For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48 at New Orleans Saints 40. Final.
Saints -10 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48, Saints 40 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:38, 1st and 10, on Mike Gillislee — 21.4 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:38 · 1st and 10
Mike Gillislee
Buccaneers
(4:38) 25-M.Gillislee left end to NO 34 for 2 yards (28-V.Hargreaves). FUMBLES (28-V.Hargreaves), RECOVERED by TB-21-J.Evans at NO 34. 21-J.Evans for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 50 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48–40. Biggest swing: Q2 4:38, Buccaneers +21.4% win probability on one snap.
21.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mike EvansBuccaneersQ3 12:40(12:40) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans to NO 4 for 32 yards (23-M.Lattimore) [92-M.Davenport]. PENALTY on NO-92-M.Davenport, Roughing the Passer, 2 yards, enforced at NO 4. Penalty on NO-95-T.Davison, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. Pass 19, YAC 13
10.7pts
Mike EvansBuccaneersQ3 3:06(3:06) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 36, YAC 14
17.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Saints at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Saints at 7 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.86 expected points per dropback, against Saints at +0.38 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Buccaneers168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(4:38) 25-M.Gillislee left end to NO 34 for 2 yards (28-V.Hargreaves). FUMBLES (28-V.Hargreaves), RECOVERED by TB-21-J.Evans at NO 34. 21-J.Evans for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −21.4 for SaintsExpected points −8.65 for SaintsThe model had Buccaneers 23 points higher than the market did.play 72
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:38TB +21% win prob(4:38) 25-M.Gillislee left end to NO 34 for 2 yards (28-V.Hargreaves). FUMBLES (28-V.Hargreaves), RECOVERED by TB-21-J.Evans at NO 34. 21-J.Evans for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:06NO +18% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 36, YAC 14
3rd · 12:40NO +11% win prob(12:40) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans to NO 4 for 32 yards (23-M.Lattimore) [92-M.Davenport]. PENALTY on NO-92-M.Davenport, Roughing the Passer, 2 yards, enforced at NO 4. Penalty on NO-95-T.Davison, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. Pass 19, YAC 13
1st · 9:51NO +11% win prob(9:51) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 11-D.Jackson for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 38, YAC 20
2nd · 4:47NO +9% win prob(4:47) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 12-C.Godwin for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 9, YAC 0
2nd · 10:29TB +8% win prob(10:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 24 for -7 yards (97-V.Curry).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Godwin's 9-yard touchdown catch with 4:47 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Buccaneers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.86 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.45Buccaneers: +0.45 expected points added per play
+0.19Saints: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.86Buccaneers: +0.86 expected points added per play
+0.38Saints: +0.38 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Buccaneers: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.42Saints: −0.42 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 58 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Saints’s 61 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 7, Saints 6.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs 0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, +10.7 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
NO's early-down pass rate, 77.6%, sat 26.2 points above their season number of 51.3% — they passed early by 2.2 times their own 11.9-point weekly swing.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Saints5.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.6%, 26.2 points above their season mean of 51.3% and 2.2 times their own 11.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Gillislee left−16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:38) 25-M.Gillislee left end to NO 34 for 2 yards (28-V.Hargreaves). FUMBLES (28-V.Hargreaves), RECOVERED by TB-21-J.Evans at NO 34. 21-J.Evans for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 4:38 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 32 · gained 2 · -8.65 EP · −16.3% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 78 yards from the TB 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.21
Success rate
50%
Yards
1008
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.3780%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.6256%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1836%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.7190%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Buccaneers0Saints6
Buccaneers0Saints7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Buccaneers 5
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Buccaneers6Saints7
Buccaneers7Saints7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 32 to the Buccaneers 42
Buccaneers7Saints10
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 17
Buccaneers13Saints10
Buccaneers14Saints10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 3
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Saints 37
2nd quarter51 plays
Buccaneers14Saints16
Buccaneers14Saints17
Touchdown2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Buccaneers17Saints17
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 13
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 31
Buccaneers23Saints17
Buccaneers24Saints17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Saints 9
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Buccaneers30Saints17
Touchdown2 plays
Buccaneers31Saints17
Buccaneers31Saints23
Buccaneers31Saints24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 6
The period ended6 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Buccaneers34Saints24
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 2
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 34
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 34
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Saints 32
Buccaneers40Saints24
Buccaneers41Saints24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to midfield
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 44
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Buccaneers47Saints24
Buccaneers48Saints24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Saints 36
Buccaneers48Saints30
Buccaneers48Saints32
Touchdown14 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 1
No good10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 26
Buccaneers48Saints38
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Buccaneers 7
Buccaneers48Saints40
The period ended8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -10
Closing total
50
Buccaneers moneyline
+385
Saints moneyline
-450
Saints closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50; the game landed 88 — over by 38.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
John Parry
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Dirk Koetter vs Sean Payton
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 13:02NO +8% win prob(13:02) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 80-O.Howard pushed ob at NO 18 for 35 yards (24-V.Bell). Pass 19, YAC 16
1st · 2:03NO +8% win prob(2:03) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
