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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 7:08 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
2018 Week 1 · Thu, Sep 6, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
FalconsAtlanta12
BY 6final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia18
Atlanta Falcons 12 at Philadelphia Eagles 18. Final.
Eagles -1 ✓U 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 1
Philadelphia Eagles 18, Falcons 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:01, 1st and 5, on Matt Ryan — 26.6 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Eagles closed -1 and covered, winning by 6.
Philadelphia Eagles 18–12. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, Eagles +26.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:01 · 1st and 5
Matt Ryan
Eagles
(:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Jones [96-D.Barnett].
26.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rasul DouglasEaglesQ4 13:03(13:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 11-J.Jones INTERCEPTED by 32-R.Douglas at PHI 4. 32-R.Douglas ran ob at PHI 4 for no gain.
21.0pts
Deion JonesFalconsQ4 10:45(10:45) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (27-D.Kazee) at PHI 47. 45-D.Jones to PHI 27 for 20 yards (26-J.Ajayi).
24.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 8 of 16 on third down, against Falcons at 4 of 15 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Eagles at 3 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Falcons175 of 185 plays carry both curves
(:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Jones [96-D.Barnett].
Swing +26.6 for EaglesExpected points +2.63 for EaglesThe model had Falcons 10 points higher than the market did.play 184
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01ATL +27% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Jones [96-D.Barnett].
4th · 10:45ATL +24% win prob(10:45) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (27-D.Kazee) at PHI 47. 45-D.Jones to PHI 27 for 20 yards (26-J.Ajayi).
4th · 13:03ATL +21% win prob(13:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 11-J.Jones INTERCEPTED by 32-R.Douglas at PHI 4. 32-R.Douglas ran ob at PHI 4 for no gain.
3rd · 0:34PHI +20% win prob(:34) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-J.Overbaugh. 37-T.Sullivan MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 32, RECOVERED by ATL-36-K.Ishmael at PHI 32. 36-K.Ishmael to PHI 32 for no gain (50-L.Reynolds).
4th · 1:25PHI +18% win prob(1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones to PHI 22 for 18 yards (21-R.Darby) [56-C.Long].
4th · 0:55ATL +14% win prob(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at PHI 20 for -7 yards (91-F.Cox).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jay Ajayi's 11-yard rushing touchdown with 2:25 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st5:03Matt Bryant·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Overbaugh+33–0
2nd6:12Jake Elliott·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+33–3
2nd2:13Matt Bryant·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Overbaugh+36–3
4th9:53Tevin Coleman·9-yd TD run9-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit right upright+612–10
4th2:25Jay Ajayi·11-yd TD run11-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+812–18
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryEagles
Falcons3–5Eagles
299Total yards235
4.6Yards per play3.7
32%Success rate38%
27%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays3
13First downs14
4Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Falcons: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.08Eagles: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.22Falcons: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.25Eagles: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Falcons: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.15Eagles: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 65 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Eagles’s 64 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Eagles 3.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Eagles26.5%
leaned — got home · +8.2 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.5%, 8.2 points above their season mean of 18.4% and 1.1 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass−37% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Jones [96-D.Barnett].
Q4 0:01 · Falcons · 1st & goal at PHI 5 · gained nothing · -2.63 EP · −37.1% win probability
173 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 78 yards from the ATL 20 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
38%
Yards
533
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.0756%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.2087%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.4083%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.2550%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0571%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, three linebackers and two backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Eagles 1
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 2 to the Eagles 8
Falcons3Eagles0
Field goal10 plays, from the Eagles 44 to the Eagles 3
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Eagles 43
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays
Falcons3Eagles3
Field goal16 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Falcons 8
Falcons6Eagles3
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Eagles 25
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 5 to the Eagles 36
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Falcons 31
The period ended9 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Eagles 37
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 42
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Falcons 32
Falcons6Eagles9
Falcons6Eagles10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Falcons 1
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 20
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Falcons 30
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter51 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Eagles 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Eagles 4 to the Eagles 29
Falcons12Eagles10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Eagles 9
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 32
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Falcons12Eagles16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 46 to the Falcons 11
Falcons12Eagles18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
The period ended17 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Eagles 5
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Falconscategory by categoryEagles
Falcons3
Eagles0
