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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
Cincinnati Bengals 34 at Indianapolis Colts 23. Final.
Bengals -1 ✓O 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 1
Cincinnati Bengals 34, Colts 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:40, 3rd and 15, on Jack Doyle — 35.1 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:40 · 3rd and 15
Jack Doyle
Bengals
(:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 84-J.Doyle to CIN 15 for 15 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). FUMBLES (42-C.Fejedelem), RECOVERED by CIN-42-C.Fejedelem at CIN 17. 42-C.Fejedelem for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.
Cincinnati Bengals 34–23. Biggest swing: Q4 0:40, Bengals +35.1% win probability on one snap.
35.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.MooreColtsQ1 14:11(14:11) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left intended for 28-J.Mixon INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore II at CIN 39. 23-K.Moore II to CIN 7 for 32 yards (14-A.Dalton).
20.7pts
Andy DaltonBengalsQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 18-A.Green. PENALTY on IND-31-Q.Wilson, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at IND 39 - No Play.
12.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Colts at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Colts at 2 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 11 of 17 on third down, against Bengals at 4 of 8 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Bengals170 of 180 plays carry both curves
(:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 84-J.Doyle to CIN 15 for 15 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). FUMBLES (42-C.Fejedelem), RECOVERED by CIN-42-C.Fejedelem at CIN 17. 42-C.Fejedelem for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −35.1 for ColtsExpected points −9.43 for ColtsThe model had Bengals 4 points higher than the market did.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:40CIN +35% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 84-J.Doyle to CIN 15 for 15 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). FUMBLES (42-C.Fejedelem), RECOVERED by CIN-42-C.Fejedelem at CIN 17. 42-C.Fejedelem for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:11CIN +21% win prob(14:11) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left intended for 28-J.Mixon INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore II at CIN 39. 23-K.Moore II to CIN 7 for 32 yards (14-A.Dalton).
2nd · 2:00IND +13% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 18-A.Green. PENALTY on IND-31-Q.Wilson, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at IND 39 - No Play.
4th · 11:10IND +11% win prob(11:10) 74-J.Fisher and 94-S.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:18IND +11% win prob(4:18) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 18-A.Green for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:06IND +11% win prob(:06) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joe Mixon's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 11:10 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:25Randy Bullock·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–0
1st1:27Adam Vinatieri·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–3
2nd12:09Eric Ebron·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck+73–10
2nd3:06Adam Vinatieri·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–13
2nd1:48John Ross·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+710–13
2nd0:06Adam Vinatieri·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+310–16
3rd8:17T.Y. Hilton·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck+710–23
3rd4:18A.J. Green·38-yd TD catch38-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+717–23
4th11:10Joe Mixon·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+724–23
4th4:01Randy Bullock·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+327–23
Bengals ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Bengals: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.09Colts: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Bengals: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.01Colts: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Bengals: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.31Colts: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 50 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Colts’s 77 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Colts 5.
NoteColts outgained Bengals 380-330 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +3.3 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Colts9.4%
right on their number · −3.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was IND's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0% against a season mean of 21.7% — and IND swings 23.1 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Luck pass−31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 84-J.Doyle to CIN 15 for 15 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). FUMBLES (42-C.Fejedelem), RECOVERED by CIN-42-C.Fejedelem at CIN 17. 42-C.Fejedelem for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:40 · Colts · 3rd & 15 at CIN 30 · gained 13 · -9.43 EP · −30.8% win probability
168 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 75 yards from the CIN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
47%
Yards
710
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1276%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.2261%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.1970%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.4267%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.2060%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bengals 7 to the Bengals 4
Bengals3Colts0
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 7 to the Colts 22
Bengals3Colts3
Field goal16 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Bengals 1
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 42
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Bengals3Colts9
Bengals3Colts10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 49 to the Bengals 26
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 32
Bengals3Colts13
Field goal13 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Bengals 20
Bengals9Colts13
Bengals10Colts13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Colts 3
Bengals10Colts16
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Bengals 33
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays
Bengals10Colts22
Bengals10Colts23
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 40 to the Bengals 5
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Bengals16Colts23
Bengals17Colts23
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Colts 38
No good11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Bengals 29
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Bengals23Colts23
Bengals24Colts23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Colts 1
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Bengals27Colts23
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Colts 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bengals33Colts23
Touchdown14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Bengals 25
Bengals34Colts23
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -1
Closing total
47.5
Bengals moneyline
-105
Colts moneyline
-105
Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 57 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Peter Morelli
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Colts 7 days
Coaches
Marvin Lewis vs Frank Reich
4th · 1:09CIN +11% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 21-N.Hines to CIN 30 for -5 yards (59-N.Vigil).
4th · 13:55IND +10% win prob(13:55) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Eifert. PENALTY on IND-26-C.Geathers, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at IND 47 - No Play.
Bengalscategory by categoryColts
Bengals3
Colts0
