2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High

Seattle Seahawks

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -3 pushO 42.5 ✓Broncos closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Denver Broncos 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 14:55, DEN +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 14:55SEA — DEN SEA ball · 2nd & 10DEN 62%

(14:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 14:55DEN +22% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 9:21SEA +15% win prob(9:21) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right intended for 88-De.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 29-E.Thomas at DEN 40. 29-E.Thomas pushed ob at DEN 15 for 25 yards (30-P.Lindsay).
Q4 · 11:42DEN +15% win prob(11:42) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 80-J.Butt to SEA 9 for 22 yards (49-SM.Griffin). PENALTY on SEA-95-D.Jordan, Roughing the Passer, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 9. Penalty on SEA-37-T.Flowers, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q2 · 10:40DEN +14% win prob(10:40) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 10-E.Sanders for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Broncos
Offensive plays	55	72
Total yards	306	470 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07 (edge)	-0.11
Success rate	38%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.60	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	2/12	4/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	3

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

25/39, 329 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT

-3.8 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

19/33, 298 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

4.1 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Phillip LindsayRB

15 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Royce FreemanRB

15 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Emmanuel SandersWR

10/11 for 135 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Will DisslyTE

3/5 for 105 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	9	24	2:49	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 16	4	4	1:42	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 10	3	14	1:19	Interception
4	SEA	DEN 15	2	15	0:06	Touchdown
5	DEN	DEN 25	9	75	2:54	Touchdown
6	SEA	SEA 32	5	7	1:40	Punt
7	DEN	DEN 2	8	41	3:45	Punt
8	SEA	SEA 5	6	88	1:46	Turnover on downs
9	DEN	DEN 25	8	75	3:30	Touchdown
10	SEA	SEA 25	5	16	2:31	Punt
11	DEN	DEN 37	6	30	2:33	Turnover on downs
12	SEA	SEA 25	8	26	3:34	Turnover on downs
13	DEN	DEN 36	3	38	0:42	Interception
14	SEA	SEA 18	3	1	1:09	End of half
15	SEA	SEA 16	5	9	1:30	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 6	8	24	4:35	Punt
17	SEA	SEA 26	2	14	0:40	Fumble
18	DEN	SEA 40	1	0	0:17	Interception
19	SEA	DEN 41	6	41	1:56	Touchdown
20	DEN	DEN 25	7	7	2:21	Punt
21	SEA	SEA 20	3	3	0:46	Interception
22	DEN	SEA 35	4	0	0:54	Turnover on downs
23	SEA	SEA 25	9	70	2:15	Touchdown
24	DEN	DEN 25	9	80	3:35	Touchdown
25	SEA	SEA 25	6	5	2:40	Punt
26	DEN	DEN 13	6	20	3:27	Punt
27	SEA	SEA 22	4	-4	1:36	Punt
28	DEN	DEN 19	7	42	2:27	Punt
29	SEA	SEA 12	4	11	1:01	Interception

0 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 88 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	19/33	298	3	2	6	4.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chris Carson	7	51	7.3	-5.4
Rashaad Penny	7	8	1.1	-3.5
Russell Wilson	2	5	2.5	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Will Dissly	3	5	105	1	15%	7.5
Tyler Lockett	3	4	59	1	12%	5.2
Brandon Marshall	3	6	46	1	18%	2.8
Rashaad Penny	4	5	35	0	15%	1.0
Chris Carson	3	5	28	0	15%	-0.8
Nick Vannett	1	2	11	0	6%	-1.9
Tre Madden	1	1	7	0	3%	0.4
Jaron Brown	1	3	7	0	9%	0.3
David Moore	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.0
Doug Baldwin	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Tre Flowers	7	1	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	6	0	0	0
Jarran Reed	5	0	0	0
Austin Calitro	5	0	0	0
Earl Thomas	3	2	1	2
Bobby Wagner	4	1	0	1
Tedric Thompson	3	1	0	0
Bradley McDougald	4	0	2	2
Quinton Jefferson	2	1	0	0
Shaquem Griffin	3	0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	25/39	329	3	3	1	-3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Phillip Lindsay	15	71	4.7	-0.6
Royce Freeman	15	71	4.7	-2.4
Devontae Booker	2	4	2.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Emmanuel Sanders	10	11	135	1	28%	3.7
Demaryius Thomas	6	10	63	1	26%	-1.5
Courtland Sutton	2	5	45	0	13%	-1.1
Phillip Lindsay	2	3	31	1	8%	1.0
Jake Butt	2	4	29	0	10%	-0.6
Jeff Heuerman	1	1	15	0	3%	0.8
Devontae Booker	2	2	11	0	5%	-0.6
Matt LaCosse	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.5
Tim Patrick	0	2	0	0	5%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Von Miller	6	1	3.0	0	0
Brandon Marshall	3	3	0.0	0	0
Todd Davis	6	0	0.0	0	0
Justin Simmons	3	1	0.0	1	1
Bradley Chubb	1	2	0.5	0	0
Darian Stewart	0	3	0.5	0	0
Phillip Lindsay	2	0	0.0	0	0
Shaquil Barrett	2	0	1.0	0	0
Adam Jones	2	0	0.0	1	1
Will Parks	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -3
Closing total: 42.5
SEA moneyline: +157
DEN moneyline: -175

Broncos closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 51 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 84°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: SEA 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Vance Joseph