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Baltimore Ravens 47, Bills 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:27, 2nd and 26, on John Brown — 8.8 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:27 · 2nd and 26
John Brown
Ravens
(12:27) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 13-J.Brown to BUF 31 for 29 yards (21-J.Poyer).
18 mph wind
Ravens closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 44.
Baltimore Ravens 47–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:27, Ravens +8.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 18 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBillsQ1 13:43(13:43) 5-J.Flacco FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 44, and recovers at 50. 5-J.Flacco to 50 for no gain (95-K.Williams).
4.6pts
Alex CollinsBillsQ1 13:05(13:05) (Shotgun) 34-A.Collins right tackle to BUF 36 for 14 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 21-J.Poyer). PENALTY on BAL-72-A.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
4.1pts
What separated them
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Bills at -0.65 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 16% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 6 touchdowns on 7 trips, against Bills at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — -0.10 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.69 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Andre HolmesBillsWR1 of 1 for 14+2.18 expected points on 1 touch
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Bills186 of 198 plays carry both curves
(12:27) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 13-J.Brown to BUF 31 for 29 yards (21-J.Poyer).
Swing +8.8 for RavensExpected points +2.61 for RavensThe model had Bills 14 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:27BAL +9% win prob(12:27) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 13-J.Brown to BUF 31 for 29 yards (21-J.Poyer).
1st · 13:43BUF +5% win prob(13:43) 5-J.Flacco FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 44, and recovers at 50. 5-J.Flacco to 50 for no gain (95-K.Williams).
1st · 13:05BUF +4% win prob(13:05) (Shotgun) 34-A.Collins right tackle to BUF 36 for 14 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 21-J.Poyer). PENALTY on BAL-72-A.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
1st · 5:43BUF +3% win prob(5:43) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to BAL 31, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-J.Grant to BAL 34 for 3 yards (57-L.Alexander).
2nd · 10:23BUF +3% win prob(10:23) 34-A.Collins left tackle to BAL 37 for -3 yards (49-T.Edmunds). FUMBLES (49-T.Edmunds), RECOVERED by BUF-58-M.Milano at BAL 35. 58-M.Milano to BAL 35 for no gain (34-A.Collins).
1st · 14:53BAL +3% win prob(14:53) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 86-N.Boyle to BAL 45 for 25 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 21-J.Poyer).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alex Collins's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 8:49 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:49Alex Collins·8-yd TD run8-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st1:37John Brown·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+70–14
2nd13:18Justin Tucker·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+30–17
2nd4:20Justin Tucker·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+30–20
2nd0:17Michael Crabtree·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco · two-point no good+60–26
3rd12:33Willie Snead·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+70–33
Ravens ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.65Bills: −0.65 expected points added per play
+0.05Ravens: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.63Bills: −0.63 expected points added per play
+0.16Ravens: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.69Bills: −0.69 expected points added per play
−0.10Ravens: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 61 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Ravens’s 75 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Bills 1, Ravens 7.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.65.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Ravens21.4%
inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was BAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0% against a season mean of 29.4% — and BAL swings 29.5 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
53 dressed · 9 never used
79Jordan MillsT · Every snap100%64 snaps
76John MillerG · Every snap100%64 snaps
—Vlad DucasseG · Every snap100%64 snaps
72Ryan GroyG · Every snap100%64 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Full-time97%62 snaps
11Zay JonesWR · Full-time94%60 snaps
13Kelvin BenjaminWR · Heavy rotation73%47 snaps
10Jeremy KerleyWR · Heavy rotation69%44 snaps
85Charles ClayTE · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
25LeSean McCoyRB · Heavy rotation53%34 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Heavy rotation50%32 snaps
2Nathan PetermanQB · Heavy rotation50%32 snaps
45Marcus MurphyRB · Rotational36%23 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Rotational28%18 snaps
80Jason CroomTE · Rotational28%18 snaps
16Robert FosterWR · Rotational25%16 snaps
18Andre HolmesWR · Situational17%11 snaps
33Chris IvoryRB · Situational11%7 snaps
71Marshall NewhouseT · Situational5%3 snaps
42Patrick DiMarcoFB · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Russell BodineCRyan LewisCBVontae DavisCBWyatt TellerGVladimir DucasseGJulian StanfordILBConor McDermottTKhari LeeTERay-Ray McCloudWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Flacco pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:27) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 13-J.Brown to BUF 31 for 29 yards (21-J.Poyer).
Q1 12:27 · Ravens · 2nd & 26 at BAL 40 · gained 29 · +2.61 EP · +8.6% win probability
184 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 198 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 89 yards from the BAL 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
-0.17
Success rate
34%
Yards
522
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.7467%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0768%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.1069%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR14+0.340%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0755%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Bills0Ravens6
Bills0Ravens7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Bills 8
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 26
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Bills 18
Bills0Ravens13
Bills0Ravens14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Bills 7
The period ended5 plays
2nd quarter58 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Bills 22
Bills0Ravens17
Field goal4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 29
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 40
No good5 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Ravens 29
Punt6 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Bills 18
Bills0Ravens20
Field goal4 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Bills 21
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 27
Bills0Ravens26
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Bills 12
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter47 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 39
Bills0Ravens32
Bills0Ravens33
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Bills 3
Intercepted4 plays
Bills0Ravens39
Bills0Ravens40
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 28
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 31
Bills3Ravens40
Field goal15 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Ravens 3
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 36
4th quarter48 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Bills 35
Bills3Ravens46
Bills3Ravens47
Touchdown17 plays, from the Ravens 11 to the Bills 2
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Ravens 17
The period ended10 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Ravens 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -7.5
Closing total
39
Bills moneyline
+309
Ravens moneyline
-355
Ravens closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 44.
Total closed 39; the game landed 50 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 64°F at kickoff; windy at 18 mph out of the east; 0.29 in of precipitation; slight rain.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Bills 7 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs John Harbaugh
NoteWind at 18 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 4:50BAL +3% win prob(4:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 83-W.Snead. PENALTY on BUF-24-Ta.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at BAL 37 - No Play.
2nd · 5:50BUF +3% win prob(5:50) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass deep middle intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Jefferson at BUF 44. 23-T.Jefferson to BUF 29 for 15 yards (72-R.Groy). Penalty on BUF-13-K.Benjamin, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
