2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · Lambeau Field

Chicago Bears

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -6.5 no coverO 45 ✓Packers closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Green Bay Packers 24–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:29, GB +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:29CHI — GB GB ball · 3rd & 10CHI 89%

(2:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:29GB +36% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:06CHI +32% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 38 for -8 yards (53-N.Perry). FUMBLES (53-N.Perry) [53-N.Perry], RECOVERED by GB-97-K.Clark at CHI 39. 97-K.Clark to CHI 39 for no gain (75-K.Long).
Q2 · 3:07CHI +20% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Kizer sacked at CHI 18 for -9 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at CHI 21. 52-K.Mack to CHI 21 for no gain (9-D.Kizer).
Q4 · 1:46GB +20% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep left to 18-T.Gabriel (23-J.Alexander) [52-C.Matthews]. PENALTY on GB-52-C.Matthews, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 19 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Packers
Offensive plays	66	59
Total yards	294	370 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.04	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	44% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	65%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	0.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.22
Third downs	7/17 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	15	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

20/30, 286 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

9.9 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

23/35, 171 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.0 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Jordan HowardRB

15 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Jamaal WilliamsRB

15 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Randall CobbWR

9/10 for 142 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

5/8 for 88 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	7	12	1:47	Punt
2	CHI	CHI 14	11	86	6:02	Touchdown
3	GB	GB 25	5	12	2:58	Punt
4	CHI	CHI 32	9	53	4:17	Turnover on downs
5	GB	GB 25	5	9	2:08	Punt
6	CHI	CHI 15	4	9	2:35	Punt
7	GB	GB 35	4	-8	1:26	Punt
8	CHI	GB 43	4	7	2:03	Turnover on downs
9	GB	GB 46	7	33	3:44	Fumble
10	CHI	CHI 21	4	5	1:12	Punt
11	GB	GB 25	6	5	1:09	Defensive touchdown
12	GB	GB 26	2	8	0:39	End of half
13	CHI	CHI 25	13	45	5:46	Turnover on downs
14	GB	GB 31	12	45	5:37	Turnover on downs
15	GB	CHI 25	6	9	1:43	Punt
16	GB	GB 19	9	91	2:55	Touchdown
17	CHI	CHI 25	5	9	2:07	Punt
18	GB	GB 25	6	80	2:51	Touchdown
19	CHI	CHI 25	15	61	6:22	Turnover on downs
20	GB	GB 25	5	75	0:26	Touchdown
21	CHI	CHI 18	9	11	1:15	Fumble
22	GB	CHI 39	4	7	0:58	Turnover on downs

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	23/35	171	0	0	4	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Howard	15	82	5.5	0	0.9
Mitchell Trubisky	7	32	4.6	1	-0.0
Tarik Cohen	5	25	5.0	0	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	4	7	61	21%	3.7
Jordan Howard	5	5	25	15%	0.3
Taylor Gabriel	5	5	25	15%	-1.5
Tarik Cohen	3	4	16	12%	1.3
Trey Burton	1	5	15	15%	-0.7
Anthony Miller	2	3	14	9%	1.4
Dion Sims	2	3	9	9%	-2.0
Michael Burton	1	1	6	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Danny Trevathan	5	2	0.0	0	0
Bryce Callahan	6	0	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	6	0	0.0	0	0
Nick Kwiatkoski	4	0	0.0	0	0
Prince Amukamara	3	1	0.0	0	0
Khalil Mack	2	1	1.0	1	1
Eddie Goldman	3	0	0.0	0	0
Roquan Smith	1	2	1.0	0	0
Akiem Hicks	3	0	1.0	0	0
Kyle Fuller	2	0	0.0	0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	20/30	286	3	0	2	9.9
DeShone Kizer	4/7	55	0	1	2	-7.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jamaal Williams	15	47	3.1	-3.9
Aaron Rodgers	1	15	15.0	0.3
Ty Montgomery	2	7	3.5	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Randall Cobb	9	10	142	1	28%	10.6
Davante Adams	5	8	88	1	22%	6.4
Geronimo Allison	5	8	69	1	22%	5.6
Ty Montgomery	2	3	21	0	8%	-5.9
Lance Kendricks	1	1	13	0	3%	0.8
Jimmy Graham	2	4	8	0	11%	-3.0
Jamaal Williams	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kentrell Brice	8	1	1.0	0
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix	6	0	0.0	0
Tramon Williams	5	1	0.0	0
Nick Perry	4	1	1.0	0
Blake Martinez	4	0	0.0	0
Muhammad Wilkerson	1	2	0.0	0
Mike Daniels	3	0	1.0	0
Jermaine Whitehead	3	0	0.0	1
Antonio Morrison	2	1	0.0	0
Jaire Alexander	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -6.5
Closing total: 45
CHI moneyline: +240
GB moneyline: -271

Packers closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45; the game landed 47 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: CHI 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Mike McCarthy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.