2016 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2016 · Hard Rock Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Miami DolphinsWinner

BUF -2.5 upsetO 46 ✓Bills closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 28–25 — decided on the final possessions.

Pre-2018 game — box score & context only; play-by-play visuals start in 2018

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Tyrod TaylorQB

14/28, 221 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.3 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Ryan TannehillQB

15/25, 204 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.3 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Jay AjayiRB

28 att, 214 yds, 1 TD

7.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Tyrod TaylorQB

7 att, 35 yds, 1 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Kenny StillsWR

5/8 for 100 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Marquise GoodwinWR

4/7 for 93 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	14/28	221	1	0	4	2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	7	35	5.0	1	3.5
Mike Gillislee	5	20	4.0	0	1.1
LeSean McCoy	8	11	1.4	0	-3.1
Reggie Bush	1	1	1.0	1	1.5
Jerome Felton	1	0	0.0	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Goodwin	4	7	93	1	28%	3.8
Brandon Tate	2	2	31	0	8%	3.7
Charles Clay	2	5	29	0	20%	0.7
Justin Hunter	2	4	25	0	16%	1.3
Walt Powell	2	4	23	0	16%	0.5
Reggie Bush	1	2	13	0	8%	2.4
Nick O'Leary	1	1	7	0	4%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zach Brown	7	1	0.0	0
Ronald Darby	8	0	0.0	0
Robert Blanton	7	0	0.0	0
Corey Graham	6	1	0.0	3
Preston Brown	4	1	0.0	0
Lorenzo Alexander	5	0	1.0	0
Aaron Williams	2	2	0.0	0
Kyle Williams	4	0	0.0	0
Leger Douzable	3	1	0.0	0
Lerentee McCray	2	1	0.0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	15/25	204	1	0	1	6.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jay Ajayi	28	214	7.6	1	7.5
Ryan Tannehill	6	21	3.5	0	-1.7
Damien Williams	4	16	4.0	1	1.5
Arian Foster	3	5	1.7	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Stills	5	8	100	1	32%	7.7
Jarvis Landry	5	8	78	0	32%	3.3
DeVante Parker	3	4	20	0	16%	1.2
Arian Foster	1	3	4	0	12%	-3.7
Jay Ajayi	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.4
Damien Williams	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kiko Alonso	5	1	0.0	0
Michael Thomas	2	2	0.0	0
Tony Lippett	4	0	0.0	0
Neville Hewitt	3	1	0.0	0
Isa Abdul-Quddus	3	0	0.0	1
Donald Butler	3	0	0.0	0
Byron Maxwell	1	1	0.0	0
Andre Branch	0	2	0.5	0
Jelani Jenkins	2	0	0.0	0
Cameron Wake	1	1	1.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -2.5
Closing total: 46
BUF moneyline: -134
MIA moneyline: +121

Bills closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 53 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: BUF 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Rex Ryan vs Adam Gase

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.