2011 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 25, 2011 · Ralph Wilson Stadium
New England Patriots
31
at
Buffalo BillsWinner
34
NE -7 upsetO 54 ✓
Buffalo Bills 34–31 — decided on the final possessions.
Pre-2018 game — box score & context only; play-by-play visuals start in 2018
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · NE
30/45, 387 yds, 4 TD, 4 INT
11.6 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
27/40, 369 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
9.4 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected
Full stat lines
Box score
New England Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/45 | 387 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 11.6 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 | 2.2 |
| Danny Woodhead | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 | 1.3 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 | -2.7 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 1.3 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | -1.0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 16 | 20 | 217 | 2 | 44% | 25.5 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 9 | 109 | 2 | 20% | 6.6 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 9% | -4.9 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 11% | -4.7 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2% | 0.5 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 7% | -8.9 |
| Deion Branch | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7% | -2.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin McCourty | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Arrington | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Leigh Bodden | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brandon Spikes | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gary Guyton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Barrett | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sergio Brown | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Carter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerod Mayo | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Buffalo Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 27/40 | 369 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9.4 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 12 | 74 | 6.2 | 1 | 2.8 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Donald Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | -6 | -1.5 | 0 | -2.1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Jones | 5 | 10 | 101 | 0 | 25% | -3.7 |
| Steve Johnson | 8 | 10 | 94 | 1 | 25% | 7.1 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 6 | 87 | 0 | 15% | 4.2 |
| David Nelson | 6 | 8 | 84 | 0 | 20% | 2.1 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 8% | 1.9 |
| Brad Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 3% | -1.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Wilson | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Barnett | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jairus Byrd | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bryan Scott | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Leodis McKelvin | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Aaron Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Corner | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris White | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drayton Florence | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Kelsay | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NE -7
- Closing total
- 54
- NE moneyline
- -310
- BUF moneyline
- +273
Patriots closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 54; the game landed 65 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Ralph Wilson Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · a turf
- Kickoff weather
- 78°F, wind 8 mph
- Referee
- Carl Cheffers
- Rest
- NE 7 days · BUF 7 days
- Coaches
- Bill Belichick vs Chan Gailey
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.