2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · M&T Bank Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -7.5 ✓O 39 ✓Ravens closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 44.

Baltimore Ravens 47–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:27, BAL +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:27BUF — BAL BAL ball · 2nd & 26BAL 69%

(12:27) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 13-J.Brown to BUF 31 for 29 yards (21-J.Poyer).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:27BAL +9% win prob(12:27) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 13-J.Brown to BUF 31 for 29 yards (21-J.Poyer).
Q1 · 13:43BUF +5% win prob(13:43) 5-J.Flacco FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 44, and recovers at 50. 5-J.Flacco to 50 for no gain (95-K.Williams).
Q1 · 13:05BUF +4% win prob(13:05) (Shotgun) 34-A.Collins right tackle to BUF 36 for 14 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 21-J.Poyer). PENALTY on BAL-72-A.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Q1 · 5:43BUF +3% win prob(5:43) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to BAL 31, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-J.Grant to BAL 34 for 3 yards (57-L.Alexander).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Ravens
Offensive plays	61	75
Total yards	153	369 (edge)
Yards per play	2.5	4.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.65	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	16%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.63	0.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.69	-0.10 (edge)
Third downs	2/15	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	8	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.65.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Joe FlaccoQB

25/34, 236 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

9.0 expected points added · +2.1% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

6/15, 74 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.9 expected points added · -13.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Kenneth DixonRB

13 att, 44 yds, 1 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

7 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Willie SneadWR

4/6 for 49 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

John BrownWR

3/4 for 44 yds, 1 TD

11% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 20	12	91	6:18	Touchdown
2	BUF	BUF 32	5	-4	1:29	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 25	4	1	0:48	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 15	4	3	0:54	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 34	11	38	3:59	Touchdown
6	BUF	BUF 25	5	12	2:29	Punt
7	BAL	BUF 20	4	-3	0:49	Turnover on downs
8	BUF	BUF 25	6	6	1:16	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 30	4	0	1:43	Fumble
10	BUF	BAL 35	4	-4	1:32	Turnover on downs
11	BAL	BAL 42	4	13	1:51	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 16	3	10	1:14	Interception
13	BAL	BUF 29	4	8	1:22	Turnover on downs
14	BUF	BUF 25	5	2	1:28	Punt
15	BAL	BAL 15	10	85	2:35	Touchdown
16	BUF	BUF 45	2	8	0:13	End of half
17	BUF	BUF 25	6	14	1:12	Turnover on downs
18	BAL	BUF 14	4	24	1:20	Touchdown
19	BUF	BUF 27	4	-1	1:02	Interception
20	BAL	BUF 1	2	1	0:04	Touchdown
21	BUF	BUF 25	5	-1	1:21	Punt
22	BAL	BAL 30	4	-7	1:52	Punt
23	BUF	BUF 37	12	38	5:31	Turnover on downs
24	BAL	BAL 25	8	16	3:03	Punt
25	BUF	BUF 18	7	26	2:40	Punt
26	BAL	BAL 11	14	94	8:03	Touchdown
27	BUF	BUF 49	5	-2	0:57	Punt
28	BAL	BAL 10	4	8	1:27	Punt
29	BUF	BUF 29	7	46	1:28	End of game

0 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 94 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	6/15	74	0	0	3	-3.9
Nathan Peterman	5/18	24	0	2	3	-24.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Marcus Murphy	6	31	5.2	-3.1
Josh Allen	4	26	6.5	2.2
LeSean McCoy	7	22	3.1	-4.4
Chris Ivory	3	3	1.0	-1.7
Nathan Peterman	1	1	1.0	-0.8
Corey Bojorquez	1	0	0.0	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Jones	3	6	26	19%	-2.0
Logan Thomas	1	2	24	6%	2.0
Jason Croom	2	3	18	9%	-1.4
Andre Holmes	1	1	14	3%	2.2
Kelvin Benjamin	1	7	10	22%	-12.0
Jeremy Kerley	2	4	7	13%	-2.0
Marcus Murphy	0	2	0	6%	-1.1
Robert Foster	0	2	0	6%	-0.7
Charles Clay	0	2	0	6%	-1.2
LeSean McCoy	1	3	-1	9%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Poyer	4	4	0.0	0
Matt Milano	7	1	0.0	0
Lorenzo Alexander	7	0	0.0	1
Tremaine Edmunds	3	4	1.0	2
Rafael Bush	3	3	0.0	0
Phillip Gaines	3	1	0.0	1
Tre'Davious White	2	2	0.0	0
Harrison Phillips	4	0	0.0	0
Kyle Williams	3	1	0.5	0
Eddie Yarbrough	3	0	0.0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	25/34	236	3	0	1	9.0
Lamar Jackson	1/4	24	0	0	1	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenneth Dixon	13	44	3.4	1	-1.3
Lamar Jackson	7	39	5.6	0	3.3
Javorius Allen	4	17	4.3	1	1.0
Alex Collins	7	13	1.9	1	-5.5
Joe Flacco	2	3	1.5	0	-0.6
John Brown	1	1	1.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Willie Snead	4	6	49	1	16%	2.4
John Brown	3	4	44	1	11%	4.1
Nick Boyle	3	6	40	0	16%	-0.2
Michael Crabtree	3	6	38	1	16%	2.4
Maxx Williams	3	3	32	0	8%	2.8
Mark Andrews	3	4	31	0	11%	1.1
Javorius Allen	5	6	15	0	16%	-1.2
Alex Collins	1	1	6	0	3%	0.2
Chris Moore	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
C.J. Mosley	4	1	0.0	0	0
Za'Darius Smith	4	1	1.0	0	0
Maurice Canady	4	0	0.0	0	0
Tony Jefferson	2	2	0.0	1	2
Kenny Young	3	0	1.0	0	0
Tavon Young	3	0	2.0	0	1
Brandon Carr	3	0	0.0	1	3
Marlon Humphrey	2	0	0.0	0	3
Chuck Clark	1	1	0.0	0	0
Tim Williams	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -7.5
Closing total: 39
BUF moneyline: +309
BAL moneyline: -355

Ravens closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 44.

Total closed 39; the game landed 50 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: BUF 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs John Harbaugh