2018 Week 1 · Thu, Sep 6, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field

Atlanta Falcons

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

PHI -1 ✓U 44.5 ✓Eagles closed -1 and covered, winning by 6.

Philadelphia Eagles 18–12. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, ATL +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:01ATL — PHI ATL ball · 1st & 5PHI 73%

(:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Jones [96-D.Barnett].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:01ATL +27% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Jones [96-D.Barnett].
Q4 · 10:45ATL +24% win prob(10:45) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (27-D.Kazee) at PHI 47. 45-D.Jones to PHI 27 for 20 yards (26-J.Ajayi).
Q4 · 13:03ATL +21% win prob(13:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 11-J.Jones INTERCEPTED by 32-R.Douglas at PHI 4. 32-R.Douglas ran ob at PHI 4 for no gain.
Q3 · 0:34PHI +20% win prob(:34) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-J.Overbaugh. 37-T.Sullivan MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 32, RECOVERED by ATL-36-K.Ishmael at PHI 32. 36-K.Ishmael to PHI 32 for no gain (50-L.Reynolds).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Eagles
Offensive plays	65	64
Total yards	299 (edge)	235
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	-0.22	-0.08 (edge)
Success rate	32%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	75%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22 (edge)	-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22	0.15 (edge)
Third downs	4/15	8/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	13	14 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

21/43, 251 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.7 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Nick FolesQB

19/34, 117 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.2 expected points added · -12.1% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Jay AjayiRB

15 att, 62 yds, 2 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Devonta FreemanRB

6 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Julio JonesWR

10/19 for 169 yds, 0 TD

49% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Zach ErtzTE

5/10 for 48 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	11	78	4:09	Turnover on downs
2	PHI	PHI 2	4	6	1:43	Punt
3	ATL	PHI 44	9	37	4:07	Turnover on downs
4	PHI	PHI 31	7	-6	4:31	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 20	4	-9	1:18	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 40	14	54	8:03	Turnover on downs
7	ATL	ATL 25	9	26	4:01	Turnover on downs
8	PHI	PHI 5	7	11	0:48	Punt
9	ATL	ATL 11	5	20	0:47	Punt
10	PHI	PHI 13	4	4	0:33	End of half
11	PHI	PHI 25	7	12	2:35	Punt
12	ATL	ATL 20	6	18	2:14	Punt
13	PHI	PHI 37	12	63	5:34	Touchdown
14	ATL	ATL 40	5	15	2:05	Punt
15	PHI	PHI 16	4	4	1:13	Punt
16	ATL	ATL 26	4	4	0:59	Punt
17	ATL	PHI 32	5	12	2:22	Interception
18	PHI	PHI 4	4	25	2:23	Interception
19	ATL	PHI 27	3	27	0:47	Touchdown
20	PHI	PHI 25	5	6	2:15	Punt
21	ATL	ATL 33	4	6	2:42	Punt
22	PHI	PHI 46	9	56	2:32	Touchdown
23	ATL	ATL 25	13	65	2:19	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 78 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	21/43	251	0	1	4	-11.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devonta Freeman	6	36	6.0	0	-2.2
Tevin Coleman	9	19	2.1	1	-2.4
Julio Jones	1	11	11.0	0	1.0
Matt Ryan	2	8	4.0	0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	10	19	169	49%	1.1
Tevin Coleman	1	2	26	5%	2.3
Austin Hooper	3	4	24	10%	-1.3
Mohamed Sanu	4	6	18	15%	1.1
Devonta Freeman	3	5	14	13%	-3.3
Eric Saubert	0	1	0	3%	-1.2
Calvin Ridley	0	2	0	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Deion Jones	4	5	0.0	1	2
Desmond Trufant	6	0	0.0	0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	4	2	0.0	0	0
Robert Alford	4	0	0.0	0	2
Grady Jarrett	2	2	0.0	0	0
Brian Poole	4	0	1.0	0	1
Deadrin Senat	2	1	0.0	0	0
Derrick Shelby	2	0	0.0	0	0
Kemal Ishmael	1	1	0.0	0	0
Ricardo Allen	1	1	0.0	0	1

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Foles	19/34	117	0	1	2	-11.2
Nelson Agholor	1/1	15	0	0	0	1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jay Ajayi	15	62	4.1	2	3.1
Corey Clement	5	26	5.2	0	-0.2
Nelson Agholor	1	16	16.0	0	1.5
Darren Sproles	5	10	2.0	0	-0.4
Nick Foles	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Ertz	5	10	48	29%	-1.1
Nelson Agholor	8	10	33	29%	-0.5
Darren Sproles	4	7	22	20%	-0.6
Nick Foles	1	1	15	3%	1.9
DeAndre Carter	1	1	10	3%	0.8
Dallas Goedert	1	3	4	9%	-6.3
Mike Wallace	0	3	0	9%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Hicks	5	2	1.5	1
Ronald Darby	5	1	0.0	3
Jalen Mills	6	0	0.0	2
Rodney McLeod	4	1	0.0	2
Sidney Jones	3	1	0.0	0
Chris Long	0	4	1.0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	3	0	0.0	0
Fletcher Cox	1	1	1.5	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	1	1	0.0	0
Derek Barnett	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -1
Closing total: 44.5
ATL moneyline: -104
PHI moneyline: -106

Eagles closed -1 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 30 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: ATL 7 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches: Dan Quinn vs Doug Pederson