2010 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2010 · Sun Life Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

Miami Dolphins

MIA -5.5 upsetU 40 ✓18 mph windDolphins closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 17–14 — decided on the final possessions. Played in 18 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

Pre-2018 game — box score & context only; play-by-play visuals start in 2018

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Chad HenneQB

33/45, 276 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

3.5 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

16/26, 223 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

9.0 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Ronnie BrownRB

10 att, 39 yds, 1 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Fred JacksonRB

15 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Brandon MarshallWR

11/12 for 106 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Davone BessWR

9/13 for 78 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	16/26	223	2	1	2	9.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Fred Jackson	15	36	2.4	-2.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick	3	19	6.3	-0.2
C.J. Spiller	9	16	1.8	-4.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Steve Johnson	6	9	69	1	35%	3.5
David Nelson	3	3	61	1	12%	7.7
Naaman Roosevelt	2	3	35	0	12%	3.4
Donald Jones	1	4	29	0	15%	-2.7
C.J. Spiller	2	2	21	0	8%	1.6
Scott Chandler	1	1	8	0	4%	0.5
Fred Jackson	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.4
Jonathan Stupar	1	1	0	0	4%	-0.9
Corey McIntyre	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Donte Whitner	5	2	0.5
Drayton Florence	7	0	0.0
Kyle Williams	5	1	0.5
Leodis McKelvin	6	0	0.0
Paul Posluszny	4	1	0.0
Arthur Moats	5	0	1.0
Terrence McGee	4	1	0.0
Jairus Byrd	4	0	1.0
Akin Ayodele	4	0	0.0
Spencer Johnson	2	0	0.0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Chad Henne	33/45	276	1	1	3	3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ronnie Brown	10	39	3.9	1	-0.2
Ricky Williams	7	19	2.7	0	-1.6
Kevin Curtis	1	6	6.0	0	-0.0
Lousaka Polite	1	1	1.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Marshall	11	12	106	1	27%	7.8
Davone Bess	9	13	78	0	30%	2.4
Ricky Williams	5	6	34	0	14%	1.2
Anthony Fasano	3	5	30	0	11%	-0.7
Patrick Cobbs	1	3	13	0	7%	-3.0
Kevin Curtis	1	2	6	0	5%	-0.3
Lousaka Polite	2	2	6	0	5%	-0.0
Ronnie Brown	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Yeremiah Bell	9	0	0.0	0	0
Tony McDaniel	4	0	1.0	0	0
Paul Soliai	3	0	0.0	0	1
Benny Sapp	3	0	0.0	1	1
Randy Starks	2	1	0.0	0	0
Karlos Dansby	2	1	0.0	0	0
Joe Berger	2	0	0.0	0	0
Phillip Merling	2	0	0.0	0	0
Kendall Langford	2	0	0.0	0	0
Vontae Davis	2	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -5.5
Closing total: 40
BUF moneyline: +210
MIA moneyline: -235

Dolphins closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 31 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Sun Life Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 67°F, wind 18 mph
Referee: Jeff Triplette
Rest: BUF 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Chan Gailey vs Tony Sparano

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 18 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.