2018 Week 1 · Mon, Sep 10, 2018 · Ford Field

New York JetsWinner

Detroit Lions

DET -7 upsetO 44 ✓DomeLions closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Jets 48–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 8:16, NYJ +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 8:16NYJ — DET DET ball · 3rd & 1NYJ 60%

(8:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 25-T.Riddick INTERCEPTED by 58-D.Lee [96-H.Anderson] at DET 36. 58-D.Lee for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 8:16NYJ +22% win prob(8:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 25-T.Riddick INTERCEPTED by 58-D.Lee [96-H.Anderson] at DET 36. 58-D.Lee for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 9:44DET +14% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 81-Q.Enunwa for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:53NYJ +12% win prob(14:53) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 29-B.Powell INTERCEPTED by 28-Q.Diggs at NYJ 37. 28-Q.Diggs for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 14:04DET +12% win prob(14:04) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay to NYJ 24 for 26 yards (22-T.Johnson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Lions
Offensive plays	54	66
Total yards	356 (edge)	340
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	-0.41
Success rate	46% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	43%	80%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.32 (edge)	-0.45
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.27
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	17	17
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	5

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.41.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

27/46, 286 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT

-15.7 expected points added · -11.7% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

16/21, 198 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

7.3 expected points added · +10.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Isaiah CrowellRB

10 att, 102 yds, 2 TD

5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Bilal PowellRB

12 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Kenny GolladayWR

7/12 for 114 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Golden TateWR

7/15 for 79 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · -2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 25	2	0	0:20	Defensive touchdown
2	NYJ	NYJ 13	12	37	6:04	Punt
3	DET	DET 10	4	-2	1:42	Punt
4	NYJ	DET 32	6	32	2:34	Touchdown
5	DET	DET 25	4	0	0:15	Interception
6	NYJ	DET 49	8	32	4:08	Turnover on downs
7	DET	DET 25	7	47	2:59	Interception
8	DET	NYJ 33	4	1	2:34	Turnover on downs
9	NYJ	NYJ 45	7	15	4:04	Punt
10	DET	DET 6	6	14	2:07	Punt
11	NYJ	DET 49	4	54	1:22	Touchdown
12	DET	DET 25	11	60	1:40	Turnover on downs
13	NYJ	NYJ 25	2	0	0:11	End of half
14	DET	DET 25	6	80	1:50	Touchdown
15	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	70	3:34	Touchdown
16	DET	DET 25	4	9	1:29	Defensive touchdown
17	DET	DET 25	5	1	1:07	Defensive touchdown
18	DET	DET 25	3	0	0:13	Interception
19	NYJ	DET 18	4	4	1:32	Turnover on downs
20	DET	DET 25	8	44	3:29	Turnover on downs
21	NYJ	NYJ 34	3	66	0:52	Touchdown
22	DET	DET 25	14	66	5:07	Turnover on downs
23	NYJ	NYJ 9	4	8	2:32	Punt
24	DET	DET 45	6	20	1:44	Interception
25	NYJ	DET 40	12	38	5:54	Turnover on downs
26	DET	DET 13	1	0	0:37	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 80 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	16/21	198	2	1	2	7.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Isaiah Crowell	10	102	10.2	2	5.5
Bilal Powell	12	60	5.0	0	-1.0
Trenton Cannon	6	15	2.5	0	-3.2
Andre Roberts	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5
Sam Darnold	6	-1	-0.2	0	-4.2
Robbie Chosen	1	-9	-9.0	0	-2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Quincy Enunwa	6	9	63	1	45%	5.1
Terrelle Pryor	3	3	49	0	15%	6.5
Robbie Chosen	1	1	41	1	5%	4.0
Neal Sterling	3	3	27	0	15%	2.6
Eric Tomlinson	1	1	7	0	5%	0.3
Trenton Cannon	1	1	6	0	5%	2.2
Bilal Powell	1	2	5	0	10%	-8.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Buster Skrine	7	0	0	1
Darron Lee	6	1	2	3
Jamal Adams	5	1	1	3
Doug Middleton	4	1	0	1
Avery Williamson	2	1	0	0
Steve McLendon	1	2	0	0
Trumaine Johnson	3	0	1	1
Frankie Luvu	3	0	0	1
Brandon Copeland	1	1	0	0
Jordan Jenkins	1	1	0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	27/46	286	1	4	0	-15.7
Matt Cassel	2/6	14	0	1	0	-8.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Theo Riddick	4	20	5.0	-0.4
Kerryon Johnson	5	17	3.4	-0.2
Matthew Stafford	1	6	6.0	0.1
Matt Cassel	1	-1	-1.0	0.0
LeGarrette Blount	4	-3	-0.8	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Golladay	7	12	114	0	23%	-1.2
Golden Tate	7	15	79	1	29%	-2.4
Marvin Jones	4	8	54	0	15%	-5.0
Kerryon Johnson	3	3	20	0	6%	-0.0
Theo Riddick	5	7	15	0	13%	-8.4
Levine Toilolo	1	1	7	0	2%	0.5
T.J. Jones	1	3	6	0	6%	-0.8
Hakeem Valles	1	2	5	0	4%	-0.5
Luke Willson	0	1	0	0	2%	-6.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devon Kennard	4	2	1.0	0	0
Tavon Wilson	4	2	0.0	0	0
Nevin Lawson	4	0	0.0	0	0
Quandre Diggs	4	0	0.0	1	1
Jarrad Davis	3	1	0.0	0	0
Da'Shawn Hand	3	1	0.0	0	0
Ricky Jean Francois	3	1	0.0	0	0
Ezekiel Ansah	3	1	1.0	0	0
Kerry Hyder	3	0	0.0	0	0
Christian Jones	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -7
Closing total: 44
NYJ moneyline: +297
DET moneyline: -339

Lions closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 65 — over by 21.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: NYJ 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Matt Patricia