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2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · StubHub Center
38
28
Kansas City Chiefs 38–28. Biggest swing: Q1 13:24, KC +19% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(13:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 57 yards to KC 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Chiefs | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 55 | 77 |
| Total yards | 362 | 545 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 6.6 | 7.1 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.21 | 0.24 (edge) |
| Success rate | 44% | 55% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 53% | 70% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.47 (edge) | 0.30 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.08 | 0.12 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/10 (edge) | 3/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 | 12 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 | 33 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 | 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Chargers outgained Chiefs 545–362 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
34/51, 424 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
16.1 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected
Passing · KC
15/27, 256 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
12.8 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | LAC 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:57 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 2 | LAC | LAC 25 | 9 | 43 | 3:43 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | KC | KC 25 | 7 | 75 | 2:41 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | LAC | LAC 25 | 6 | 24 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 5 | KC | KC 12 | 4 | 4 | 1:01 | Punt | |
| 6 | LAC | LAC 40 | 6 | 39 | 3:41 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | KC | KC 25 | 6 | 30 | 1:23 | Punt | |
| 8 | LAC | LAC 4 | 13 | 91 | 6:11 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | KC | KC 25 | 12 | 47 | 5:47 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | LAC | LAC 25 | 6 | 6 | 1:09 | Punt | |
| 11 | KC | KC 10 | 4 | 47 | 0:51 | End of half | |
| 12 | KC | KC 25 | 13 | 69 | 5:35 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | LAC | LAC 9 | 9 | 60 | 5:09 | Interception | |
| 14 | KC | KC 14 | 7 | 86 | 3:28 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | LAC | LAC 9 | 11 | 93 | 3:44 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | KC | KC 23 | 5 | 4 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 17 | KC | LAC 2 | 4 | 2 | 0:40 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | LAC | LAC 25 | 12 | 92 | 4:41 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | KC | KC 25 | 5 | 0 | 1:56 | Punt | |
| 20 | LAC | LAC 14 | 9 | 56 | 1:59 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | KC | KC 38 | 4 | -2 | 0:30 | Punt | |
| 22 | LAC | LAC 20 | 4 | 32 | 0:36 | End of game |
0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 93 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 15/27 | 256 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 0 | -3.1 |
| Spencer Ware | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 8 | 169 | 2 | 32% | 14.1 |
| Anthony Sherman | 1 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 4% | 3.5 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hitchens | 6 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Murray | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron Parker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 34/51 | 424 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 66 — over by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 0.4 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4% | 1.4 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | 0.4 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 24% | -2.8 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8% | 0.1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.4 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| Reggie Ragland | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrance Smith | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Ford | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.6 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 | 2.7 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 | 1.1 |
| Derek Watt | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 11 | 108 | 1 | 22% | 9.4 |
| Melvin Gordon | 9 | 13 | 102 | 0 | 26% | 1.4 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 5 | 87 | 1 | 10% | 6.0 |
| Mike Williams | 5 | 6 | 81 | 0 | 12% | 5.2 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4% | 1.7 |
| Antonio Gates | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 6% | 2.0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 10% | -4.8 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10% | -2.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzir White | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Emanuel | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Desmond King | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaac Rochell | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Hayward | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahleel Addae | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Adrian Phillips | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Williams | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
