2018 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 9, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

New Orleans Saints

NO -10 upsetO 50 ✓DomeSaints closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48–40. Biggest swing: Q2 4:38, TB +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:38TB — NO NO ball · 1st & 10NO 54%

(4:38) 25-M.Gillislee left end to NO 34 for 2 yards (28-V.Hargreaves). FUMBLES (28-V.Hargreaves), RECOVERED by TB-21-J.Evans at NO 34. 21-J.Evans for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:38TB +21% win prob(4:38) 25-M.Gillislee left end to NO 34 for 2 yards (28-V.Hargreaves). FUMBLES (28-V.Hargreaves), RECOVERED by TB-21-J.Evans at NO 34. 21-J.Evans for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 3:06NO +18% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 36, YAC 14
Q3 · 12:40NO +11% win prob(12:40) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans to NO 4 for 32 yards (23-M.Lattimore) [92-M.Davenport]. PENALTY on NO-92-M.Davenport, Roughing the Passer, 2 yards, enforced at NO 4. Penalty on NO-95-T.Davison, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. Pass 19, YAC 13
Q1 · 9:51NO +11% win prob(9:51) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 11-D.Jackson for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 38, YAC 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Saints
Offensive plays	58	61
Total yards	532 (edge)	479
Yards per play	9.2 (edge)	7.9
Expected points added / play	0.45 (edge)	0.19
Success rate	48%	61% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.86 (edge)	0.38
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14 (edge)	-0.42
Third downs	8/12 (edge)	4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	22	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs 0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

37/45, 439 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

23.3 expected points added · +13.1% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

21/28, 417 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

29.2 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Peyton BarberRB

19 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

12 att, 36 yds, 1 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

16/17 for 180 yds, 1 TD

39% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

7/7 for 147 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 14.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 29	8	66	3:19	Touchdown
2	TB	TB 32	6	68	2:00	Touchdown
3	NO	NO 25	12	58	5:16	Turnover on downs
4	TB	TB 25	8	75	2:27	Touchdown
5	NO	NO 26	6	74	2:04	Touchdown
6	TB	TB 25	9	60	3:42	Turnover on downs
7	NO	NO 25	5	-1	1:30	Punt
8	TB	TB 22	11	73	5:00	Touchdown
9	NO	NO 32	2	2	0:15	Defensive touchdown
10	NO	NO 25	11	75	3:32	Touchdown
11	TB	TB 25	3	3	0:55	End of half
12	TB	TB 25	10	55	3:36	Turnover on downs
13	NO	NO 25	5	9	2:11	Punt
14	TB	TB 25	4	9	1:39	Punt
15	NO	NO 14	5	23	2:26	Punt
16	TB	TB 26	5	74	2:10	Touchdown
17	NO	NO 25	5	48	2:32	Fumble
18	TB	TB 35	7	55	3:07	Touchdown
19	NO	NO 25	12	57	3:25	Touchdown
20	TB	TB 25	8	49	4:02	Turnover on downs
21	NO	NO 34	6	68	1:21	Touchdown
22	TB	TB 25	7	11	3:31	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	21/28	417	4	0	0	29.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Peyton Barber	19	69	3.6	0	-3.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick	12	36	3.0	1	1.3
Shaun Wilson	1	6	6.0	0	-0.1
Jacquizz Rodgers	2	1	0.5	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	7	7	147	1	25%	14.0
DeSean Jackson	5	5	146	2	18%	12.4
O.J. Howard	2	2	54	0	7%	4.7
Chris Godwin	3	4	41	1	14%	3.9
Adam Humphries	3	5	27	0	18%	-0.5
Jacquizz Rodgers	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.5
Freddie Martino	0	1	0	0	4%	-2.1
Cameron Brate	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.7
Alan Cross	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Lavonte David	6	3	0
Kwon Alexander	5	4	0
Vernon Hargreaves	6	1	1
Chris Conte	5	2	0
Justin Evans	4	1	0
Ryan Smith	4	0	1
M.J. Stewart	4	0	0
Carlton Davis	3	1	0
Gerald McCoy	1	2	0
Jack Cichy	2	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	37/45	439	3	0	1	23.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	8	29	3.6	2	3.3
Mike Gillislee	3	9	3.0	0	-8.8
Ted Ginn	1	5	5.0	0	0.0
Jonathan Williams	1	0	0.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	16	17	180	1	39%	5.1
Alvin Kamara	9	12	112	1	27%	3.2
Ted Ginn	5	6	68	1	14%	4.9
Benjamin Watson	4	4	44	0	9%	5.1
Austin Carr	2	2	20	0	5%	1.4
Josh Hill	1	1	15	0	2%	1.9
Zach Line	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6
Tre'Quan Smith	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Demario Davis	5	3	0
Marcus Williams	5	1	0
Cameron Jordan	3	3	1
Ken Crawley	4	1	0
Manti Te'o	3	1	0
Tyeler Davison	1	3	0
Vonn Bell	3	1	0
Alex Anzalone	3	1	0
Kurt Coleman	1	2	0
Sheldon Rankins	1	2	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -10
Closing total: 50
TB moneyline: +385
NO moneyline: -450

Saints closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50; the game landed 88 — over by 38.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Parry
Rest: TB 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Dirk Koetter vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.