Over Expected · 2018
Steelers threw 8.7 points over expected, the most of 32.
Threw on 69.5% of 1,041 plays where the situations asked for 60.8%.
Over expected · Offense+8.7points−0.5the offenses' average
31,751 plays4,866 set aside796 scrambles
32 of 32 teams clear the 40-play floor in this split.
Pass rate over expected · 32 teams · Every snap
Steelers +8.7 to Seahawks −11.7: 20.4 points apart across 32 offenses.
Positive means more passing than the situations asked for.
| # | Team | Plays | Actual | Asked | Over | Spread | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,041 | 69.5% | 60.8% | +8.7 | +0.10 | ||
| 2 | 983 | 64.7% | 56.8% | +7.9 | +0.24 | ||
| 3 | 1,017 | 71.5% | 64.9% | +6.6 | +0.05 | ||
| 4 | 1,044 | 69.3% | 64.6% | +4.8 | +0.04 | ||
| 5 | 1,002 | 67.4% | 63.3% | +4.1 | +0.07 | ||
| 6 | 1,044 | 65.2% | 61.8% | +3.4 | +0.07 | ||
| 7 | 1,022 | 63.9% | 61.2% | +2.7 | +0.03 | ||
| 8 | 991 | 66.6% | 64.2% | +2.4 | −0.08 | ||
| 9 | 1,036 | 59.7% | 58.3% | +1.4 | +0.15 | ||
| 10 | 993 | 62.6% | 61.5% | +1.2 | +0.06 | ||
| 11 | 995 | 58.5% | 57.8% | +0.7 | +0.02 | ||
| 12 | 999 | 64.4% | 64.2% | +0.1 | −0.12 | ||
| 13 | 931 | 59.3% | 59.2% | +0.1 | +0.14 | ||
| 14 | 1,006 | 63.1% | 63.1% | +0.1 | −0.01 | ||
| 15 | 929 | 64.5% | 64.7% | −0.2 | −0.01 | ||
| 16 | 1,051 | 56.9% | 57.3% | −0.4 | +0.08 | ||
| 17 | 976 | 62.4% | 63.1% | −0.7 | −0.05 | ||
| 18 | 1,024 | 60.5% | 61.5% | −0.9 | +0.01 | ||
| 19 | 978 | 64.7% | 65.8% | −1.1 | +0.02 | ||
| 20 | 985 | 55.6% | 57.2% | −1.6 | +0.14 | ||
| 21 | 1,007 | 60.8% | 62.4% | −1.6 | +0.02 | ||
| 22 | 1,009 | 62.2% | 64.3% | −2.0 | −0.04 | ||
| 23 | 956 | 61.8% | 64.0% | −2.1 | −0.07 | ||
| 24 | 1,003 | 63.0% | 65.6% | −2.6 | −0.02 | ||
| 25 | 987 | 60.1% | 63.1% | −3.0 | −0.05 | ||
| 26 | 865 | 59.7% | 63.0% | −3.3 | −0.11 | ||
| 27 | 998 | 59.5% | 63.8% | −4.3 | −0.15 | ||
| 28 | 957 | 60.5% | 65.1% | −4.6 | −0.13 | ||
| 29 | 893 | 62.8% | 68.1% | −5.2 | −0.26 | ||
| 30 | 1,112 | 54.5% | 61.2% | −6.7 | +0.02 | ||
| 31 | 929 | 55.8% | 63.4% | −7.6 | −0.03 | ||
| 32 | 988 | 50.5% | 62.2% | −11.7 | +0.09 |
Where it lives · PIT · whole season
Widest gap from the league: +15.3 points, where the model said 50-70% pass.
PIT's pass rate against the league's, by how obvious the call was.
Under 30%94 plays
+7.3
30-50%333 plays
+8.8
50-70%255 plays
+15.3
70-85%127 plays
+14.0
85%+232 plays
+2.5
SteelersLeague
Defying the model · PIT · Every snap
Passing into a run look paid best: +0.16 expected points a snap.
Expected points a snap when the call went against the model.
Model said runDefied
Passed anyway+0.16194 snapsModel said run
Ran it+0.02233 snapsModel said passDefied
Ran anyway−0.3384 snapsModel said pass
Threw it+0.18530 snapsExpected pointsExpected points on all 256 finished games of 2018, through week 17.
The model on trial · every team
The model's widest 2018 miss is −4.7 points, in the 0–10% rung.
Read it first: every residual above is measured against this model.
| Model said | Plays | Predicted | Actual | Miss | Predicted vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 359 | 6.4% | 1.7% | −4.7 | Predicted 6.4%, actual 1.7%, a miss of −4.7 points. |
| 10–20% | 687 | 15.7% | 12.4% | −3.3 | Predicted 15.7%, actual 12.4%, a miss of −3.3 points. |
| 20–30% | 1,592 | 25.4% | 22.7% | −2.7 | Predicted 25.4%, actual 22.7%, a miss of −2.7 points. |
| 30–40% | 2,436 | 35.7% | 35.4% | −0.3 | Predicted 35.7%, actual 35.4%, a miss of −0.3 points. |
| 40–50% | 7,067 | 45.8% | 45.0% | −0.8 | Predicted 45.8%, actual 45.0%, a miss of −0.8 points. |
| 50–60% | 4,040 | 54.2% | 54.4% | +0.2 | Predicted 54.2%, actual 54.4%, a miss of +0.2 points. |
| 60–70% | 3,306 | 64.9% | 63.4% | −1.5 | Predicted 64.9%, actual 63.4%, a miss of −1.5 points. |
| 70–80% | 2,951 | 74.8% | 74.2% | −0.6 | Predicted 74.8%, actual 74.2%, a miss of −0.6 points. |
| 80–90% | 2,907 | 85.2% | 85.2% | +0.1 | Predicted 85.2%, actual 85.2%, a miss of +0.1 points. |
| 90–100% | 6,406 | 95.9% | 97.0% | +1.1 | Predicted 95.9%, actual 97.0%, a miss of +1.1 points. |
PredictedActual