | +0.4 | Predicted 6.3%, actual 6.7%, a miss of +0.4 points. |
| 10–20% | 699 | 15.9% | 15.3% | −0.6 | Predicted 15.9%, actual 15.3%, a miss of −0.6 points. |
| 20–30% | 1,680 | 25.3% | 23.3% | −2.0 | Predicted 25.3%, actual 23.3%, a miss of −2.0 points. |
| 30–40% | 2,433 | 35.7% | 34.1% | −1.6 | Predicted 35.7%, actual 34.1%, a miss of −1.6 points. |
| 40–50% | 7,364 | 45.8% | 46.5% | +0.6 | Predicted 45.8%, actual 46.5%, a miss of +0.6 points. |
| 50–60% | 4,144 | 54.1% | 53.9% | −0.2 | Predicted 54.1%, actual 53.9%, a miss of −0.2 points. |
| 60–70% | 3,417 | 64.9% | 64.2% | −0.7 | Predicted 64.9%, actual 64.2%, a miss of −0.7 points. |
| 70–80% | 2,962 | 74.7% | 73.4% | −1.3 | Predicted 74.7%, actual 73.4%, a miss of −1.3 points. |
| 80–90% | 2,812 | 85.0% | 82.5% | −2.5 | Predicted 85.0%, actual 82.5%, a miss of −2.5 points. |
| 90–100% | 6,543 | 95.9% | 95.3% | −0.5 | Predicted 95.9%, actual 95.3%, a miss of −0.5 points. |
PredictedActual