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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 7:08 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Kansas City Chiefs 38 at Los Angeles Chargers 28. Final.
Chargers -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 1
Kansas City Chiefs 38, Chargers 28 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:24, 4th and 1 — 19.5 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
O 48 ✓
Chargers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Kansas City Chiefs 38–28. Biggest swing: Q1 13:24, Chiefs +19.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:24 · 4th and 1
Unnamed on the sheet
Chiefs
(13:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 57 yards to KC 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tyreek HillChiefsQ1 6:50(6:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-B.Mebane].
9.0pts
Ron ParkerChiefsQ3 4:21(4:21) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 16-Ty.Williams INTERCEPTED by 38-R.Parker at KC 14. 38-R.Parker to LAC 43 for 43 yards (76-R.Okung). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 16-Ty.Williams INTERCEPTED by 38-R.Parker at KC 14. 38-R.Parker to KC 14 for no gain (16-Ty.Williams).
12.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chiefs at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 12 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 8 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.08 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Chiefs173 of 183 plays carry both curves
(13:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 57 yards to KC 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −19.5 for ChargersExpected points −7.05 for ChargersThe model had Chiefs 8 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:24KC +19% win prob(13:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 57 yards to KC 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:21KC +13% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 16-Ty.Williams INTERCEPTED by 38-R.Parker at KC 14. 38-R.Parker to LAC 43 for 43 yards (76-R.Okung). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 16-Ty.Williams INTERCEPTED by 38-R.Parker at KC 14. 38-R.Parker to KC 14 for no gain (16-Ty.Williams).
1st · 6:50LAC +9% win prob(6:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-B.Mebane].
1st · 6:39LAC +8% win prob(6:39) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 30-A.Ekeler to KC 45 for 30 yards (38-R.Parker). PENALTY on KC-38-R.Parker, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at KC 45.
2nd · 1:06LAC +7% win prob(1:06) 8-D.Kaser punts 63 yards to KC 16, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 20 for 4 yards. PENALTY on KC-19-M.Kemp, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.
4th · 10:35
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyreek Hill's 91-yard return touchdown with 13:24 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:24Tyreek Hill·91-yd return TD91-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kickLead never changed again+77–0
1st9:24Caleb Sturgis·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder D.Kaser · snap M.Windt+37–3
1st6:50Tyreek Hill·58-yd TD catch58-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+714–3
1st0:25Caleb Sturgis·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder D.Kaser · snap M.Windt+314–6
2nd7:54Austin Ekeler·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers · two-point no good+614–12
2nd2:04Harrison Butker·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+317–12
3rd9:29De'Anthony Thomas·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+724–12
3rd0:55Anthony Sherman·36-yd TD catch36-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+731–12
4th12:09Keenan Allen·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers · two-point good+831–20
4th9:47Tyreek Hill·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+738–20
4th5:08Tyrell Williams·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers · two-point good+838–28
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryChargers
Chiefs2–6Chargers
362Total yards545
6.6Yards per play7.1
44%Success rate55%
40%Third-down rate27%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays12
17First downs33
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Chiefs: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.24Chargers: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.47Chiefs: +0.47 expected points added per play
+0.30Chargers: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Chiefs: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.12Chargers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 55 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Chargers’s 77 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Chargers 3.
NoteChargers outgained Chiefs 545-362 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LAC's sack or hit rate, 24.1%, sat 11.2 points above their season number of 12.9% — they got home by 2.0 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Chargers24.1%
off script — got home · +11.2 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+2.01× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.1%, 11.2 points above their season mean of 12.9% and 2.0 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
53 dressed · 8 never used
71Mitchell SchwartzT · Every snap100%56 snaps
76Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%56 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Kaser punts−19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 57 yards to KC 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:24 · Chargers · 4th & 1 at LAC 34 · gained nothing · -7.05 EP · −18.7% win probability
171 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 91 yards from the LAC 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
47%
Yards
907
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58+0.2476%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1061%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.5936%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.2160%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.2967%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.4417%
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Chiefs6Chargers0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 34
Chiefs7Chargers0
Chiefs7Chargers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 27
Chiefs13Chargers3
Chiefs14Chargers3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 42
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 30
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 12 to the Chiefs 16
Chiefs14Chargers6
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Chiefs 21
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chiefs14Chargers12
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chargers 4 to the Chiefs 13
Chiefs17Chargers12
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 28
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 30
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Chargers 38
3rd quarter35 plays
Chiefs23Chargers12
Chiefs24Chargers12
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 1
Intercepted10 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Chiefs 26
Chiefs30Chargers12
Chiefs31Chargers12
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Chargers 36
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Chargers 29
4th quarter57 plays
Chiefs31Chargers18
Chiefs31Chargers20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Chiefs 20
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Chiefs 27
Chiefs37Chargers20
Chiefs38Chargers20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 2 to the Chargers 1
Chiefs38Chargers26
Chiefs38Chargers28
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 4
Punt5 plays
No good9 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Chiefs 28
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 38 to the Chiefs 42
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -3.5
Closing total
48
Chiefs moneyline
+166
Chargers moneyline
-185
Chargers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 66 — over by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
StubHub Center
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 88°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Chargers 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Anthony Lynn
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
LAC +7% win prob
(10:35) 2-D.Colquitt punts 59 yards to LAC 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 89-J.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 6. 89-J.Jones to LAC 6 for no gain (13-D.Thomas). FUMBLES (13-D.Thomas), RECOVERED by KC-41-J.Winchester at LAC 2.
3rd · 2:54LAC +6% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill to KC 45 for 34 yards (20-D.King).
1st · 5:31KC +6% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at KC 36 for -6 yards (55-D.Ford). LAC-72-J.Barksdale was injured during the play.
Chiefscategory by categoryChargers
Chiefs6
Chargers0
