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Green Bay Packers 24, Bears 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:29, 3rd and 10, on Randall Cobb — 35.8 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:29 · 3rd and 10
Randall Cobb
Packers
(2:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Packers closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Green Bay Packers 24–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:29, Packers +35.8% win probability on one snap.
35.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DeShone KizerBearsQ2 3:07(3:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Kizer sacked at CHI 18 for -9 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at CHI 21. 52-K.Mack to CHI 21 for no gain (9-D.Kizer).
20.0pts
Mitchell TrubiskyPackersQ4 1:06(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 38 for -8 yards (53-N.Perry). FUMBLES (53-N.Perry) [53-N.Perry], RECOVERED by GB-97-K.Clark at CHI 39. 97-K.Clark to CHI 39 for no gain (75-K.Long).
32.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Bears owned this one and still lost it — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.06 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Bears164 of 177 plays carry both curves
(2:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +35.8 for PackersExpected points +6.44 for PackersModel and market agree here.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:29GB +36% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:06CHI +32% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 38 for -8 yards (53-N.Perry). FUMBLES (53-N.Perry) [53-N.Perry], RECOVERED by GB-97-K.Clark at CHI 39. 97-K.Clark to CHI 39 for no gain (75-K.Long).
2nd · 3:07CHI +20% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Kizer sacked at CHI 18 for -9 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at CHI 21. 52-K.Mack to CHI 21 for no gain (9-D.Kizer).
4th · 1:46GB +20% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep left to 18-T.Gabriel (23-J.Alexander) [52-C.Matthews]. PENALTY on GB-52-C.Matthews, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 19 - No Play.
4th · 11:20GB +12% win prob(11:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to CHI 24 for 51 yards (20-P.Amukamara).
4th · 0:03GB +11% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Adams.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Randall Cobb's 75-yard touchdown catch with 2:29 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Bears, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Bears: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.02Packers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Bears: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.06Packers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Bears: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.22Packers: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 66 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Packers’s 59 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Bears 4, Packers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Packers14.0%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 1.6 pts, 5.1 points below their season mean of 6.6 pts and 1.4 times their own 3.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
53 dressed · 8 never used
64Eric KushOG · Every snap100%70 snaps
72Charles Leno Jr.T · Every snap100%70 snaps
65Cody WhitehairC · Every snap100%70 snaps
75Kyle LongOG · Every snap100%70 snaps
70Bobby MassieT · Every snap100%70 snaps
10Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
12Allen RobinsonWR · Full-time96%67 snaps
80Trey BurtonTE · Full-time87%61 snaps
18Taylor GabrielWR · Full-time86%60 snaps
24Jordan HowardRB · Heavy rotation71%50 snaps
17Anthony MillerWR · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
29Tarik CohenRB · Rotational40%28 snaps
88Dion SimsTE · Rotational29%20 snaps
11Kevin WhiteWR · Situational17%12 snaps
46Michael BurtonFB · Situational13%9 snaps
84Ben BrauneckerTE · Situational3%2 snaps
15Josh BellamyWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Kevin ToliverDBBilal NicholsDEDeAndre Houston-CarsonFSKylie FittsLBRashaad CowardOTChase DanielQBDaniel BrownTEJavon WimsWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+42% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:29 · Packers · 3rd & 10 at GB 25 · gained 75 · +6.44 EP · +41.9% win probability
162 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 86 yards from the CHI 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
39%
Yards
664
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.1364%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0778%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.1858%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0364%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.3629%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.5929%
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears3 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 37
Bears6Packers0
Bears7Packers0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 14 to the Packers 2
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 27
The period ended10 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Packers 3
2nd quarter43 plays
Bears10Packers0
Field goal1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 34
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 24
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Packers 36
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerTwo
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Packers 43 to the Packers 37
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Bears 8
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Bears 26
Bears16Packers0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 39
Bears17Packers0
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Bears20Packers0
Field goal14 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Packers 15
Bears20Packers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Bears 23
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 33
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 19 to the Packers 42
4th quarter60 plays
Bears20Packers9
Bears20Packers10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Packers 43 to the Bears 39
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Bears20Packers16
Bears20Packers17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bears 12
Bears23Packers17
Field goal19 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Packers 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.7 seconds
Bears23Packers23
Bears23Packers24
Touchdown5 plays
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThree
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Bears 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Bears 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -6.5
Closing total
45
Bears moneyline
+240
Packers moneyline
-271
Packers closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45; the game landed 47 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 59°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the north-east; clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Bears 7 days · Packers 7 days
Coaches
Matt Nagy vs Mike McCarthy
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 3:28GB +11% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 17-A.Miller to GB 38 for 11 yards (29-K.Brice).
2nd · 6:49CHI +10% win prob(6:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at GB 43 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at GB 46. 10-M.Trubisky to GB 46 for no gain (53-N.Perry).
