2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · Gillette Stadium

Houston Texans

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -6 ✓U 49.5 ✓Patriots closed -6 and covered, winning by 7.

New England Patriots 27–20. Biggest swing: Q1 4:12, HOU +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:12HOU — NE NE ball · 3rd & 6NE 83%

(4:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 28-J.White INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu (97-A.Blackson) at NE 17. 32-T.Mathieu to NE 17 for no gain.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:12HOU +10% win prob(4:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 28-J.White INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu (97-A.Blackson) at NE 17. 32-T.Mathieu to NE 17 for no gain.
Q1 · 11:58NE +10% win prob(11:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 76th career Brady-Gronkowski TD connection, 5th all-time (2nd all-time QB-TE).
Q1 · 13:04HOU +8% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 20, RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at HOU 19. 54-D.Hightower to HOU 19 for no gain (76-S.Henderson).
Q2 · 5:39HOU +5% win prob(5:39) (No Huddle) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle intended for 17-V.Smith INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore [93-L.Guy] at NE -9. Touchback.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Patriots
Offensive plays	70	72
Total yards	326	389 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.17	-0.01 (edge)
Success rate	41% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	60%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	0.07 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	-0.12 (edge)
Third downs	2/11	4/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

26/39, 277 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

8.2 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

17/34, 176 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-9.5 expected points added · -9.7% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Lamar MillerRB

20 att, 98 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rex BurkheadRB

18 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Rob GronkowskiTE

7/8 for 123 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

DeAndre HopkinsWR

8/11 for 78 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	5	8	1:56	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 22	1	0	0:06	Fumble
3	NE	HOU 19	4	24	1:08	Touchdown
4	HOU	HOU 27	5	4	1:29	Punt
5	NE	NE 33	6	18	2:30	Punt
6	HOU	HOU 9	7	48	2:12	Punt
7	NE	NE 6	3	9	1:33	Interception
8	HOU	NE 17	4	-7	1:33	Turnover on downs
9	NE	NE 25	12	61	4:55	Touchdown
10	HOU	HOU 37	10	44	3:37	Turnover on downs
11	NE	NE 18	8	12	1:52	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 34	4	24	1:39	Interception
13	NE	NE 20	4	6	1:06	Punt
14	HOU	HOU 34	7	29	2:56	Punt
15	NE	NE 22	9	78	1:14	Touchdown
16	HOU	HOU 30	2	0	0:14	End of half
17	HOU	HOU 28	5	9	2:06	Punt
18	NE	NE 21	2	29	0:45	Fumble
19	HOU	HOU 45	7	38	2:17	Turnover on downs
20	NE	NE 17	10	58	3:50	Turnover on downs
21	HOU	HOU 32	12	73	4:10	Touchdown
22	NE	NE 25	14	58	7:04	Turnover on downs
23	HOU	HOU 31	7	20	2:39	Punt
24	NE	NE 12	4	8	1:52	Punt
25	HOU	HOU 34	4	2	0:45	Punt
26	HOU	NE 16	7	15	2:24	Touchdown
27	NE	NE 25	7	20	1:25	Punt
28	HOU	HOU 1	5	27	0:43	End of game

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 78 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	17/34	176	1	1	3	-9.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Miller	20	98	4.9	0	-1.1
Deshaun Watson	8	40	5.0	0	-2.2
Alfred Blue	5	36	7.2	1	2.4
DeAndre Hopkins	1	-7	-7.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	8	11	78	0	32%	2.0
Bruce Ellington	4	8	37	1	24%	2.3
Jordan Thomas	1	2	27	0	6%	1.7
Tyler Ervin	1	1	12	0	3%	-0.1
Lamar Miller	1	2	11	0	6%	-0.1
Jordan Akins	2	2	11	0	6%	-0.4
Sammie Coates	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Vyncint Smith	0	2	0	0	6%	-3.8
Ryan Griffin	0	5	0	0	15%	-6.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kareem Jackson	8	0	0.0	0	0
Benardrick McKinney	5	2	0.0	0	0
Zach Cunningham	3	4	0.0	0	1
Johnathan Joseph	6	1	0.0	0	1
Dylan Cole	5	0	0.0	0	1
Tyrann Mathieu	3	2	0.0	1	1
Aaron Colvin	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kevin Johnson	1	3	0.0	0	0
D.J. Reader	4	0	2.0	0	0
Brandon Dunn	2	1	0.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	26/39	277	3	1	2	8.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rex Burkhead	18	64	3.6	-3.1
Jeremy Hill	4	25	6.3	0.0
James White	5	18	3.6	-2.5
Cordarrelle Patterson	3	13	4.3	-0.0
Tom Brady	1	2	2.0	1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rob Gronkowski	7	8	123	1	21%	6.6
Phillip Dorsett	7	7	66	1	18%	6.2
James White	4	9	38	1	23%	-3.7
James Develin	4	4	22	0	10%	0.2
Chris Hogan	1	5	11	0	13%	-3.0
Jeremy Hill	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	6	0	3%	0.7
Rex Burkhead	1	3	5	0	8%	-1.3
Riley McCarron	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Stephon Gilmore	7	1	0.0	1	2
Ja'Whaun Bentley	4	3	0.0	0	0
Devin McCourty	2	4	0.0	0	0
Trey Flowers	2	3	1.5	0	0
Elandon Roberts	1	4	0.0	0	0
Adam Butler	1	4	0.0	0	0
Lawrence Guy	1	4	0.0	0	0
Eric Rowe	3	1	0.0	0	1
Jonathan Jones	2	2	0.0	0	2
Patrick Chung	3	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -6
Closing total: 49.5
HOU moneyline: +214
NE moneyline: -240

Patriots closed -6 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 47 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: HOU 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Bill O'Brien vs Bill Belichick