2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · Bank of America Stadium

Dallas Cowboys

Carolina PanthersWinner

CAR -2.5 ✓U 42.5 ✓Panthers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Carolina Panthers 16–8. Biggest swing: Q1 6:42, DAL +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:42DAL — CAR CAR ball · 3rd & 2CAR 68%

(6:42) 65-A.Silatolu reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DAL 5 for no gain (93-D.Ross). FUMBLES (93-D.Ross), RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at DAL 5. 90-D.Lawrence to DAL 10 for 5 yards (12-D.Moore).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:42DAL +10% win prob(6:42) 65-A.Silatolu reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DAL 5 for no gain (93-D.Ross). FUMBLES (93-D.Ross), RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at DAL 5. 90-D.Lawrence to DAL 10 for 5 yards (12-D.Moore).
Q1 · 8:56CAR +7% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end to DAL 13 for 29 yards (38-J.Heath).
Q1 · 12:26CAR +6% win prob(12:26) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to CAR 32, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 18-D.Byrd.
Q1 · 11:03CAR +5% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Funchess [90-D.Lawrence]. PENALTY on DAL-90-D.Lawrence, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 32 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Panthers
Offensive plays	57	58
Total yards	235	299 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	-0.03 (edge)
Success rate	35%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	-0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	-0.02
Third downs	2/11	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	3 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

19/29, 170 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-9.0 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

17/26, 161 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.7 expected points added · -0.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

15 att, 69 yds, 1 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

13 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Cole BeasleyWR

7/8 for 73 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

6/9 for 45 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	5	3	2:40	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 32	9	58	5:44	Fumble
3	DAL	DAL 10	8	40	4:24	Punt
4	CAR	CAR 18	8	45	3:11	Punt
5	DAL	DAL 14	4	0	1:43	Punt
6	CAR	DAL 35	8	35	3:28	Touchdown
7	DAL	DAL 25	5	-1	1:43	Punt
8	CAR	CAR 30	4	8	1:25	Punt
9	DAL	DAL 17	6	19	2:58	Punt
10	CAR	CAR 38	11	63	2:41	Turnover on downs
11	DAL	DAL 25	2	0	0:03	End of half
12	CAR	CAR 25	7	12	3:14	Punt
13	DAL	DAL 8	8	46	3:30	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 15	4	5	1:40	Punt
15	DAL	DAL 45	8	36	3:59	Turnover on downs
16	CAR	CAR 37	7	58	3:25	Touchdown
17	DAL	DAL 25	12	67	5:21	Touchdown
18	CAR	CAR 25	7	15	3:59	Punt
19	DAL	DAL 21	8	31	2:39	Turnover on downs
20	CAR	CAR 48	4	0	0:22	Punt
21	DAL	DAL 20	3	-6	0:24	Fumble
22	CAR	DAL 14	3	0	1:27	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 67 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	19/29	170	0	0	6	-9.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	15	69	4.6	1	0.2
Dak Prescott	5	19	3.8	0	2.0
Rod Smith	1	5	5.0	0	-0.5
Tavon Austin	1	1	1.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Cole Beasley	7	8	73	28%	5.3
Deonte Thompson	3	5	27	17%	-0.9
Allen Hurns	1	3	20	10%	0.8
Geoff Swaim	3	4	18	14%	-0.6
Ezekiel Elliott	3	4	17	14%	-1.7
Michael Gallup	1	1	9	3%	0.7
Terrance Williams	1	2	6	7%	-0.5
Rod Smith	0	1	0	3%	-1.0
Blake Jarwin	0	1	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kavon Frazier	4	4	0.0	1
Demarcus Lawrence	5	1	1.0	0
Byron Jones	5	0	0.0	0
Jeff Heath	4	1	0.0	0
Jaylon Smith	3	1	1.0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	4	0	0.0	0
Sean Lee	1	3	0.0	1
Anthony Brown	2	1	0.0	1
Taco Charlton	1	2	0.0	1
Leighton Vander Esch	2	1	0.0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	17/26	161	0	0	3	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cam Newton	13	58	4.5	1	-1.8
Christian McCaffrey	10	50	5.0	0	-4.4
C.J. Anderson	7	35	5.0	0	1.5
D.J. Moore	1	3	3.0	0	-0.5
Alex Armah	1	1	1.0	1	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	6	9	45	36%	1.5
Devin Funchess	3	5	41	20%	0.6
Greg Olsen	2	2	33	8%	3.1
Jarius Wright	3	5	23	20%	-1.1
Torrey Smith	1	2	15	8%	0.9
Ian Thomas	2	2	4	8%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Luke Kuechly	11	2	0.0
Shaq Thompson	5	4	1.0
Donte Jackson	4	1	0.0
Mike Adams	2	3	0.0
Mario Addison	1	2	1.5
Da'Norris Searcy	2	1	0.0
Wes Horton	1	2	1.5
Kawann Short	2	0	2.0
Captain Munnerlyn	2	0	0.0
Kyle Love	1	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -2.5
Closing total: 42.5
DAL moneyline: +134
CAR moneyline: -149

Panthers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 24 — under by 18.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: DAL 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Jason Garrett vs Ron Rivera