2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

Minnesota VikingsWinner

MIN -6 ✓U 46.5 ✓DomeVikings closed -6 and covered, winning by 8.

Minnesota Vikings 24–16. Biggest swing: Q2 2:30, SF +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:30SF — MIN SF ball · 2nd & 1MIN 71%

(2:30) 46-A.Morris up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (98-L.Joseph). FUMBLES (98-L.Joseph), RECOVERED by MIN-22-H.Smith at MIN 2. 22-H.Smith to MIN 2 for no gain (15-P.Garcon).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:30SF +11% win prob(2:30) 46-A.Morris up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (98-L.Joseph). FUMBLES (98-L.Joseph), RECOVERED by MIN-22-H.Smith at MIN 2. 22-H.Smith to MIN 2 for no gain (15-P.Garcon).
Q3 · 10:48SF +9% win prob(10:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Hughes at SF 28. 21-M.Hughes for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 11:43MIN +7% win prob(11:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen to SF 34 for 14 yards (24-K.Williams).
Q2 · 10:33SF +6% win prob(10:33) 33-D.Cook up the middle to SF 37 for 15 yards (48-F.Warner). FUMBLES (48-F.Warner), RECOVERED by SF-25-R.Sherman at SF 29. 25-R.Sherman to SF 29 for no gain (83-T.Conklin).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Vikings
Offensive plays	61	71
Total yards	327	343 (edge)
Yards per play	5.4 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	-0.36	-0.19 (edge)
Success rate	36% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	62%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	0.00 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.40 (edge)	-0.49
Third downs	5/13	7/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	16	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.36.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

15/33, 261 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-13.5 expected points added · -17.6% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

20/36, 244 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

0.2 expected points added · -12.7% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Matt BreidaRB

11 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Latavius MurrayRB

11 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

6/12 for 102 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

5/9 for 90 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	11	37	5:32	Punt
2	SF	SF 4	6	13	2:11	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 30	7	40	3:21	Turnover on downs
4	SF	SF 25	5	5	2:45	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 47	7	53	2:32	Touchdown
6	SF	SF 25	8	36	1:57	Turnover on downs
7	MIN	MIN 25	4	38	1:20	Fumble
8	SF	SF 29	14	73	8:04	Fumble
9	MIN	MIN 2	12	50	2:18	End of half
10	SF	SF 25	5	1	0:45	Punt
11	MIN	MIN 30	6	10	2:59	Punt
12	SF	SF 18	3	2	0:35	Defensive touchdown
13	SF	SF 25	6	60	1:26	Turnover on downs
14	MIN	MIN 25	11	80	4:53	Touchdown
15	SF	SF 25	9	75	3:51	Touchdown
16	MIN	MIN 25	5	2	0:48	Punt
17	SF	SF 31	1	0	0:06	Interception
18	MIN	SF 38	4	-1	0:54	Punt
19	SF	SF 14	11	67	5:34	Turnover on downs
20	MIN	MIN 25	5	1	1:00	Punt
21	SF	SF 45	4	-5	1:23	Punt
22	MIN	MIN 18	9	27	3:57	Punt
23	SF	SF 11	2	0	0:14	Interception
24	MIN	SF 15	4	6	1:35	Turnover on downs

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	15/33	261	1	3	3	-13.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Matt Breida	11	46	4.2	-2.3
Alfred Morris	12	38	3.2	-6.9
Jimmy Garoppolo	2	6	3.0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	5	9	90	0	28%	2.3
Dante Pettis	2	5	61	1	16%	0.5
Kyle Juszczyk	1	2	56	0	6%	2.9
Trent Taylor	4	6	28	0	19%	-5.2
Pierre Garcon	2	6	21	0	19%	-0.5
Matt Breida	1	2	5	0	6%	-0.2
Marquise Goodwin	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Kendrick Bourne	0	1	0	0	3%	-6.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Fred Warner	11	1	0.0	1
DeForest Buckner	3	4	2.5	0
Brock Coyle	4	2	0.0	0
Jaquiski Tartt	5	1	0.0	1
Adrian Colbert	4	1	0.0	0
Arik Armstead	3	2	0.0	0
Earl Mitchell	1	3	0.0	0
K'Waun Williams	3	0	0.0	1
Elijah Lee	3	0	0.0	0
Pierre Garcon	2	0	0.0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	20/36	244	2	0	3	0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Latavius Murray	11	42	3.8	-2.7
Dalvin Cook	16	40	2.5	-11.7
Kirk Cousins	4	26	6.5	-0.2
Stefon Diggs	1	8	8.0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	6	12	102	0	34%	4.0
Dalvin Cook	6	7	55	0	20%	2.0
Stefon Diggs	3	6	43	1	17%	0.8
Laquon Treadwell	2	4	18	0	11%	-1.7
Kyle Rudolph	1	2	11	1	6%	1.2
David Morgan	1	1	9	0	3%	0.9
Tyler Conklin	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3
C.J. Ham	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Harrison Smith	6	1	1.0	1	1
Sheldon Richardson	4	2	0.5	0	0
Ben Gedeon	4	1	0.0	0	0
Linval Joseph	4	0	0.0	0	0
Eric Kendricks	4	0	0.0	0	1
Danielle Hunter	4	0	1.0	0	0
Mike Hughes	3	0	0.0	1	3
Everson Griffen	2	1	0.5	0	1
Andrew Sendejo	2	1	0.0	0	0
Holton Hill	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -6
Closing total: 46.5
SF moneyline: +238
MIN moneyline: -268

Vikings closed -6 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 40 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: SF 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Mike Zimmer