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2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
CowboysDallas8
BY 8final margin
PanthersCarolina16
Dallas Cowboys 8 at Carolina Panthers 16. Final.
Panthers -2.5 ✓U 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 1
Carolina Panthers 16, Cowboys 8 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 6:42, 3rd and 2, on Christian McCaffrey — 9.7 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:42 · 3rd and 2
Christian McCaffrey
Cowboys
(6:42) 65-A.Silatolu reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DAL 5 for no gain (93-D.Ross). FUMBLES (93-D.Ross), RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at DAL 5. 90-D.Lawrence to DAL 10 for 5 yards (12-D.Moore).
Panthers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Carolina Panthers 16–8. Biggest swing: Q1 6:42, Cowboys +9.7% win probability on one snap.
9.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetCowboysQ1 12:26(12:26) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to CAR 32, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 18-D.Byrd.
6.0pts
Cam NewtonPanthersQ1 8:56(8:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end to DAL 13 for 29 yards (38-J.Heath).
6.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Panthers at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Panthers won this one — 4 of 11 on third down, against Cowboys at 2 of 11 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 3 chunk plays.
(6:42) 65-A.Silatolu reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DAL 5 for no gain (93-D.Ross). FUMBLES (93-D.Ross), RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at DAL 5. 90-D.Lawrence to DAL 10 for 5 yards (12-D.Moore).
Swing −9.7 for PanthersExpected points −4.86 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 4 points higher than the market did.play 19
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:42DAL +10% win prob(6:42) 65-A.Silatolu reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DAL 5 for no gain (93-D.Ross). FUMBLES (93-D.Ross), RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at DAL 5. 90-D.Lawrence to DAL 10 for 5 yards (12-D.Moore).
1st · 8:56CAR +7% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end to DAL 13 for 29 yards (38-J.Heath).
1st · 12:26CAR +6% win prob(12:26) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to CAR 32, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 18-D.Byrd.
1st · 11:03CAR +5% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Funchess [90-D.Lawrence]. PENALTY on DAL-90-D.Lawrence, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 32 - No Play.
4th · 1:39DAL +5% win prob(1:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 14 for -9 yards (97-M.Addison). FUMBLES (97-M.Addison) [97-M.Addison], RECOVERED by CAR-41-C.Munnerlyn at DAL 14. 41-C.Munnerlyn to DAL 14 for no gain (87-G.Swaim).
1st · 14:26DAL +5% win prob(14:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 10-T.Austin to DAL 33 for 9 yards (97-M.Addison). PENALTY on DAL-77-T.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 24 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cam Newton's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 8:54 left in the 2nd put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd8:54Cam Newton·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd0:07Graham Gano·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+30–10
4th14:16Alex Armah·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+60–16
Panthers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Cowboys: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.03Panthers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Cowboys: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.05Panthers: −0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Cowboys: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 57 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Panthers’s 58 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 1, Panthers 5.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Panthers23.1%
leaned — got home · +11.8 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.87× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.1%, 11.8 points above their season mean of 11.3% and 1.9 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4
A.Silatolu reported−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(6:42) 65-A.Silatolu reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DAL 5 for no gain (93-D.Ross). FUMBLES (93-D.Ross), RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at DAL 5. 90-D.Lawrence to DAL 10 for 5 yards (12-D.Moore).
Q1 6:42 · Panthers · 3rd & 2 at DAL 5 · gained nothing · -4.86 EP · −13.1% win probability
159 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 65 yards from the DAL 35 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
38%
Yards
527
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0964%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.1461%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0545%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.5925%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.8550%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3650%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.1540%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt7 plays
Offense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Cowboys 5
Punt10 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 45
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Panthers 41
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Cowboys0Panthers6
Cowboys0Panthers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Cowboys 4
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 26
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 33
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Cowboys 36
Cowboys0Panthers10
Field goal14 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Cowboys 9
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Cowboys 47
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 8 to the Panthers 46
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 15 to the Panthers 20
No good9 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Panthers 29
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 37 to the Cowboys 15
4th quarter51 plays
Cowboys0Panthers16
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 1
Cowboys6Panthers16
Cowboys8Panthers16
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Panthers 4
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 36
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Panthers 48
Punt6 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 23
The period ended6 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Cowboyscategory by categoryPanthers
Cowboys0
Panthers6
