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New York Jets 48, Lions 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 8:16, 3rd and 1, on Darron Lee — 21.6 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:16 · 3rd and 1
Darron Lee
Jets
(8:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 25-T.Riddick INTERCEPTED by 58-D.Lee [96-H.Anderson] at DET 36. 58-D.Lee for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Lions closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 48–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 8:16, Jets +21.6% win probability on one snap.
21.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Quandre DiggsLionsQ1 14:53(14:53) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 29-B.Powell INTERCEPTED by 28-Q.Diggs at NYJ 37. 28-Q.Diggs for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.8pts
Quincy EnunwaJetsQ3 9:44(9:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 81-Q.Enunwa for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets won this one — 1 giveaway, against Lions at 5 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jets won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.41 expected points per snap.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.45 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jets won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Lions at 3 of 13 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Terrelle PryorJetsWR3 of 3 for 49+6.52 expected points on 3 touches
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Jets168 of 176 plays carry both curves
(8:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 25-T.Riddick INTERCEPTED by 58-D.Lee [96-H.Anderson] at DET 36. 58-D.Lee for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −21.6 for LionsExpected points −8.88 for LionsThe model had Jets 10 points higher than the market did.play 109
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 8:16NYJ +22% win prob(8:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 25-T.Riddick INTERCEPTED by 58-D.Lee [96-H.Anderson] at DET 36. 58-D.Lee for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:44DET +14% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 81-Q.Enunwa for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:53NYJ +12% win prob(14:53) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 29-B.Powell INTERCEPTED by 28-Q.Diggs at NYJ 37. 28-Q.Diggs for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:04DET +12% win prob(14:04) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay to NYJ 24 for 26 yards (22-T.Johnson).
2nd · 2:00DET +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:30NYJ +8% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 25-T.Riddick right tackle to NYJ 3 for 3 yards (33-J.Adams).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Quincy Enunwa's 21-yard touchdown catch with 9:44 left in the 3rd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Jets ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Jets: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.41Lions: −0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.32Jets: +0.32 expected points added per play
−0.45Lions: −0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Jets: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.27Lions: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 54 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Lions’s 66 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Jets 7, Lions 3.
NoteJets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's early-down pass rate, 78.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 41.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points.
DET's pass rate over expected, +8.7 pts, sat 11.0 points above their season number of −2.2 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.1 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.0 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Lions8.7%
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.7 pts, 11.0 points above their season mean of -2.2 pts and 2.1 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass−19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(8:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 25-T.Riddick INTERCEPTED by 58-D.Lee [96-H.Anderson] at DET 36. 58-D.Lee for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 8:16 · Lions · 3rd & 1 at DET 34 · gained nothing · -8.88 EP · −18.8% win probability
166 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 80 yards from the DET 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.26
Success rate
39%
Yards
688
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.5580%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.4250%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.3239%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR14+0.2136%
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR11-0.18100%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.7 seconds
Jets0Lions6
Touchdown2 plays
Jets0Lions7
Punt12 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Lions 42
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Lions 22
Jets6Lions7
Jets7Lions7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Lions 6
Intercepted4 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Lions 21
2nd quarter49 plays
Jets10Lions7
Field goal1 play
Intercepted7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Jets 28
No good5 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Lions 31
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 6 to the Lions 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Jets16Lions7
Jets17Lions7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Lions 41
Jets17Lions10
Field goal13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Jets 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter51 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Jets17Lions16
Jets17Lions17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Jets 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Jets23Lions17
Jets24Lions17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Lions 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Jets30Lions17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 34
Jets31Lions17
Jets37Lions17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 26
Jets38Lions17
Intercepted3 plays
Jets41Lions17
Field goal4 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Lions 14
No good9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Jets 26
Jets47Lions17
Jets48Lions17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Jets 38
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 38
4th quarter36 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jets 49 to the Jets 9
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 17
Intercepted6 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Jets 35
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Lions 2
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
