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Los Angeles Rams 33, Raiders 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 4:57, 2nd and 10, on John Johnson — 12.5 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:57 · 2nd and 10
John Johnson
Raiders
(4:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA -2. Touchback.
Rams closed -6 and covered, winning by 20.
Los Angeles Rams 33–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:57, Raiders +12.5% win probability on one snap.
12.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.LynchRamsQ1 15:00(15:00) 24-M.Lynch left guard to LV 28 for 3 yards (90-M.Brockers).
9.7pts
Jared GoffRamsQ2 4:26(4:26) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 12-B.Cooks (45-D.Rodgers-Cromartie). PENALTY on LV-45-D.Rodgers-Cromartie, Defensive Pass Interference, 50 yards, enforced at LA 31 - No Play.
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 24.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 100 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Rams170 of 182 plays carry both curves
(4:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA -2. Touchback.
Swing +12.5 for RaidersExpected points +4.38 for RaidersThe model had Rams 36 points higher than the market did.play 64
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:57LA +12% win prob(4:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA -2. Touchback.
2nd · 4:26OAK +10% win prob(4:26) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 12-B.Cooks (45-D.Rodgers-Cromartie). PENALTY on LV-45-D.Rodgers-Cromartie, Defensive Pass Interference, 50 yards, enforced at LA 31 - No Play.
1st · 15:00OAK +10% win prob(15:00) 24-M.Lynch left guard to LV 28 for 3 yards (90-M.Brockers).
2nd · 1:05OAK +9% win prob(1:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-J.Cook to LA 39 for 14 yards (21-A.Talib).
3rd · 0:03OAK +9% win prob(:03) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:24OAK +9% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 12-B.Cooks. PENALTY on LV-22-R.Melvin, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at LA 19 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cooper Kupp's 8-yard touchdown catch with 0:03 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
4 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
4 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.0 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 26.5 points below their season mean of 26.5% and 1.3 times their own 21.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:26) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 12-B.Cooks (45-D.Rodgers-Cromartie). PENALTY on LV-45-D.Rodgers-Cromartie, Defensive Pass Interference, 50 yards, enforced at LA 31 - No Play.
Q2 4:26 · Rams · 1st & 10 at LA 31 · gained nothing · +3.08 EP · +13.5% win probability
168 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 79 yards from the LV 15 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
760
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58+0.1557%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.3080%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1257%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Rams0Raiders6
Rams0Raiders7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Rams 7
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 33
Punt5 plays
Rams6Raiders7
Rams7Raiders7
Touchdown5 plays, from midfield to the Raiders 19
The period ended14 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Rams 49
2nd quarter52 plays
Rams7Raiders10
Field goal6 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Rams 6
No good9 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Raiders 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Rams 21
Rams10Raiders10
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Raiders 2
Rams10Raiders13
Field goal16 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Rams 30
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Rams13Raiders13
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Raiders 9
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 37
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Rams 37
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 8 to the Raiders 16
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Rams19Raiders13
Rams20Raiders13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Rams 42 to the Raiders 8
4th quarter53 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 35
Rams23Raiders13
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Raiders 37
Intercepted5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Rams 40
Rams26Raiders13
Field goal15 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Raiders 2
Rams32Raiders13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 47
Rams33Raiders13
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Rams 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
