2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Indianapolis Colts

CIN -1 ✓O 47.5 ✓DomeBengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.

Cincinnati Bengals 34–23. Biggest swing: Q4 0:40, CIN +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:40CIN — IND IND ball · 3rd & 15CIN 64%

(:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 84-J.Doyle to CIN 15 for 15 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). FUMBLES (42-C.Fejedelem), RECOVERED by CIN-42-C.Fejedelem at CIN 17. 42-C.Fejedelem for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:40CIN +35% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 84-J.Doyle to CIN 15 for 15 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). FUMBLES (42-C.Fejedelem), RECOVERED by CIN-42-C.Fejedelem at CIN 17. 42-C.Fejedelem for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:11CIN +21% win prob(14:11) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left intended for 28-J.Mixon INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore II at CIN 39. 23-K.Moore II to CIN 7 for 32 yards (14-A.Dalton).
Q2 · 2:00IND +13% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 18-A.Green. PENALTY on IND-31-Q.Wilson, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at IND 39 - No Play.
Q4 · 11:10IND +11% win prob(11:10) 74-J.Fisher and 94-S.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Colts
Offensive plays	50	77
Total yards	330	380 (edge)
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.02 (edge)	-0.09
Success rate	54% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	64%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	-0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	-0.31
Third downs	4/8	11/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	17	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Colts outgained Bengals 380–330 but lost the turnover battle 3–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

39/53, 319 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

7.1 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Andy DaltonQB

21/28, 243 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.7 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

17 att, 95 yds, 1 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jordan WilkinsRB

14 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

A.J. GreenWR

6/8 for 92 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Jack DoyleTE

7/10 for 60 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · -11.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 30	3	7	0:59	Interception
2	IND	CIN 7	2	3	0:51	Interception
3	CIN	CIN 7	10	69	4:50	Turnover on downs
4	IND	IND 25	15	63	6:57	Turnover on downs
5	CIN	CIN 25	4	30	1:19	Fumble
6	IND	IND 42	8	68	3:02	Touchdown
7	CIN	CIN 25	5	17	2:38	Punt
8	IND	IND 22	12	68	6:23	Turnover on downs
9	CIN	CIN 25	7	39	1:17	Touchdown
10	IND	IND 24	9	28	1:42	Turnover on downs
11	CIN	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
12	IND	IND 25	5	-8	1:28	Punt
13	CIN	CIN 33	4	-3	2:02	Punt
14	IND	IND 40	10	60	3:17	Touchdown
15	CIN	CIN 25	10	75	4:04	Touchdown
16	IND	IND 25	10	23	3:57	Fumble
17	CIN	CIN 45	8	30	4:05	Touchdown
18	IND	IND 25	5	8	1:14	Punt
19	CIN	CIN 21	11	66	5:56	Turnover on downs
20	IND	IND 25	14	58	3:33	Defensive touchdown
21	IND	IND 21	2	9	0:24	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	21/28	243	2	1	2	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	17	95	5.6	1	3.9
Andy Dalton	2	8	4.0	0	0.5
Giovani Bernard	1	-2	-2.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Green	6	8	92	1	29%	2.1
Joe Mixon	5	7	54	0	25%	-5.2
Tyler Eifert	3	3	44	0	11%	1.8
Tyler Boyd	3	5	26	0	18%	0.1
Giovani Bernard	1	1	11	0	4%	0.6
Tyler Kroft	1	1	9	0	4%	0.5
C.J. Uzomah	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.1
John Ross	1	2	3	1	7%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Clayton Fejedelem	9	1	0	0
Nick Vigil	10	0	0	0
Jessie Bates	7	0	0	0
Ryan Glasgow	3	2	0	0
Preston Brown	4	0	1	1
William Jackson	4	0	0	0
Hardy Nickerson	4	0	0	0
Darqueze Dennard	2	1	0	1
Dre Kirkpatrick	3	0	0	3
Tony McRae	1	1	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	39/53	319	2	1	2	7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jordan Wilkins	14	40	2.9	-6.0
Nyheim Miller-Hines	5	19	3.8	0.2
Christine Michael	2	9	4.5	-0.6
Andrew Luck	1	7	7.0	1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jack Doyle	7	10	60	0	19%	-11.7
Ryan Grant	8	9	59	0	17%	1.4
Eric Ebron	4	5	51	1	10%	3.3
T.Y. Hilton	5	11	46	1	21%	1.5
Nyheim Miller-Hines	7	9	33	0	17%	0.6
Jordan Wilkins	3	3	21	0	6%	1.4
Zach Pascal	1	1	18	0	2%	2.1
Chester Rogers	3	3	18	0	6%	1.9
Erik Swoope	1	1	13	0	2%	1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaquille Leonard	6	3	0.0	0	0
Clayton Geathers	7	0	0.0	0	0
Nate Hairston	6	0	0.0	0	0
Malik Hooker	4	0	0.0	0	0
Matthias Farley	2	1	0.0	0	0
Anthony Walker	2	0	0.0	0	0
Skai Moore	2	0	0.0	0	0
Margus Hunt	2	0	2.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	1	1	0.0	1	1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -1
Closing total: 47.5
CIN moneyline: -105
IND moneyline: -105

Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 57 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: CIN 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Marvin Lewis vs Frank Reich