2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland Browns

PIT -3.5 upsetO 41 ✓Steelers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

A 21–21 tie. Biggest swing: OT 1:28, CLE +70% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 1:28PIT — CLE CLE ball · 4th & 10PIT 88%

(1:28) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to PIT 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 26 for 10 yards (82-O.Charles; 37-D.Rice).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 1:28CLE +70% win prob(1:28) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to PIT 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 26 for 10 yards (82-O.Charles; 37-D.Rice).
OT · 0:09CLE +48% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Hunter (53-J.Schobert).
OT · 5:37CLE +42% win prob(5:37) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to CLE 19, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.
OT · 4:35CLE +29% win prob(4:35) 4-B.Colquitt punts 29 yards to PIT 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Browns
Offensive plays	79	84
Total yards	473 (edge)	327
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	-0.15 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	42% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	58%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.23
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	-0.04 (edge)
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	5/18
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	9
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	4 (edge)	7
Turnovers	6	1 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

23/41, 335 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-6.7 expected points added · -10.0% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Tyrod TaylorQB

15/40, 197 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-18.5 expected points added · -20.1% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

31 att, 135 yds, 2 TD

-8.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Tyrod TaylorQB

8 att, 77 yds, 1 TD

7.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

5/8 for 119 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Jarvis LandryWR

7/15 for 106 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · -4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	5	8	1:31	Punt
2	CLE	CLE 36	7	26	3:21	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 20	6	23	2:29	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 14	5	-4	1:15	Punt
5	PIT	50	4	27	1:02	Interception
6	CLE	CLE 10	7	21	3:27	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 12	11	84	5:39	Touchdown
8	CLE	CLE 25	9	38	3:46	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 12	1	0	0:11	Interception
10	CLE	CLE 28	8	31	4:46	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 9	7	54	1:51	Interception
12	CLE	PIT 45	2	-14	0:42	End of half
13	CLE	CLE 14	12	66	4:55	Touchdown
14	PIT	PIT 26	5	94	1:41	Touchdown
15	CLE	CLE 8	7	6	2:16	Punt
16	PIT	CLE 39	3	39	0:45	Touchdown
17	CLE	CLE 11	8	42	1:56	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 14	13	52	6:16	Punt
19	CLE	CLE 12	4	-1	1:21	Punt
20	PIT	PIT 14	5	5	2:08	Punt
21	CLE	PIT 47	7	24	0:58	Turnover on downs
22	PIT	PIT 18	1	-1	0:08	Fumble
23	CLE	PIT 1	2	1	0:04	Touchdown
24	PIT	PIT 28	3	9	0:51	Fumble
25	CLE	PIT 37	4	-2	1:27	Punt
26	PIT	PIT 5	7	14	3:04	Punt
27	CLE	CLE 45	3	55	0:12	Touchdown
28	PIT	PIT 31	5	1	0:29	Punt
29	CLE	CLE 29	5	23	1:13	Interception
30	PIT	PIT 8	1	0	0:16	Turnover on downs
31	CLE	CLE 25	5	9	1:17	Punt
32	PIT	PIT 17	6	21	3:14	Punt
33	CLE	CLE 19	4	7	0:58	Punt
34	PIT	PIT 45	8	31	2:47	Turnover on downs
35	CLE	CLE 32	4	0	0:27	Punt
36	PIT	PIT 26	3	12	0:41	Fumble
37	CLE	PIT 24	3	-1	0:27	Turnover on downs
38	PIT	PIT 33	1	0	0:09	End of game

0 of 38 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 94 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	23/41	335	1	3	4	-6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	31	135	4.4	2	-8.3
Ben Roethlisberger	3	16	5.3	0	3.0
Ryan Switzer	1	8	8.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster	5	8	119	0	20%	6.0
Antonio Brown	9	16	93	1	39%	-3.3
Jesse James	3	5	60	0	12%	0.1
James Conner	5	6	57	0	15%	2.6
Justin Hunter	1	5	6	0	12%	-0.4
Ryan Switzer	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Vince Williams	4	8	0.0	0
T.J. Watt	7	3	3.0	0
Jon Bostic	4	5	1.0	0
Cameron Heyward	5	2	1.0	0
Bud Dupree	4	1	1.0	2
Sean Davis	4	1	0.0	2
Stephon Tuitt	4	0	0.0	0
Javon Hargrave	3	1	1.0	0
Tyler Matakevich	3	0	0.0	0
Mike Hilton	3	0	0.0	2

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	15/40	197	1	1	7	-18.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	8	77	9.6	1	7.5
Carlos Hyde	22	62	2.8	1	-2.6
Nick Chubb	3	21	7.0	0	0.7
Duke Johnson	5	17	3.4	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jarvis Landry	7	15	106	0	39%	-4.3
Rashard Higgins	1	3	38	0	8%	2.0
Josh Gordon	1	3	17	1	8%	1.0
David Njoku	3	7	13	0	18%	-5.1
Darren Fells	1	1	12	0	3%	1.0
Duke Johnson	1	6	8	0	16%	-3.9
Carlos Hyde	1	2	3	0	5%	-0.6
Antonio Callaway	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Joe Schobert	2	6	0.0	0	1
Larry Ogunjobi	3	4	1.0	0	0
Myles Garrett	5	1	2.0	0	1
Jabrill Peppers	3	3	0.0	0	0
Denzel Ward	2	4	0.0	2	3
Jamie Collins	4	2	0.0	0	1
Terrance Mitchell	6	0	0.0	0	1
Damarious Randall	4	1	0.0	1	2
Briean Boddy-Calhoun	4	1	0.0	0	0
Christian Kirksey	3	2	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -3.5
Closing total: 41
PIT moneyline: -173
CLE moneyline: +156

Steelers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 42 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 58°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: PIT 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Hue Jackson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.