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Houston Texans 20 at New England Patriots 27. Final.
Patriots -6 ✓U 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 1
New England Patriots 27, Texans 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 4:12, 3rd and 6, on Tyrann Mathieu — 10.3 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:12 · 3rd and 6
Tyrann Mathieu
Texans
(4:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 28-J.White INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu (97-A.Blackson) at NE 17. 32-T.Mathieu to NE 17 for no gain.
Patriots closed -6 and covered, winning by 7.
New England Patriots 27–20. Biggest swing: Q1 4:12, Texans +10.3% win probability on one snap.
10.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPatriotsQ1 13:04(13:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 20, RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at HOU 19. 54-D.Hightower to HOU 19 for no gain (76-S.Henderson).
8.2pts
Rob GronkowskiPatriotsQ1 11:58(11:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 76th career Brady-Gronkowski TD connection, 5th all-time (2nd all-time QB-TE).
9.9pts
What separated them
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Patriots won this one — 4 of 14 on third down, against Texans at 2 of 11 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.07 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.12 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.25 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Texans187 of 197 plays carry both curves
(4:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 28-J.White INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu (97-A.Blackson) at NE 17. 32-T.Mathieu to NE 17 for no gain.
Swing −10.3 for PatriotsExpected points −3.95 for PatriotsThe model had Texans 14 points higher than the market did.play 34
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:12HOU +10% win prob(4:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 28-J.White INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu (97-A.Blackson) at NE 17. 32-T.Mathieu to NE 17 for no gain.
1st · 11:58NE +10% win prob(11:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 76th career Brady-Gronkowski TD connection, 5th all-time (2nd all-time QB-TE).
1st · 13:04HOU +8% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 20, RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at HOU 19. 54-D.Hightower to HOU 19 for no gain (76-S.Henderson).
2nd · 5:39HOU +5% win prob(5:39) (No Huddle) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle intended for 17-V.Smith INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore [93-L.Guy] at NE -9. Touchback.
1st · 7:44NE +4% win prob(7:44) 26-L.Miller left end pushed ob at HOU 40 for 31 yards (23-P.Chung).
2nd · 14:37NE +4% win prob(14:37) 12-T.Brady up the middle to HOU 23 for 2 yards (92-B.Dunn).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rob Gronkowski's 21-yard touchdown catch with 11:58 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:58Rob Gronkowski·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+70–7
1st2:37Ka'imi Fairbairn·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+33–7
2nd12:45James White·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+73–14
2nd9:03Ka'imi Fairbairn·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+36–14
2nd0:19Phillip Dorsett·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+76–21
3rd6:05Stephen Gostkowski·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Cardona+36–24
Patriots ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Texans: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.01Patriots: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Texans: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.07Patriots: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Texans: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.12Patriots: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 70 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Patriots’s 72 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Texans 5, Patriots 5.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Patriots26.2%
leaned — got home · +10.9 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.2%, 10.9 points above their season mean of 15.3% and 1.2 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson FUMBLES−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 20, RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at HOU 19. 54-D.Hightower to HOU 19 for no gain (76-S.Henderson).
Q1 13:04 · Texans · 1st & 10 at HOU 22 · gained nothing · -5.50 EP · −15.4% win probability
185 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 198 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 78 yards from the NE 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
39%
Yards
714
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR37-0.1351%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.2556%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR31-0.4058%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.3468%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR13+0.1631%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.3367%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 33
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Texans0Patriots6
Texans0Patriots7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Texans 16
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Texans 31
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Texans 49
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 9 to the Patriots 43
Intercepted4 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Patriots 15
Texans3Patriots7
Field goal4 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Texans 34
2nd quarter56 plays
Texans3Patriots13
Texans3Patriots14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 12
Texans6Patriots14
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Patriots 15
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Patriots 30
Intercepted4 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Patriots 42
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 26
Punt11 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Texans 48
Texans6Patriots20
Texans6Patriots21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Texans 4
The period ended3 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 37
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Patriots 25
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Patriots 17
Texans6Patriots24
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Texans 20
Texans12Patriots24
Texans13Patriots24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Patriots 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 40
4th quarter53 plays
Texans13Patriots27
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Texans 10
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Patriots 49
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 12 to the Patriots 20
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Texans 36
Texans19Patriots27
Texans20Patriots27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Patriots 1
Punt11 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 45
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 1 to the Texans 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
