2016 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2016 · New Era Field
Miami DolphinsWinner
34
at
Buffalo Bills
31
BUF -4.5 upsetO 44.5 ✓
Miami Dolphins 34–31 — decided on the final possessions.
Pre-2018 game — box score & context only; play-by-play visuals start in 2018
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · BUF
26/39, 329 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
18.5 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
16/30, 233 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
7.0 expected points added · -9.3% completion over expected
Receiving · BUF
7/10 for 154 yds, 1 TD
26% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added
Full stat lines
Box score
Miami Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 16/30 | 233 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7.0 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 32 | 206 | 6.4 | 1 | 7.3 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 56 | 14.0 | 1 | 4.4 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | -2.0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 7 | 85 | 1 | 24% | 6.3 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 10% | 3.0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 28% | -1.1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 21% | -1.2 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3% | 1.5 |
| Dion Sims | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10% | -0.8 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | -0.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Paysinger | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Neville Hewitt | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bacarri Rambo | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Lippett | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavien Howard | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ndamukong Suh | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kiko Alonso | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donald Butler | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Branch | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Buffalo Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 26/39 | 329 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18.5 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 24 | 128 | 5.3 | 1 | 1.1 |
| Mike Gillislee | 11 | 91 | 8.3 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Jerome Felton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 | -1.2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 7 | 10 | 154 | 1 | 26% | 10.5 |
| Charles Clay | 8 | 10 | 85 | 2 | 26% | 11.0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 15% | 0.8 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 15% | -2.7 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 13% | -1.4 |
| Jerome Felton | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | 2.2 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Brown | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Graham | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcell Dareus | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Brown | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ronald Darby | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leger Douzable | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Corey White | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevon Seymour | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Alexander | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- BUF -4.5
- Closing total
- 44.5
- MIA moneyline
- +197
- BUF moneyline
- -220
Bills closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 65 — over by 20.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- New Era Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · a turf
- Kickoff weather
- 38°F, wind 13 mph
- Referee
- Craig Wrolstad
- Rest
- MIA 7 days · BUF 6 days
- Coaches
- Adam Gase vs Rex Ryan
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.