Over Expected · 2019
Chiefs threw 7.8 points over expected, the most of 32.
Threw on 65.1% of 959 plays where the situations asked for 57.3%.
Over expected · Offense+7.8points−0.9the offenses' average
32,047 plays4,880 set aside784 scrambles
32 of 32 teams clear the 40-play floor in this split.
Pass rate over expected · 32 teams · Every snap
Chiefs +7.8 to Vikings −8.5: 16.2 points apart across 32 offenses.
Positive means more passing than the situations asked for.
| # | Team | Plays | Actual | Asked | Over | Spread | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 959 | 65.1% | 57.3% | +7.8 | +0.13 | ||
| 2 | 1,010 | 70.3% | 65.1% | +5.2 | −0.10 | ||
| 3 | 986 | 62.4% | 58.4% | +4.0 | +0.10 | ||
| 4 | 1,081 | 69.7% | 66.8% | +2.9 | +0.01 | ||
| 5 | 996 | 63.7% | 61.0% | +2.7 | +0.05 | ||
| 6 | 1,066 | 66.4% | 63.9% | +2.5 | −0.01 | ||
| 7 | 1,042 | 63.6% | 61.6% | +2.0 | +0.01 | ||
| 8 | 1,070 | 66.7% | 65.2% | +1.5 | −0.09 | ||
| 9 | 1,004 | 62.6% | 61.4% | +1.2 | +0.06 | ||
| 10 | 1,007 | 67.3% | 66.2% | +1.1 | −0.07 | ||
| 11 | 1,007 | 67.7% | 67.3% | +0.4 | −0.05 | ||
| 12 | 985 | 64.0% | 63.7% | +0.2 | +0.00 | ||
| 13 | 1,011 | 63.9% | 63.8% | +0.1 | −0.09 | ||
| 14 | 1,078 | 60.4% | 60.3% | +0.0 | −0.01 | ||
| 15 | 1,093 | 61.9% | 62.5% | −0.5 | −0.01 | ||
| 16 | 986 | 64.3% | 65.1% | −0.8 | +0.02 | ||
| 17 | 965 | 61.7% | 62.7% | −1.0 | −0.04 | ||
| 18 | 1,034 | 65.1% | 66.4% | −1.4 | −0.11 | ||
| 19 | 1,001 | 59.2% | 60.8% | −1.5 | −0.03 | ||
| 20 | 941 | 61.6% | 63.4% | −1.8 | −0.16 | ||
| 21 | 923 | 60.8% | 62.9% | −2.1 | −0.17 | ||
| 22 | 1,009 | 63.1% | 65.5% | −2.4 | −0.04 | ||
| 23 | 1,058 | 60.4% | 62.8% | −2.4 | +0.12 | ||
| 24 | 1,028 | 59.0% | 61.5% | −2.5 | +0.02 | ||
| 25 | 942 | 60.0% | 62.6% | −2.6 | −0.07 | ||
| 26 | 980 | 57.6% | 61.6% | −4.0 | +0.05 | ||
| 27 | 877 | 61.9% | 66.3% | −4.4 | −0.14 | ||
| 28 | 998 | 57.7% | 63.2% | −5.5 | −0.00 | ||
| 29 | 991 | 52.9% | 58.7% | −5.8 | +0.07 | ||
| 30 | 926 | 57.0% | 63.1% | −6.1 | +0.06 | ||
| 31 | 1,037 | 48.6% | 56.5% | −7.9 | +0.21 | ||
| 32 | 956 | 52.6% | 61.1% | −8.5 | +0.06 |
Where it lives · KC · whole season
Widest gap from the league: +15.6 points, where the model said 50-70% pass.
KC's pass rate against the league's, by how obvious the call was.
Under 30%117 plays
−5.0
30-50%300 plays
+11.7
50-70%259 plays
+15.6
70-85%111 plays
+8.4
85%+172 plays
+1.4
ChiefsLeague
Defying the model · KC · Every snap
Passing into a run look paid best: +0.22 expected points a snap.
Expected points a snap when the call went against the model.
Model said runDefied
Passed anyway+0.22171 snapsModel said run
Ran it−0.04246 snapsModel said passDefied
Ran anyway−0.2189 snapsModel said pass
Threw it+0.25453 snapsExpected pointsExpected points on all 256 finished games of 2019, through week 17.
The model on trial · every team
The model's widest 2019 miss is −5.0 points, in the 10–20% rung.
Read it first: every residual above is measured against this model.
| Model said | Plays | Predicted | Actual | Miss | Predicted vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 352 | 6.2% | 3.1% | −3.1 | Predicted 6.2%, actual 3.1%, a miss of −3.1 points. |
| 10–20% | 677 | 15.6% | 10.6% | −5.0 | Predicted 15.6%, actual 10.6%, a miss of −5.0 points. |
| 20–30% | 1,604 | 25.2% | 21.3% | −3.9 | Predicted 25.2%, actual 21.3%, a miss of −3.9 points. |
| 30–40% | 2,320 | 35.7% | 34.0% | −1.7 | Predicted 35.7%, actual 34.0%, a miss of −1.7 points. |
| 40–50% | 7,038 | 45.9% | 43.3% | −2.6 | Predicted 45.9%, actual 43.3%, a miss of −2.6 points. |
| 50–60% | 4,048 | 54.2% | 52.9% | −1.3 | Predicted 54.2%, actual 52.9%, a miss of −1.3 points. |
| 60–70% | 3,402 | 65.0% | 63.6% | −1.3 | Predicted 65.0%, actual 63.6%, a miss of −1.3 points. |
| 70–80% | 3,068 | 74.9% | 75.8% | +1.0 | Predicted 74.9%, actual 75.8%, a miss of +1.0 points. |
| 80–90% | 2,911 | 85.1% | 86.8% | +1.8 | Predicted 85.1%, actual 86.8%, a miss of +1.8 points. |
| 90–100% | 6,627 | 95.9% | 96.9% | +1.0 | Predicted 95.9%, actual 96.9%, a miss of +1.0 points. |
PredictedActual