2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · StubHub Center

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Los Angeles Chargers

LAC -3.5 upsetO 48 ✓Chargers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Kansas City Chiefs 38–28. Biggest swing: Q1 13:24, KC +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:24KC — LAC LAC ball · 4th & 1LAC 59%

(13:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 57 yards to KC 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:24KC +19% win prob(13:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 57 yards to KC 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:21KC +13% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 16-Ty.Williams INTERCEPTED by 38-R.Parker at KC 14. 38-R.Parker to LAC 43 for 43 yards (76-R.Okung). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 16-Ty.Williams INTERCEPTED by 38-R.Parker at KC 14. 38-R.Parker to KC 14 for no gain (16-Ty.Williams).
Q1 · 6:50LAC +9% win prob(6:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-B.Mebane].
Q1 · 6:39LAC +8% win prob(6:39) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 30-A.Ekeler to KC 45 for 30 yards (38-R.Parker). PENALTY on KC-38-R.Parker, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at KC 45.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Chargers
Offensive plays	55	77
Total yards	362	545 (edge)
Yards per play	6.6	7.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.21	0.24 (edge)
Success rate	44%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	53%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.47 (edge)	0.30
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.12 (edge)
Third downs	4/10 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	33 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Chargers outgained Chiefs 545–362 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

34/51, 424 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

16.1 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

15/27, 256 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

12.8 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Melvin GordonRB

15 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

16 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

7/8 for 169 yds, 2 TD

32% of team targets · 14.1 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

8/11 for 108 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 9.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	5	9	1:57	Defensive touchdown
2	LAC	LAC 25	9	43	3:43	Turnover on downs
3	KC	KC 25	7	75	2:41	Touchdown
4	LAC	LAC 25	6	24	1:36	Punt
5	KC	KC 12	4	4	1:01	Punt
6	LAC	LAC 40	6	39	3:41	Turnover on downs
7	KC	KC 25	6	30	1:23	Punt
8	LAC	LAC 4	13	91	6:11	Touchdown
9	KC	KC 25	12	47	5:47	Turnover on downs
10	LAC	LAC 25	6	6	1:09	Punt
11	KC	KC 10	4	47	0:51	End of half
12	KC	KC 25	13	69	5:35	Touchdown
13	LAC	LAC 9	9	60	5:09	Interception
14	KC	KC 14	7	86	3:28	Touchdown
15	LAC	LAC 9	11	93	3:44	Touchdown
16	KC	KC 23	5	4	1:42	Punt
17	KC	LAC 2	4	2	0:40	Touchdown
18	LAC	LAC 25	12	92	4:41	Touchdown
19	KC	KC 25	5	0	1:56	Punt
20	LAC	LAC 14	9	56	1:59	Turnover on downs
21	KC	KC 38	4	-2	0:30	Punt
22	LAC	LAC 20	4	32	0:36	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 93 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	15/27	256	4	0	1	12.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kareem Hunt	16	49	3.1	-3.1
Spencer Ware	3	32	10.7	0.2
Patrick Mahomes	5	21	4.2	2.5
Tyreek Hill	2	4	2.0	-0.4
Damien Williams	1	0	0.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	7	8	169	2	32%	14.1
Anthony Sherman	1	1	36	1	4%	3.5
Sammy Watkins	3	5	21	0	20%	0.4
Chris Conley	1	1	15	0	4%	1.4
Spencer Ware	1	1	8	0	4%	0.4
Travis Kelce	1	6	6	0	24%	-2.8
De'Anthony Thomas	1	2	1	1	8%	0.1
Kareem Hunt	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Anthony Hitchens	6	8	0.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	4	4	0.0	0	1
Eric Murray	3	5	0.0	0	0
Ron Parker	5	2	0.0	1	2
Reggie Ragland	1	5	0.0	0	0
Terrance Smith	2	3	0.0	0	0
Kendall Fuller	2	3	0.0	0	0
Xavier Williams	1	3	0.0	0	0
Dee Ford	3	0	1.0	0	0
Chris Jones	2	0	0.0	0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	34/51	424	3	1	1	16.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Melvin Gordon	15	64	4.3	-1.6
Austin Ekeler	5	39	7.8	2.7
Travis Benjamin	1	19	19.0	1.1
Derek Watt	1	1	1.0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	8	11	108	1	22%	9.4
Melvin Gordon	9	13	102	0	26%	1.4
Austin Ekeler	5	5	87	1	10%	6.0
Mike Williams	5	6	81	0	12%	5.2
Virgil Green	2	2	21	0	4%	1.7
Antonio Gates	2	3	16	0	6%	2.0
Tyrell Williams	2	5	8	1	10%	-4.8
Travis Benjamin	1	5	1	0	10%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyzir White	3	3	0.0	0
Kyle Emanuel	4	1	0.0	0
Desmond King	4	0	0.0	1
Isaac Rochell	2	2	0.0	0
Casey Hayward	4	0	0.0	0
Jahleel Addae	2	2	0.0	0
Denzel Perryman	1	2	0.0	0
Derwin James	2	1	1.0	2
Adrian Phillips	1	1	0.0	0
Trevor Williams	2	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -3.5
Closing total: 48
KC moneyline: +166
LAC moneyline: -185

Chargers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 66 — over by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: StubHub Center
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 84°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: KC 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Anthony Lynn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.