2016 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 27, 2016 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Denver Broncos

DEN -3.5 upsetO 40 ✓21 mph windBroncos closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Kansas City Chiefs 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Played in 21 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

Pre-2018 game — box score & context only; play-by-play visuals start in 2018

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Trevor SiemianQB

20/34, 368 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.7 expected points added · +5.1% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Alex SmithQB

26/44, 220 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-5.5 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Devontae BookerRB

24 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

-5.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Spencer WareRB

17 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Emmanuel SandersWR

7/10 for 162 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 12.0 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

8/15 for 101 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	26/44	220	1	0	6	-5.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Spencer Ware	17	64	3.8	0	0.4
Charcandrick West	3	8	2.7	0	-0.2
Knile Davis	3	6	2.0	0	-1.4
Tyreek Hill	1	3	3.0	1	1.6
Alex Smith	2	2	1.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	8	15	101	0	37%	2.7
Tyreek Hill	9	10	52	1	24%	4.6
Spencer Ware	2	2	32	0	5%	2.1
Chris Conley	3	4	26	0	10%	0.7
Albert Wilson	2	6	6	0	15%	-5.1
De'Anthony Thomas	1	1	4	0	2%	-0.7
Charcandrick West	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7
Demetrius Harris	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.2
James O'Shaughnessy	1	1	-1	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Justin Houston	10	0	3.0	1
Eric Berry	5	4	0.0	0
Derrick Johnson	4	3	0.0	1
Rakeem Nunez-Roches	5	1	0.0	0
Tamba Hali	5	0	1.0	0
Ramik Wilson	2	3	0.0	0
Phillip Gaines	3	1	0.0	3
Kenneth Acker	4	0	0.0	2
D.J. Alexander	4	0	0.0	0
Ron Parker	3	1	0.0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Siemian	20/34	368	3	0	5	17.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Devontae Booker	24	79	3.3	-5.8
Trevor Siemian	5	23	4.6	1.8
Kapri Bibbs	9	22	2.4	-3.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Emmanuel Sanders	7	10	162	1	31%	12.0
Bennie Fowler	1	2	76	1	6%	5.3
Demaryius Thomas	5	8	60	0	25%	4.2
A.J. Derby	4	4	43	0	13%	3.4
Devontae Booker	1	2	22	0	6%	2.3
Jordan Taylor	1	4	6	1	13%	0.3
Jordan Norwood	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.4
Andy Janovich	1	1	-1	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Von Miller	8	1	3.0	1
Derek Wolfe	5	3	1.0	0
Jared Crick	3	3	0.0	0
Chris Harris	5	0	0.0	1
Brandon Marshall	3	2	0.0	1
Aqib Talib	3	2	0.0	0
Todd Davis	2	2	0.0	0
Shane Ray	4	0	1.0	0
DeMarcus Ware	2	1	1.0	0
Justin Simmons	3	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -3.5
Closing total: 40
KC moneyline: +161
DEN moneyline: -179

Broncos closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 57 — over by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 44°F, wind 21 mph
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: KC 7 days · DEN 14 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Gary Kubiak

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 21 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.