For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Final
SeahawksSeattle24
BY 3final margin
BroncosDenver27
Seattle Seahawks 24 at Denver Broncos 27. Final.
Broncos -3 pushO 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 1
Denver Broncos 27, Seahawks 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 14:55, 2nd and 10, on Tyler Lockett — 22.2 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:55 · 2nd and 10
Tyler Lockett
Seahawks
(14:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Broncos closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Denver Broncos 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 14:55, Seahawks +22.2% win probability on one snap.
22.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Earl ThomasSeahawksQ1 9:21(9:21) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right intended for 88-De.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 29-E.Thomas at DEN 40. 29-E.Thomas pushed ob at DEN 15 for 25 yards (30-P.Lindsay).
14.7pts
Jake ButtBroncosQ4 11:42(11:42) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 80-J.Butt to SEA 9 for 22 yards (49-SM.Griffin). PENALTY on SEA-95-D.Jordan, Roughing the Passer, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 9. Penalty on SEA-37-T.Flowers, Defensive Holding, declined.
14.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — -0.13 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.60 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 6 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos won this one — 4 of 12 on third down, against Seahawks at 2 of 12 on third down.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Seahawks172 of 181 plays carry both curves
(14:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −22.2 for BroncosExpected points −5.07 for BroncosModel and market agree here.play 137
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 14:55DEN +22% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:21SEA +15% win prob(9:21) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right intended for 88-De.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 29-E.Thomas at DEN 40. 29-E.Thomas pushed ob at DEN 15 for 25 yards (30-P.Lindsay).
4th · 11:42DEN +15% win prob(11:42) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 80-J.Butt to SEA 9 for 22 yards (49-SM.Griffin). PENALTY on SEA-95-D.Jordan, Roughing the Passer, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 9. Penalty on SEA-37-T.Flowers, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 10:40DEN +14% win prob(10:40) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 10-E.Sanders for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:16SEA +13% win prob(9:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 30 for -13 yards (58-V.Miller).
3rd · 6:09DEN +12% win prob(6:09) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 15-B.Marshall for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Demaryius Thomas's 4-yard touchdown catch with 11:18 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:10Will Dissly·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+77–0
1st6:18Phillip Lindsay·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum+77–7
2nd14:03Sebastian Janikowski·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+310–7
2nd10:40Emmanuel Sanders·43-yd TD catch43-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum+710–14
2nd5:29Brandon McManus·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder M.King · snap C.Kreiter+310–17
3rd6:09Brandon Marshall·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+717–17
3rd2:06Brandon McManus·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder M.King · snap C.Kreiter+317–20
4th14:55Tyler Lockett·51-yd TD catch51-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+724–20
4th11:18Demaryius Thomas·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case KeenumLead never changed again+724–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryBroncos
Seahawks1–7Broncos
306Total yards470
5.6Yards per play6.5
38%Success rate47%
17%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays11
12First downs23
6Sacks taken1
3Turnovers3
The read
Broncos ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Seahawks: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.11Broncos: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Seahawks: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.10Broncos: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.60Seahawks: −0.60 expected points added per play
−0.13Broncos: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 55 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Broncos’s 72 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Broncos 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's pass rate over expected, +3.8 pts, sat 15.3 points above their season number of −11.6 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.6 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Broncos25.0%
leaned — got home · +10.6 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 3.8 pts, 15.3 points above their season mean of -11.6 pts and 2.6 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass+24% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(14:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 14:55 · Seahawks · 2nd & 10 at SEA 49 · gained 51 · +5.07 EP · +24.0% win probability
170 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 78 yards from the SEA 5 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
44%
Yards
776
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0174%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1873%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.2637%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.5178%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0225%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 39
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 20
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Broncos 24
Seahawks6Broncos0
Seahawks7Broncos0
Touchdown2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Seahawks7Broncos6
Seahawks7Broncos7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Seahawks 29
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 39
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 2 to the Broncos 43
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
The period ended3 plays, from the Seahawks 5 to the Seahawks 29
2nd quarter45 plays
Seahawks10Broncos7
Field goal6 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Seahawks10Broncos13
Seahawks10Broncos14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Seahawks 43
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 26
Seahawks10Broncos17
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Seahawks 32
No good9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Broncos 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Seahawks 26
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Seahawks 41
3rd quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 25
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 6 to the Broncos 35
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Seahawks 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Intercepted1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Seahawks16Broncos17
Seahawks17Broncos17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Broncos 20
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 37
Intercepted3 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 23
Seahawks17Broncos20
Field goal4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 35
4th quarter46 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Seahawks23Broncos20
Seahawks24Broncos20
Touchdown3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Seahawks24Broncos26
Seahawks24Broncos27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Seahawks 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 43
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Broncos 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 27
Punt11 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Seahawks 39
Intercepted5 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Seahawks 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -3
Closing total
42.5
Seahawks moneyline
+157
Broncos moneyline
-175
Broncos closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 51 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 84°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the north; mainly clear.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Vance Joseph
3rd · 8:15SEA +12% win prob(8:15) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right intended for 10-E.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 30-B.McDougald [98-S.Stephen] at SEA 20. 30-B.McDougald to DEN 41 for 39 yards (61-M.Paradis).
1st · 0:13DEN +11% win prob(:13) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 88-W.Dissly pushed ob at DEN 5 for 66 yards (54-B.Marshall).
