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2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco16
BY 8final margin
VikingsMinnesota24
San Francisco 49ers 16 at Minnesota Vikings 24. Final.
Vikings -6 ✓U 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 1
Minnesota Vikings 24, 49ers 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:30, 2nd and 1, on Alfred Morris — 10.6 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:30 · 2nd and 1
Alfred Morris
Vikings
(2:30) 46-A.Morris up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (98-L.Joseph). FUMBLES (98-L.Joseph), RECOVERED by MIN-22-H.Smith at MIN 2. 22-H.Smith to MIN 2 for no gain (15-P.Garcon).
Dome
Vikings closed -6 and covered, winning by 8.
Minnesota Vikings 24–16. Biggest swing: Q2 2:30, Vikings +10.6% win probability on one snap.
10.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Adam ThielenVikingsQ1 11:43(11:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen to SF 34 for 14 yards (24-K.Williams).
7.4pts
Mike HughesVikingsQ3 10:48(10:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Hughes at SF 28. 21-M.Hughes for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — 1 giveaway, against 49ers at 4 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Vikings at 4 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against 49ers at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.00 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on 49ers172 of 184 plays carry both curves
(2:30) 46-A.Morris up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (98-L.Joseph). FUMBLES (98-L.Joseph), RECOVERED by MIN-22-H.Smith at MIN 2. 22-H.Smith to MIN 2 for no gain (15-P.Garcon).
Swing +10.6 for VikingsExpected points +6.33 for VikingsThe model had 49ers 12 points higher than the market did.play 71
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:30SF +11% win prob(2:30) 46-A.Morris up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (98-L.Joseph). FUMBLES (98-L.Joseph), RECOVERED by MIN-22-H.Smith at MIN 2. 22-H.Smith to MIN 2 for no gain (15-P.Garcon).
3rd · 10:48SF +9% win prob(10:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Hughes at SF 28. 21-M.Hughes for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:43MIN +7% win prob(11:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen to SF 34 for 14 yards (24-K.Williams).
2nd · 10:33SF +6% win prob(10:33) 33-D.Cook up the middle to SF 37 for 15 yards (48-F.Warner). FUMBLES (48-F.Warner), RECOVERED by SF-25-R.Sherman at SF 29. 25-R.Sherman to SF 29 for no gain (83-T.Conklin).
2nd · 13:44MIN +5% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 15:00MIN +5% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 33-D.Cook to SF 29 for 17 yards (25-R.Sherman; 27-A.Colbert).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Daniel Carlson's 48-yard field goal with 4:00 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:00Daniel Carlson·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Wile · snap K.McDermottLead never changed again+30–3
3rd0:40Dante Pettis·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+713–24
4th8:13Robbie Gould·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap K.Nelson+316–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryVikings
49ers3–5Vikings
327Total yards343
5.4Yards per play4.8
36%Success rate35%
38%Third-down rate41%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays4
16First downs19
3Sacks taken3
4Turnovers1
The read
Vikings ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.3649ers: −0.36 expected points added per play
−0.19Vikings: −0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.3449ers: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.00Vikings: +0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.4049ers: −0.40 expected points added per play
−0.49Vikings: −0.49 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 61 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Vikings’s 71 at 61%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Vikings 3.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Vikings21.1%
inside their normal wobble · +6.6 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was MIN's sack or hit rate, 21.1% against a season mean of 14.5% — and MIN swings 9.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
52 dressed · 8 never used
69Mike McGlincheyOT · Every snap100%66 snaps
58Weston RichburgC · Every snap100%66 snaps
74Joe StaleyT · Every snap100%66 snaps
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%66 snaps
10Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
15Pierre GarconWR · Full-time80%53 snaps
85George KittleTE · Heavy rotation77%51 snaps
18Dante PettisWR · Heavy rotation73%48 snaps
81Trent TaylorWR · Heavy rotation56%37 snaps
46Alfred MorrisRB · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
76Garry GilliamOT · Rotational48%32 snaps
22Matt BreidaRB · Rotational45%30 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykRB · Rotational39%26 snaps
88Garrett CelekTE · Rotational35%23 snaps
—Michael PersonG · Rotational30%20 snaps
11Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational26%17 snaps
65Joshua GarnettOG · Situational21%14 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Situational12%8 snaps
90Earl MitchellNT · Situational2%1 snap
31Raheem MostertRB · Situational2%1 snap
89Cole WickTE · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Mike PersonCJullian TaylorDTMalcolm SmithOLBErik MagnusonOTC.J. BeathardQBMatt TobinTShon ColemanTRichie JamesWR
Minnesota Vikings
53 dressed · 9 never used
61Brett JonesT · Every snap100%71 snaps
69Rashod HillT · Every snap100%71 snaps
71Riley ReiffT · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Tom ComptonT · Every snap100%71 snaps
74Mike RemmersT · Every snap100%71 snaps
8Kirk CousinsQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Full-time96%68 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time86%61 snaps
82Kyle RudolphTE · Full-time83%59 snaps
33Dalvin CookRB · Full-time80%57 snaps
11Laquon TreadwellWR · Heavy rotation54%38 snaps
89David MorganTE · Rotational42%30 snaps
25Latavius MurrayRB · Situational20%14 snaps
30C.J. HamRB · Situational18%13 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Situational13%9 snaps
13Stacy ColeyWR · Situational8%6 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Pat ElfleinCMackensie AlexanderCBJalyn HolmesDEKyle SloterQBTrevor SiemianQBMike BooneRBRoc ThomasRBBrian O'NeillTAviante CollinsT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Morris up−15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:30) 46-A.Morris up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (98-L.Joseph). FUMBLES (98-L.Joseph), RECOVERED by MIN-22-H.Smith at MIN 2. 22-H.Smith to MIN 2 for no gain (15-P.Garcon).
Q2 2:30 · 49ers · 2nd & goal at MIN 1 · lost 1 · -6.33 EP · −15.3% win probability
170 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 82 yards from the SF 14 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
35%
Yards
670
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.0573%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.5388%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0829%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17-0.1935%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.2644%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.5120%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
49ers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
49ers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the 49ers 34
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 4 to the 49ers 23
49ers0Vikings3
Field goal7 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the 49ers 28
Punt6 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the 49ers 47
2nd quarter53 plays
49ers0Vikings9
49ers0Vikings10
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 46 to the 49ers 22
49ers3Vikings10
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Vikings 23
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 48
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Fumble lost18 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the Vikings 1
The period ended17 plays, from the Vikings 2 to the 49ers 40
3rd quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 26
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
49ers3Vikings16
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the 49ers 20
49ers3Vikings17
49ers6Vikings17
Field goal7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Vikings 15
49ers6Vikings23
49ers6Vikings24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the 49ers 6
49ers12Vikings24
49ers13Vikings24
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Vikings 17
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays
49ers16Vikings24
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the Vikings 4
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 26
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 45 to midfield
Punt11 plays, from the Vikings 18 to midfield
Intercepted2 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
49erscategory by categoryVikings
49ers0
Vikings3
