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Jacksonville Jaguars 20 at New York Giants 15. Final.
Jaguars -2.5 ✓U 43 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 1
Jacksonville Jaguars 20, Giants 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 11:35, 2nd and 7, on Myles Jack — 19.2 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:35 · 2nd and 7
Myles Jack
Jaguars
(11:35) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right intended for 26-S.Barkley INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Jack (95-A.Jones) at NYG 32. 44-M.Jack for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Jaguars closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Jacksonville Jaguars 20–15. Biggest swing: Q4 11:35, Jaguars +19.2% win probability on one snap.
19.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Saquon BarkleyGiantsQ4 10:51(10:51) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.3pts
Eli ManningJaguarsQ4 1:55(1:55) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 87-S.Shepard (25-D.Hayden).
15.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Jaguars won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — -0.05 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.24 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.12 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Jaguars170 of 181 plays carry both curves
(11:35) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right intended for 26-S.Barkley INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Jack (95-A.Jones) at NYG 32. 44-M.Jack for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −19.2 for GiantsExpected points −7.78 for GiantsThe model had Giants 7 points higher than the market did.play 139
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 11:35JAX +19% win prob(11:35) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right intended for 26-S.Barkley INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Jack (95-A.Jones) at NYG 32. 44-M.Jack for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:55JAX +16% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 87-S.Shepard (25-D.Hayden).
4th · 10:51NYG +13% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:21NYG +10% win prob(3:21) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 13-O.Beckham to JAX 40 for 19 yards (42-B.Church).
4th · 2:00JAX +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 88-E.Engram (42-B.Church).
3rd · 6:28JAX +9% win prob(6:28) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to JAX 37 for 1 yard (39-T.Gipson; 55-L.McCray).
3rd · 7:54
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Lambo's 39-yard field goal with 7:22 left in the 2nd put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:17Josh Lambo·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap C.Tinker+33–0
1st0:26Aldrick Rosas·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+33–3
2nd7:22Josh Lambo·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap C.TinkerLead never changed again+36–3
4th10:51Saquon Barkley·68-yd TD run68-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+620–15
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryGiants
Jaguars5–2Giants
307Total yards324
5.1Yards per play5.1
40%Success rate30%
31%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays4
17First downs12
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Jaguars ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Jaguars: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.24Giants: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Jaguars: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.31Giants: −0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Jaguars: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.12Giants: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 60 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Giants’s 63 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 2, Giants 3.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Giants5.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.7%, 7.3 points below their season mean of 13.0% and 1.4 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Manning pass−23% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:35) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right intended for 26-S.Barkley INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Jack (95-A.Jones) at NYG 32. 44-M.Jack for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 11:35 · Giants · 2nd & 7 at NYG 30 · gained nothing · -7.78 EP · −22.9% win probability
168 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 75 yards from the NYG 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
32%
Yards
629
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.3065%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.0279%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0846%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.0758%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.1343%
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.310%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Jaguars2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Jaguars3Giants0
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Giants 21
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 17
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Jaguars 46
Jaguars3Giants3
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Jaguars 4
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Jaguars6Giants3
Field goal15 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Giants 10
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 26
Jaguars12Giants3
Jaguars13Giants3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 43 to the Giants 1
Jaguars13Giants6
Field goal16 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Jaguars 11
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter47 plays
Jaguars13Giants9
Field goal15 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Jaguars 26
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 31
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Jaguars 46 to the Jaguars 38
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 37 to the Giants 43
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Giants 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 8 to the Giants 44
The period ended4 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Giants 20
4th quarter54 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 41
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Jaguars19Giants9
Touchdown2 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 30
Jaguars20Giants9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Jaguars20Giants15
Touchdown4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 32
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 29
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Giants 35
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Jaguars 36
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 36 to the Jaguars 40
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jaguars -2.5
Closing total
43
Jaguars moneyline
-141
Giants moneyline
+127
Jaguars closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 43; the game landed 35 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 59°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the north-east; 0.13 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Jaguars 7 days · Giants 7 days
Coaches
Doug Marrone vs Pat Shurmur
JAX +7% win prob
(7:54) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short right to 84-K.Cole. PENALTY on JAX-74-C.Robinson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 31.
1st · 14:19NYG +7% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 84-K.Cole to 50 for 31 yards (20-J.Jenkins).
