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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 7:08 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Steelers216 of 231 plays carry both curves
(1:28) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to PIT 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 26 for 10 yards (82-O.Charles; 37-D.Rice).
Swing +70.4 for BrownsExpected points −0.64 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 222
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 1:28CLE +70% win prob(1:28) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to PIT 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 26 for 10 yards (82-O.Charles; 37-D.Rice).
Overtime · 0:09CLE +48% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Hunter (53-J.Schobert).
Overtime · 5:37CLE +42% win prob(5:37) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to CLE 19, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.
Overtime · 4:35CLE +29% win prob(4:35) 4-B.Colquitt punts 29 yards to PIT 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
Overtime · 0:48CLE +28% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 33 for -5 yards (55-G.Avery). FUMBLES (55-G.Avery) [55-G.Avery], RECOVERED by CLE-53-J.Schobert at PIT 40. 53-J.Schobert pushed ob at PIT 12 for 28 yards (53-M.Pouncey). PENALTY on CLE-95-M.Garrett, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 14.
4th · 0:23PIT +26% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right intended for 12-J.Gordon INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Sutton at PIT 8. 20-C.Sutton to PIT 8 for no gain (12-J.Gordon).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Neither side got further than 14 clear, and 6 scores later it was still level.
Steelers ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Steelers: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.16Browns: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Steelers: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.23Browns: −0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Steelers: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.04Browns: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 79 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Browns’s 84 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Browns 4.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Browns10.9%
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -1.9 pts, 10.5 points below their season mean of 8.5 pts and 1.6 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
53 dressed · 9 never used
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%84 snaps
73Ramon FosterG · Every snap100%84 snaps
77Marcus GilbertOT · Every snap100%84 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%84 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%84 snaps
84Antonio BrownWR · Every snap99%83 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Full-time98%82 snaps
30James ConnerRB · Full-time92%77 snaps
81Jesse JamesTE · Full-time82%69 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation75%63 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
B.Colquitt punts+70% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:28) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to PIT 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 26 for 10 yards (82-O.Charles; 37-D.Rice).
OT 1:28 · Browns · 4th & 10 at CLE 32 · gained nothing · -0.64 EP · +70.4% win probability
214 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 231 plays across 38 drives, personnel groupings on 231 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 38 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 88 yards from the PIT 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
231 of 231 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
231
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
35%
Yards
799
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.0573%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.2073%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.2238%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR15-0.370%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.5917%
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR6-0.3783%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
231 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
231 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 33
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Steelers 48
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 43
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 14 to the Browns 25
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from midfield to the Browns 18
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Browns 28
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 12 to the Steelers 20
2nd quarter42 plays
Steelers6Browns0
Steelers7Browns0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 43 to the Browns 4
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Steelers 32
Intercepted1 play
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Steelers 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Steelers 9 to the Browns 37
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
Steelers7Browns6
Steelers7Browns7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 14 to the Steelers 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Steelers13Browns7
Steelers14Browns7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Browns 2
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Browns 21
Steelers20Browns7
Steelers21Browns7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Browns 39 to the Browns 22
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Steelers 47
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Steelers 32
4th quarter61 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Browns 34
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 12 to the Browns 36
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Steelers 47 to the Steelers 18
Fumble lost1 play
Steelers21Browns13
Steelers21Browns14
Touchdown2 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSix
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Steelers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Steelers 36
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 5 to the Steelers 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Steelers21Browns20
Steelers21Browns21
Touchdown3 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Steelers 17
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Steelers 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Steelers 43
The period ended2 plays
Overtime40 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Steelers 38
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Browns 26
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Browns 24
Punt4 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 38
No good3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.1 seconds
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Steelerscategory by categoryBrowns
Steelers6
Browns0
